Intraday trading signal - page 58
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AceTraderfx Sept 18 : DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/CHF
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/CHF
18 Sep 2013 00:11GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
0.9263
55 HR EMA
0.9276
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Turning up
13 HR RSI
47
14 HR DMI
0
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 decline resumes
Resistance
0.9371 - Sep 11 high
0.9341 - Last Fri's high
0.9279 - Y'day's high
Support
0.9225 - Mon's NZ low
0.9171 - Aug 27 low
0.9147 - Aug 20 low
. USD/CHF - 0.9258.. Despite dlr's retreat after extending gain fm Mon's 2-
week low at 0.9225 to 0.9279 in Asia y'day, buying of eur/chf cross lifted price
fm 0.9253 in Europe but failure to penetrate said intra-day high prompted
another round of dlr selling in NY morning n price later dropped to 0.9257.
. Looking at the hourly chart, dlr's rebound fm 0.9225 to 0.9279 suggests
decline fm Aug's 0.9455 high has made a minor low there n another day of choppy
sideways trading abv said sup wud be seen, stronger gain twd 0.9298/01 cannot be
ruled out but as the selloff fm 0.9455 indicates correction fm Aug's low at
0.9147 has 'possibly' ended there earlier, suggesting bias for dlr remains to
the downside n measured res at 0.9313 (38.2% r of 0.9455-0.9225) shud hold n
yield decline later this week. A firm breach of 0.9225 wud extend weakness to
0.9171 (Aug 27 low) but as 'bullish converging signals' shud appear on hourly
oscillators on next decline, reckon 0.9147 low wud remain intact on 1st testing.
. In view of abv analysis, selling dlr on intra-day recovery in anticipa-
tion of another fall is still favoured. Only abv 0.9341 signals low, 0.9367/71.
AceTraderfx Sept 19 : Dollar tumbles broadly after Fed holds off on tapering stimulus
Market Review - 18/09/2013 22:05GMT
Dollar tumbles broadly after Fed holds off on tapering stimulus
The greenback tumbled broadly on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve left its key benchmark lending target, the fed funds rate, unchanged at 0.25% and kept its USD85 billion monthly asset-purchasing program in place.
The Fed said 'to keep buying $85 billion in bonds per month, split as $40 billion and $45 billion treasuries; downside risks to economic and labor market outlooks have diminished but tightening of financial conditions in recent months, if sustained, could slow pace of improvement; to keep Fed funds 0-0.25% as long as jobless rate above 6.5%, 1-2 year projected inflation no more than 2.5%, longer-term inflation expectations well anchored; asset purchases are not on a preset course and Fed decision about their pace remains contingent on its economic outlook, likely efficacy and costs; in judging whether to moderate the pace of asset purchases the committee will at coming meetings assess if data continues to support expected improvements in labor market and inflation; Fed vote in favor of policy was 9-1; George dissented from concern over potential imbalances and inflation; Raskin did not take part in meeting; recognizes inflation persistently below 2% could pose risks to economic performance, but anticipates inflation will move toward objective over medium term.'
Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback rose briefly to 99.34 in Asia, price fell sharply to 98.79 in European morning on cross buying of yen versus other currencies due to the steep fall in Japan's Nikkei futures before recovering, however, renewed selling emerged at 99.10 and dollar later tumbled to as low as 97.79 in New York afternoon after Fed kept its monetary policy unchanged.
Although the single currency dropped from Asian high of 1.3364 to 1.3338 in New York morning, renewed buying in euro crosses lifted price above said resistance at New York midday and price later rallied to a fresh 7-month peak at 1.3543 after announcement of Fed's monetary policy and the Chairman Ben Bernanke's dovish tone comments before easing.
Fed's Bernanke said in news conference following a meeting of the central bank's policy-setting that 'jobless rate above acceptable levels; downside risks to growth have eased; job conditions far from what we would like to see but progress made; fiscal conditions slowing growth by a percentage point or more this year; contours of mid term economic outlook were close to June views; but data not yet confirming baseline outlook to warrant reduction in pace of purchases; upcoming fiscal debates involve risks to market; low Fed funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as jobless rate above 6.5%; Fed funds rate increases might not occur until jobless rate considerably below 6.5%; policymakers think that headwinds to economy will abate only slowing meaning patience needed; may need to keep Federal funds rate below neutral rate for some time.'
Cable traded narrowly above Tuesday's low at 1.5986 in Asia yesterday before ratcheting higher in European morning, the pair pierced through Monday's top at 1.5963 to 1.5980 in European morning after Bank of England minutes suggested policymakers were not too concerned about rising short term market rates. Later, cable posted another rally in New York afternoon on dollar's broad-based weakness after Fed rate decision and climbed to a fresh 8-month top at 1.6163.
BoE released its minutes which stated 'no member judged more stimulus appropriate at present, different views on need for future loosening; U.K. recovery increasingly taking hold, accompanied by upward move in sterling market interest rates; U.K. recovery at least as strong as forecast in August, Euro zone recovery stronger than expected; CPI slightly more likely to be below 2.5% in 18-24 months.'
On the data front, U.S. housing starts came in at 0.891M and 0.9% m/m, versus the forecast of 0.917M and 2.3% m/m. U.S. building permits came in at 0.918M and -3.8% m/m, versus the expectation of 0.950M and -0.4% m/m.
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand GDP, Japan trade balance, import, export, all industry index, leading index, U.K. retail sales, CBI industrial trend, Canada wholesale sales, U.S. jobless claim, current account, Philadelphia Fed survey, existing homes sales, leading indicators. China will be close due to public holiday.
AceTraderfx Sept 19 : Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/SGD
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2443
19 Sep 2013 04:11GMT
Despite usd's rebound after selloff to 1.2423,
as this move signals the decline fm 1.2862 (Aug)
remains in force n yields re-test of said lvl.
Sell on recovery due to o/sold condition n only
abv 1.2536/40 suggests temp. low made, 1.2580/84.
STRATEGY : Sell at 1.2495
OBJECTIVE : 1.2435
STOP-LOSS : 1.2525
RES : 1.2464/1.2584/1.2610
SUP : 1.2464/1.2422/1.2407
AceTraderFx Sept 19: DAILY EUR/USD OUTLOOK
DAILY EUR/USD OUTLOOK - 1.3547
19 Sep 2013 08:06GMT
Y'day's rally abv 1.3453 (now sup) to as high as 1.3543 confirms erratic upmove fm Apr's low at 1.27
45 has resumed n further gain to 1.3580 is likely, however, o/bot condition shud cap price at 1.3620 n
yield a much-needed correction later.
Hold long with stop as indicated n only below 1.3453 wud risk stronger pullback to 1.3417.
STRATEGY : Hold long
POSITION : Long at 1.3510
OBJECTIVE : 1.3580
STOP-LOSS : 1.3500
RES : 1.3543/1.3580/1.3620
SUP : 1.3492/1.3453/1.3417
AceTraderFx Sept 20 : Dollar rebounds broadly on short-covering after upbeat U.S. dat
Market Review - 19/09/2013 22:15GMT
Dollar rebounds broadly on short-covering after upbeat U.S. data
The greenback pared post-FOMC losses on Thursday and gained the most against the Japanese yen. Dollar was supported against yen in New York morning due to a slew of upbeat U.S. economic data, including jobless claims, existing home sales and Philadelphia Fed survey.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback rebounded strongly in Asia session after Wednesday's selloff to 97.76 on short-covering together the rally in Japan's Nikkei index and then rallied to 99.00 in European morning on active broad-based selling of yen. Later, price rose further in New York morning on the better-than-expected U.S. jobless claims (309K versus 330K) and climbed to 99.65 after the release of the upbeat U.S. existing home sales, leading index and Philadelphia Fed survey but then retreated on profit-taking.
U.S. existing home sales came in at 5.48M and 1.7% m/m, versus the forecast of 5.25M and -2.6% m/m respectively. U.S. leading indicator was 0.7%, versus the expectation of 0.6%, previous reading is revised to 0.5%. U.S. Philadelphia Fed survey (Sep) came in at 22.3, versus the forecast of 10.3.
The single currency edged lower in Asia after a brief pullback from Wednesday's top at 1.3543 to 1.3501 in Australia and climbed to a fresh 7-month top at 1.3569 in Europe on active cross buying of euro versus sterling, price then retreated to 1.3509 in New York session on renewed dollar's broad-based rebound and profit-taking in eur/jpy cross.
The British pound traded narrowly in Asia after Wednesday's rally to a 8-month top at 1.6163 but fell sharply to 1.6063 in European morning after the release of much weaker-than-expected U.K. retail sales (-0.9% m/m and 2.1% y/y, versus the forecast of 0.4% m/m and 3.3% y/y), price later ratcheted lower to 1.6022 in New York session before stabilising.
In other news, BoE's Miles said 'U.K. growth may be becoming self-sustaining, but recovery still embryonic; too early to judge market reaction to Fed, U.K. yield curve not tied to U.S.; stronger growth main reason for his dropping call for more QE; markets may be proved right on faster jobless fall, but perhaps underestimate productivity rebound.'
ECB's Asmussen said 'Greek programme working, we see progress; Greek growth data released today is "positive and encouraging".'
Data to be released on Friday:
U.K. PSNCR, public sector net borrowing, EU consumer confidence, Canada CPI on Friday. China will be closed due to public holiday.
AceTraderfx Sept 23: Dollar rises against yen on hawkish comments from Fed's Bullard
Market Review - 22/09/2013 23:24GMT
Dollar rises against yen on hawkish comments from Fed's Bullard
The greenback strengthened against yen on Friday after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said it is possible to taper stimulus measures in October, depending on U.S. economic data.
Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback dropped briefly to 99.17 in Asian session, the pair traded narrowly in Europe but then pierced through Thursday's high at 99.63 to 99.67 in New York morning due to the comments from Fed's Bullard as he said policy changes were possible at the Fed's October meeting depending on U.S. economic data.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said 'the transparency cat is out the bag" for the Fed; increase in rates over the summer was "a surprise" for many FOMC; don't want to lose the focus on inflation; we should defend our inflation target from the low side; October meeting is live, policy changes possible depending on U.S. economic data.'
The single currency traded narrowly in Asia as several centres in the Far East were closed for holiday. Although price edged higher briefly to 1.3549 in European morning, euro then ratcheted lower to 1.3507 in New York morning, price later dropped to session low at 1.3498 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based strength before cross-buying of euro lifted price back to 1.3537.
Although the British pound edged higher from Thursday's low at 1.6022 in Asia and climbed to 1.6067 in European morning, renewed cross selling of sterling versus euro and yen pressured the pair below 1.6022 to 1.5990 and then marginal lower to 1.5986 in New York morning before staging a recovery to 1.6027 later in the day.
In other news, BoJ governor Kuroda said 'BoJ will maintain aim of QE for as long as needed to stably achieve 2% inflation'; 'hope to offset upward pressure on JGB yields from Japan's economic improvement; Japan's domestic demand likely to remain strong, economy steadily heading toward meeting BoJ price goal.' Italy Economic Minister Saccomanni said 'lower yields depend on political stability, continued reforms; important slight overshoot in 2013 deficit is corrected quickly; risks to growth recovery are fiscal slippage, lack of reforms, high yields, political instability.'
On the data front, U.K. PSNB and PSNCR came in at 11.5B and -3.0B, versus the forecast of 11.09B and 5.2B respectively. Eurozone consumer confidence came in at -14.9, weaker than the forecast of -14.5.
Data to be released next week :
China HSBC manufacturing PMI, France service PMI, manufacturing PMI, Germany Service PMI, manufacturing PMI, EU service PMI, manufacturing PMI, U.S. Chicago Fed index, Markit PMI on Monday. Japan's financial markets will be closed due to public holiday.
U.K. BBA mortgage approvals, Germany IFO business climate, current assessment, Canada retail sales, U.S. retail sales, house price index, S&P house price index, consumer confidence on Tuesday.
New Zealand trade balance, exports import, Japan machine tool orders, Swiss consumption indicator, France business climate, Italy consumer confidence, U.K. CBI distributive trades, U.S. durable goods, new home sales on Wednesday.
France consumer confidence, U.K. current account, GDP, U.S. GDP, PCE core, jobless claims, personal consumption, pending home sales on Thursday.
Japan CPI, U.K. consumer confidence, business barometer, France GDP, Swiss leading indicator, EU business climate, economic sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP, U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE , University of Michigan consumer confidence on Friday.
AceTraderfx Sept 23 : Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1075.6
23 Sep 2013 05:39GMT
As usd has remained under pressure after the resumption of fall fm 1163.5 (Jul), suggesting down-
side bias is seen for further losses to 1069.8.
Trade fm short side with stop as inidcated, abv wud risk stronger gain to 1082.0, 1086.8.
STRATEGY : Short at 1075.4
POSITION : Short at 1075.4
OBJECTIVE : 1070.0
STOP-LOSS : 1078.4
RES : 1078.3/1082.0/1086.8
SUP : 1069.8/1056.4/1054.5
AceTraderfx Sept 24 : Euro weakens on weaker-than-expected manufacturing PMI
Market Review - 23/09/2013 22:10GMT
Euro weakens on weaker-than-expected manufacturing PMI
The single currency opened higher and rose to an intra-day high of 1.3555 at New Zealand open after voters in Germany gave Angela Merkel a third term as Chancellor in elections held on Sunday. Price retreated in Asian morning and traded sideways before falling to 1.3508 in European morning after the release of weaker-than-expected Germany and EU manufacturing PMI data. Euro remained under pressure in New York morning and dropped to a session low at 1.3480 before stabilising.
Germany manufacturing PMI (flash) in September came in 51.3, worse than the forecast of 52.2. EU manufacturing PMI (flash) in September came in 51.1, worse than the forecast of 51.8.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback remained under pressure in Asia and retreated to 98.86 in European morning on continued expectations that the Fed will not taper its bond purchases anytime soon. Price dropped to an intra-day low at 98.65 after Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said policy makers must “forcefully” push against economic headwinds.
The British pound traded with a firm undertone in Australia and strengthened to 1.6032 in Asian morning before rising to an intra-day high at 1.6073 due to cross-buying of sterling vs euro (eru/gbp fell from 0.8475 to 0.8404). However, price pared intra-day gains and retreated to 1.6017 in New York morning before stabilising.
In other news, ECB's Draghi said 'expects recovery to continue in current quarter despite weak industrial production in July; underlying price pressures in Euro zone expected to remain subdued; inflation risks are broadly balanced; ECB monetary policy stance will remain accommodative for as long as necessary.'
On the data front, U.S. Markit PMI preliminary (Sep) came in at 52.8, vs the forecast of 54.0. U.S. Chicago Fed index (Aug) came in at 0.14, vs the forecast of -0.05, previous reading is revised to -0.43.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
U.K. BBA mortgage approvals, Germany IFO business climate and current assessment, Canada retail sales, U.S. retail sales, house price index, S&P house price index and consumer confidence.
AceTraderfx Sept 24
aily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11485
24 Sep 2013 01:12GMT
Dlr's strg rebound fm 11270 (last Thur) signals
the fall fm 11520 is possibly over n upside bias
is seen for re-test of said lvl, then 11590.
Trade fm long side with stop as indicated, only
below 11350 wud risk stronger retrace. to 11270.
STRATEGY : Long at 11500
POSITION : Long at 11500
OBJECTIVE : 11600
STOP-LOSS : 11450
RES : 11520/11590/11700
SUP : 11350/11270/11200
AceTraderFx Sept 24 : Daily Market Outlook on Major GBP/USD
DAILY GBP/USD OUTLOOK - 1.6029
24 Sep 2013 07:26GMT
Despite sterling's retreat fm 1.6073 to 1.6017 in NY y'day, below said sup needed to signal recovery fm 1.5986 (Fri) has ended n bring resumption of decline fm last Wed's 8-month peak at 1.6163 to 1.5958, 'loss of momentum' wud keep cable abv 1.5920/25.
Sell again on intra-day recovery as only abv 1.6100 indicates pullback is over, risks 1.6142/47.
STRATEGY : Sell at 1.6060
OBJECTIVE : 1.5965
STOP-LOSS : 1.6098
RES : 1.6073/1.6100/1.6163
SUP : 1.6017/1.5986/1.5958