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AceTraderfx Sept 12 : Euro strengthens against dollar on easing concerns over Syria
Market Review - 11/09/2013 22:22GMT
Euro strengthens against dollar on easing concerns over Syria
The single currency rose to a 1-1/2 week high against the dollar on Wednesday as concerns over Syria eased after the White House confirmed that President Obama is in talks with France and Britain about getting a United Nations resolution to hold Syria to its apparent commitment to place its chemical weapons under international control.
During the day, despite euro's initial drop from Asian high of 1.3282 to 1.3244 in European morning, improved risk appetite due to easing concerns over Syria lifted price higher in New York morning and euro later rose to a fresh 1/2-week peak at 1.3325 before easing.
Versus the Japanese yen, although dollar extended gain to a fresh 7-week high of 100.62 in Asia following the rally in previous session, profit-taking pressured price from there and dollar later ratcheted lower in European trading to 100.08 and fell further to 99.79 in New York on broad-based weakness in greenback before stabilising.
The British pound traded narrowly below Tuesday's high of 1.5745 in Asia but found support at 1.5719. Cable later rallied to a 7-month peak at 1.5827 after unexpectedly strong U.K. jobless claim data in European morning but only to retreat to 1.5755 on renewed cross-selling in sterling. Later, dollar's broad-based weakness lifted pound again in New York trading and cable penetrate 1.5827 to session high at 1.5829.
U.K. Office for National Statistics reported on Wednesday that unemployment rate in the U.K. declined to 7.7 percent in the period from May to July, from 7.8 percent in the February to April period. Meanwhile, the claimant count change declined by 32,600 in August, compared to a decline of 36,300 in the previous month, but better than market's expectations of a drop of 21,000.
In the other news, BOJ board member Ishida said earlier on Wednesday that 'Japan's economy expected to continue moderate recovery; government efforts to restore confidence in Japan's economic growth; exports must start serving more as driver of Japan's econ growth; expect to see clear CPI rises for the being; price rises may broaden if personal consumption remains strong; rise in regular pay, rather than bonuses, more effective in boosting consumer spending; Fed's tapering may weigh on other countries' growth by raising long-term interest rates; econ recovery won't be sustained unless household income rises in tandem with price gains.'
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand RBNZ rate decision, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Japan machinery orders, German WPI, France HICP, CPI, Italy industrial production, CPI, HICP, EU industrial production, Canada new housing price index, U.S. jobless claims, import price index, export price index, and Fed budget.
AceTraderfx Sept 12, 2013 : Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 10520
12 Sep 2013 06:57GMT
Usd's breach of Tue's high at 10500 confirms LT
upmove fm 8455 has resumed n upside bias is seen
for 11590 n 11700 but 11800 shud hold from here.
Trade fm long side with stop as indicated, be-
low wud risk weakness twd 11300, 11200.
STRATEGY : Long at 10510
POSITION : Long at 10510
OBJECTIVE : 11700
STOP-LOSS : 11450
RES : 11590/11700/11800
SUP : 11450/11300/11200
AceTraderfx Sept 13 : The greenback falls on fading expectation of Fed's tapering
Market Review - 12/09/2013 22:29GMT
The greenback falls on fading expectation of Fed's tapering
The U.S. dollar weakened broadly on Thursday as doubts over whether the Federal Reserve will start tapering stimulus on the Federal Reserve's policy decision next week persisted after last week’s U.S. jobs report.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell sharply last week to 287K versus previous reading of 323K, dropping to the lowest level since 2006, however, the report said the decline was largely due to two states not processing all their claims because of computer upgrades.
Versus the yen, the dollar continued to move lower in Asia and extended fall from Wednesday's high of 100.62 to 99.20 at European open, however, the release of sharp drop in U.S. claims lifted price briefly to 99.73 in New York morning. Later, dollar's broad-based weakness pressured price again and the pair tanked to a fresh session low at 99.00 in New York afternoon before recovering.
The single currency retreated versus U.S. dollar in Asia after failure to penetrate Wednesday's high of 1.3325 and ratcheted lower in Europe in part due to active cross-selling of euro, price tanked to a session low of 1.3256 in New York morning after release of U.S. jobs report but climbed back above 1.3300 level to 1.3325 again later in the day due to dollar's broad-based weakness, last seen around 1.3300 near New York closing.
On the data front, report showed that industrial production in the euro area fell by 1.5 percent in July, the biggest drop in 12 months, and declined 2.1% on year-to-year basis to the lowest level since April 2010.
Cable dropped in tandem with euro in Asia and European trading and briefly fell to 1.5776 in New York morning, however, renewed dollar's broad-based weakness lifted price from there and cable later rose above Wednesday's high of 1.5832 to a fresh 7-month peak at 1.5840 before profit-taking pressured price to 1.5805.
In the other news, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said on Thursday that 'if recovery were to falter, we would consider providing extra stimulus; economy is picking up, stimulus is working; although it is early days, we think we are on path to return inflation to 2%; one-member-one vote MPC is a strength of UK monetary policy system; uncertainties on UK productivity and labour market slack are larger than usual; new MPC members will need to declare if they will operate under forward guidance; rise in long-term interest rates in advanced economies is because of stronger growth outlook; need to make sure this is not another false dawn; sustainable rebalancing of U.K. economy requires return to productivity growth above what BoE forecasts; I am not afraid to raise interest rate if appropriate.'
In commodity currencies, RBNZ kept benchmark rate at 2.5 percent on Thursday but signalled interest rate hike next year, New Zealand dollar rose to a 3-week high of 0.8158 after the hawkish statement before easing. Meanwhile, Australian dollar tumbled from a near 3-month peak at 0.9355 to as low as 0.9227 after Australian employment change posted its worst showing in five months, a decrease of 10.8K versus market expectation of a gain of 10.0K and declined for the second straight month.
Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand Business NZ PMI, ANZ consumer confidence, Japan industrial production, capacity utilization, EU trade balance, U.S. PPI, retail sales, university of Michigan consumer confidence, and business inventories.
AceTraderfx Sept 13, 2013 : DAILY USD/CHF OUTLOOK
DAILY USD/CHF OUTLOOK - 0.9324
13 Sep 2013 07:10GMT
Although dlr has recovered after extending fall
fm last Thur's 6-week 0.9455 high to 0.9272 y'day,
as long as 0.9371 holds, aforesaid decline to re-
trace upmove fm Aug's low at 0.9147 shud resume n
extend marginally to 0.9265 (61.8% r).
Trade fm short side for this move with stop abv
0.9371, break risks gain to 0.9395 n 0.9420/30.
STRATEGY : Hold short
POSITION : Short at 0.9340
OBJECTIVE : 0.9270
STOP-LOSS : 0.9375
RES : 0.9335/0.9371/0.9395
SUP : 0.9272/0.9239/0.9206
AceTraderfx Sept 16 : Dollar ends mixed ahead of Fed meeting
Market Review- 15/09/201323:16GMT
Dollar ends mixed ahead of Fed meeting
The greenback was mixed against other major currencies on Friday, after the release of a slew of disappointing U.S. economic reports as investors turned to the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting next week.
Versus the Japanese yen, despite an initial rebound to 99.98 in Asian morning, cross-buying of yen pressured price lower in European trading and dollar later weakened further in New York morning after release of a slew of disappointing U.S. economic reports, price fell to sessions low of 99.19 in New York afternoon.
U.S. retail sales rose 0.2 percent in August, lower than street forecast for a 0.4 percent increase, after an upwardly revised 0.4 percent gain the previous month, while core retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose 0.1 percent last month, also less than forecast for a 0.3 percent gain, after an upwardly revised 0.6 percent increase in July. Later, the preliminary September consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan dropped to 76.8 from previous reading of 82.1 as lenders have hiked mortgage and other interest rates sharply this summer in anticipation of a pullback by the Federal Reserve of one of its major stimulus programs.
The single currency went through a roller-coaster session versus U.S. dollar on Friday. Although the pair came under selling pressre at Asian open on Japanese business daily Nikkei report that former U.S. treasury secretary Lawrence Summers (1999-2001) would likely be named as the next Federal Reserve Chief after the FOMC's Sept.17-18 meeting, market perceived Summers as less dovish than the other leading contender Janet Yellen. Ben Bernanke's term as Fed chairman will end in January, 2014.
Euro fell to 1.3264 ahead of European open and then rebounded to 1.3322 in New York morning after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales, however, renewed active cross-selling of euro versus yen and the pound pressured knocked price lower and the single currency briefly penetrated Thursday's low of 1.3256 to 1.3254 but only to climb back above 1.3310 in New York afternoon session.
Eur/jpy tanked from intra-day high of 132.65 and dropped marginally below Thursday's low at 131.72 to 131.66 in New York morning, whilst eur/gbp tumbled to a fresh 7-month trough at 0.8357 before recovering.
The British pound extended recent upmove Friday and ralled after finding renewed buying at 1.5776 ahead of European open as hopes for the Bank of England to raise interest rates sooner than expected continued to support sterling. Dollar's broad-based weakness after the release of a slew of disappointing U.S. consumer data pushed cable above Thursday's high of 1.5840 and the pair later climbed to a fresh 7-month peak at 1.5885 in New York afternoon.
In the other news, Japan government upgraded economic assessment in September, said 'economy headed toward gradual recovery; upgrades capital expenditure, signs of recovery can be seen in services sector; downgrades assessment of consumer spending and exports; maintains view that end of deflation is approaching.'
Data to be released next week :
Monday: U.K. Rightmove house price, Italy trade balance, current account, EU CPI, Canada existing home sales, U.S. empire state manufacturing, industrial production, Capacity utilization. Japan financial market is closed due to public holiday.
Tuesday: Australia RBA September minutes, EU current account, economic sentiment, trade balance, U.K. PPI, RPI, CPI, ONS house price, Germany economic sentiment, current condition, U.S. CPI, retail sales, Net LT TIC flows, NAHB housing market index.
Wednesday:Australia leading index, U.K. BOE MPC minutes, Swiss Zew index, U.S. rate decision, housing starts, building permits
Thursday: New Zealand GDP, Japan trade balance, import, export, all industry index, leading index, U.K. retail sales, CBI industrial trend, Canada wholesale sales, U.S. jobless claim, current account, Philadelphia Fed survey, existing homes sales, leading indicators. China financial market will be close due to public holiday.
Friday: U.K. PSNCR, public sector net borrowing, EU consumer confidence, Canada CPI. China financial markets will be close due to public holiday.
AceTraderfx Sept 16 : Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1082.3
16 Sep 2013 00:02GMT
Despite usd's rebound fm 1081.5 to 1088.3 (last
fri), subsequent retreat suggests consolidation
with downside bias is seen for re-test of said lvl.
Stand aside and look to sell on recovery, only
abv 1089.7 wud risk stronger gain to 1093.8.
STRATEGY : Stand aside
RES : 1088.3/1089.7/1093.8
SUP : 1081.5/1079.9/1076.6
AceTraderfx Sept 17: Dollar drops broadly as Summers withdrew from the race for Fed..
Market Review - 16/09/2013 22:17GMT
Dollar drops broadly as Summers withdrew from the race for Fed chief
The greenback weakened against other currencies on Monday as former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, who was perceived by market as relatively hawkish, announced on Sunday to withdraw from the nomination to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.
The single currency rose shortly after New Zealand open and climbed to 1.3382 in Australia on dollar's broad-based weakness when the news came that Lawrence Summers, a former top aide to President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary under President Bill Clinton, withdrew from nomination to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Sunday.
Euro then traded narrowly in Asia and dropped to 1.3340 in Europe on cross selling of euro versus yen but dollar's decline after release of weaker-than-expected U.S. Empire State manufacturing index pushed the pair to a fresh 2-week top at 1.3385 in New York morning before retreating to 1.3330 on profit-taking.
U.S.'s Empire state manufacturing (Sep) came in at 6.29, weaker than the forecast of 9.00.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback opened lower and tanked to 98.45 in New Zealand on dollar's weakness as former Treasury Secretary Summers withdrew from the race to be next Fed chief. Later, despite cross-induced recovery to 99.11 in Asia, the pair ratcheted lower to 98.70 in Europe and fell further to 98.65 in New York morning due to the weaker-than-expected U.S. Empire State manufacturing index before staging another bounce to 99.18 near New York close.
The British pound rose strongly to 1.5951 in New Zealand due to dollar's broad-based weakness and edged higher to 1.5958 in Asian morning. Later, despite subsequent retreat to 1.5916 in European session, renewed buying interest pushed the pair to a fresh near 8-month top at 1.5963 in New York morning before profit-taking pressured price to 1.5895 near New York close.
In other news, ECB's Praet said 'euro zone recovery is still fragile; sees euro zone inflation moderate to mid-term; monetary policy aims at remaining accommodative.' ECB's Mersch said 'we see very tentative green shoots for Europe economy, need to manage with great care; there are positive signs we see on horizon for world economic recovery; there is no consideration of interest hike by ECB anywhere in near future.' ECB's Draghi says 'Euro zone economy remains fragile, unemployment far too high; given subdued inflation outlook, expect key interest rates to remain at current or lower levels for extended period of time; Euro zone recovery "fragile".'
On the data front, EU CPI came in at 0.1% m/m and 1.3% y/y and CPI core was 1.1% y/y, same as the expectations. U.S. industrial production in August came in at 0.4%, versus the forecast of 0.4%. U.S.'s capacity utilisation was 77.8%, versus the expectation of 77.9%.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia RBA September minutes, EU current account, economic sentiment, trade balance, U.K. PPI, RPI, CPI, ONS house price, Germany economic sentiment, current condition, U.S. CPI, retail sales, Net LT TIC flows, NAHB housing market index.
AceTraderforex Sept 17 : Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK – 11465
17 Sep 2013 05:08GMT
Dlr's rebound fm 11350 y'day signals pullback fm
last Thur's 4-yr peak at 11520 has possibly ended n
abv said res wud extend uptrend to 11550, 11600.
Buy on dips for this move n only below 11350
risks stronger retrace. to 11300 b4 recovery.
STRATEGY : Buy at 11450
OBJECTIVE : 11550
STOP-LOSS : 11400
RES : 11520/11590/11700
SUP : 11350/11300/11200
AceTraderFx Sept 17 : DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
17 Sep 2013 04:01GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
1.3341
55 HR EMA
1.3328
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Turning down
13 HR RSI
47
14 HR DMI
0
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 upmove resumes
Resistance
1.3453 - Aug 20 high
1.3410 - Aug 23 high
1.3385 - Y'day's high
Support
1.3325 - Sep 11 high
1.3298 - Y'day's low
1.3254 - Last Fri's low
. EUR/USD - 1.3335 ... The single currency jumped to 1.3382 in NZ after WSJ reported that former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers withdrew his nomination for Chairman of the Federal Reserve, euro retreated briefly to 1.3340 b4 rising to 1.3385 but only to fall to 1.3330 near NY close.
. Looking at the hourly & daily charts, although euro's retreat fm y'day's
2-week high at 1.3385 suggests 1-2 days of consolidation wud be seen with initial downside bias, as early rally fm this month's low at 1.3105 signals the
correction fm Aug's 6-month high at 1.3453 has ended there, reckon pullback wud be ltd n as long as 1.3298 sup holds, bullishness remains for aforesaid upmove to resume n extend marginal gain twds 1.3410, however, as 'bearish divergences' wud appear on hourly oscillators on such move, suggesting key daily res at 1.3453 shud hold on 1st testing n yield retreat later.
. Today, buying euro on dips is still favoured in expectation of such rise. On the downside, only a breach of 1.3254 sup (last Fri's low) wud signal top is made n further 'gyration' inside 1.3105-1.3453 wud be seen with downside bias.
AceTraderfx Sept 18: Euro rebounds on upbeat German economic sentiment
Market Review- 17/09/2013 22:24GMT
Euro rebounds on upbeat German economic sentiment
The single currency rose against other currencies in European session on Tuesday after the release strong German ZEW economic sentiment, however, euro pared some gains in New York session ahead of the end of 2-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday as the policymakers are expected to make a minor reduction its stimulus measures.
Earlier in Asia, despite euro's brief dip to 1.3325, the pair ratcheted higher to 1.3369 in Europe following the upbeat euro zone and Germany ZEW economic sentiments and then climbed to sessions high of 1.3370 in New York morning, however, cross selling of euro versus sterling pressured price to 1.3337 and later traded narrowly sideways for the rest of the day.
German ZEW economic sentiment and current condition indices came in at 49.6, the highest since Apr 2010, and 30.6, much better than the forecasts of 45.0 and 20.0. Euro zone ZEW economic sentiment index was 58.6, better than the expectation of 47.6. ZEW economist said 'main reason for jump in sentiment was good GDP data; inflation expectations unchanged over last month; we see a reflection of higher expectations of growth, especially for export-oriented sectors; strong surprise that Euro zone came out of recession; outlook for private consumption also improved but not as strongly for export-oriented sectors.'
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback extended rise from Monday's low at 98.45 to 99.36 in Asian morning. Although the pair edged lower to 99.04 in New York morning after the release of U.S. CPI (0.1% m/m and 1.5% y/y, versus the forecast of 0.2% m/m and 1.6% y/y), renewed buying interest lifted the pair to intra-day high of 99.38 due partly to the surprise U.S. net long-term TIC inflow data, which came in at $31.1 billion, versus the forecast of an outflow of $15 billions.
Although the British pound retreated from Monday's near 8-month top at 1.5963 to 1.5889 in Asian morning on profit-taking, the pair then rebounded in tandem with euro to 1.5936 in Europe but then quickly fell to 1.5886 after the release of tepid U.K. inflation data, month-on-month core CPI came in at 0.4% m/m, the slowest monthly increase since 2009, and 2.7% y/y, versus the expectation of 0.5% and 2.7% respectively. Cable traded narrowly in New York session above said intra-day low and closed at 1.5904.
On the data front, U.K. RPI came in at 0.5% m/m and 3.3% y/y, versus the forecast of 0.4% m/m and 3.2% y/y whilst ONS house price was at 3.3% y/y, vs the forecast of 3.4%. U.S. NAHB housing mrkt index (Sep) came in at 58, same as the forecast.
In other news, Reserve Bank of Australia minutes stated 'board agreed to keep open possibility of further rate cuts; neither was the board signaling an imminent intention to reduce rates; Australian dollar still high, some further decline would help compensate for drop in mining investment; outlook for non-mining investment still subdued business reluctant to take on risk; strong growth in commodity exports expected to continue for some years.' U.S. Treasury Secretary Lew said 'congress should raise debt ceiling as soon as possible, could be "very dangerous" to try to time a last minute increase; would be "unworkable" to try to prioritize payment obligations if U.S. government ran out of cash; president Obama will not negotiate over debt ceiling, will not accept measures to tie debt limit increase to defunding or delaying Obamacare.'
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia leading index, U.K. BOE MPC minutes, Swiss Zew index, U.S. housing starts, building permits and FOMC rate decision and policy announcement.