RAS signal providers presentation - page 8
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Couldn`t say it better
Members and traders,
quite often i get private Emails asking me about certain trading systems in general. I like to share my experience of many years trading with you with respect to automated trading systems.
All these thoughts have been incorporated into our own trading and i hope you will understand and maybe later appreaciate the way we/i trade our systems and managed accounts.
First of all, there is no "no loss" system existing, neither there is a holy grail anywhere in the world.
My classification is much easier, i have only one condition to measure the quality of a system and that is performance over a longer time period.
I will not go over certain systems in particular, but rather give some thoughts about all systems related to MT4 trading.
1.Over the years, thousands of Expert Advisors for MT4 have been developed. Many in free forums with source code and many in closed trader forums. As of this year, mass marketing of commercial experts has been observed, beeing FAP Turbo one of the first and truly successful at first.
Unfortunatly, almost all deemed profitable EA`s are not released with open source code.
This is like a Formula 1 race driver, starting in a race with a car, he has not seen or even driven before. Even a Michael Schumacher may not finish first place with such a car.
Instead potential traders are presented backtests, which should prove the outstanding quality and profitability of the particular method.
We do take backtests with known data sources and test the general profitability and settings.
These results are never correct, nor any indication how a system will trade in real markets.
They are a rough indication only.
As a new alternative, some system developers show their Demo statements with undisclosed brokers and publish them on MT4 stats pages, as proof of profitability.
While this is better than just backtests, it still does not reflect trading in the real market. Too many times Demo accounts trade much better than real accounts with the same broker, because of marketing reasons of the broker.
I assume, that system developers deliberatly pick these brokers for Demo testing.
All trading on Demo accounts is better than just backtesting, but has to be taken with a grain of salt.
Only forward live trading can show reliable results to a certain extent.
Even two identical live MT4 accounts with the very same broker trade differently.
2.A very easy overlooked number is the Drawdown.
Looking at a backtest with 20% Drawdown and a profit of 100% annual gain appears great on paper with a glass of red wine in a traders hand.
Trading that in a live account and beeing down by 20% real cash is a total different feeling.
Where is the difference?
In the first case, the trader has the confidence of hindsight, he knows already the outcome, while in case 2, he does not know, just yet.
This psycological effect is detrimental to many traders, since they immeadiatly start questioning the viability and profitability of this system in particular.
Most of the time, the system is trashed by the trader and found unreliable and bad.
If the system is really profitable and results are inline with forward and backtests, the system is still almost exactly performing like advertised.
3.Psycological effects
Too many times, traders have put a deemed great system on live accounts, just to see it drain the account from day 1.
This really stresses and is painful to watch.
The question always remains:
Why me? The system traded great the past 6 months and the day i start, it makes losses.
Please review live statements month by month to eliminate the effect of hindsight. The system might have had a similar period, but you simply overlooked it, because you were focused on end results, but rather what happened in between.
4.Money Management
Too many traders use a far too aggressive money management in Forex. A tradesize vs account size of more than 3:1 is high risk. Using 10:1 is possible for smaller accounts with play money.
Any tradesize beyond 10:1 to account size is gambling and not trading.
Too often traders start out with just too little equity in the accounts. As a rule of thumb, you should be able to add to your trading accounts the amounts in Drawdown within 2 days to fill up your account again and trade with a stable equity.
Why that?
If you are in a Drawdown situation, it is necessary to have a much higher performance than before. This is much easier with your initial capital, than with 10-15% less.
Be prepared for that at the beginning of your trading, not when you are already with 30% in profits.
Please address all questions you might have to that thread.
Some of you already know my postings in FXAW for almost 2 years and i hope that you can agree, that i am trying to be as honest as possible about my own trading.
I will share my thoughts and my personal thinking after trading sessions in this forum for better understanding what is happening during my day.
This will be the most personal section of this forum and you will hopefully be able to "feel" with me.
JanusJanus,
"Looking at a backtest with 20% Drawdown and a profit of 100% annual gain appears great on paper with a glass of red wine in a traders hand.
Trading that in a live account and beeing down by 20% real cash is a total different feeling."
I couldn`t have said it better....a totally different feeling....I have been there,done that,got the medal...and got the scars
Keep up your good work.
Regards
S
Do I have to be member in elite section to get this service?
Thank you.
Nice performance, but I did not get the performance for GBPUSD
How to turn a mouse into a lion
Members,
unfortunatly the RAS founders make no difference between trading systems and gambling.
In the past few days a very interesting discussion has started about certain systems and i , on behalf of Janus Trading, like to take the opportunity to point out some of our concerns about some startegies:
1.Several systems on RAS are trading pure or hybrid Martingale strategies and publish returns of 100% per month. While this appears on the first look very promising, there is an often overlooked risk.
All of these systems risk 100% of traders capital and trade with way overleveraged positions, which will cause margin calls on very small movements.
Even, if a system has a 50% equity stop, you are still exposed losing 50% of your trading capital.
The only difference to the 100% exposure right from the beginning is, that you can have the equity stop triggered 2x in a row.
There are systems offered on this website, which deliberatly mislead traders about the actual risk.
If you invest 10 000USD and are willing to risk 5000USD, than there is no assurance, that you will not lose 2x in a row your 5000USD risk money.
Lesson 1:
A trader, who loses almost all of his trading capital is out of business.
Strategies, which already expose traders capital to that risk, put a trader already at the edge.
2.Unfortunatly the statistics page of the RAS website is so bad, that anybody can simply alter timeperiods in the system graph or put different minimum equity on it and have a very profitable system "look" as a losing one.
Lesson 2:
When checking systems, please look at the "start date" and the "total USD" in the very right column first. Than you already know, whether a system has made money or not and during what timeperiod
3.Tradeleverage:
There seems to be a total misunderstanding between 2 very important words:
1.Account leverage
2.Tradeleverage/Positionsize
1.Account leverage is the amount of margin your broker requires to open and maintain a position.
For a 100 000Currency unit position, you usually need 1000CU to open and maintain this position.
Account leverage is 1:100
This number has absolutly nothing to do with:
2.Tradeleverage/Positionsize:
This number is the relation between account equity and the size of your total positions open.
If you have 1000 USD in your trading account and trade 0.01 lots(standard account), your tradeleverage is 1, because you are trading exactly the amount of equity , that you have in your account.
Trading 0.1 lots(standard account) puts you already on a 10:1 tradeleverage, since you are trading a position, which is 10x higher, than your account equity.
A solid risk management never uses a tradeleverage of more than 10:1 on small accounts and never more than 4:1 on large accounts.
Any tradeleverage, which is beyond 10:1 is highly dangerous and exposes your account to an unacceptable risk.
Now let`s look at some details:
TriggerFX=RAS ID 515
Mt4 stats here:
MT4 Stats - Share your MetaTrader 4 Statements with the world
System description here:
TriggerFX | Rent a Signal
This system trades 0.01 lots on a 10 000USD account and had as maximum 9 active orders(positions) open in its history.
What does that mean?
9x 0.01(1000)= 9000 is a tradeleverage<1=ultralow risk
RAS website states the maximum drawdown at 380USD, which equals 3.8% of the total equity of 10 000USD.
On the other hand, the statistics at RAS post a total profit in a little over 6 months of 1330 USD, or 13.3% of 10 000USD in equity
Summary:
-System has a 6+month track record
-System is profitable
-System has very low tradeleverage
-System had very low Drawdown
Conclusion= Very Low Risk
Now let`s modify the system and multiply the tradeleverage by factor 10 with the very same account equity:
-Account equity= 10 000USD
-Tradeleverage max: 9x 0.1(10 000USD)=90 000USD=9
-Drawdown= 3800 USD= 38% of account equity
-Profit= 13 300 USD= 133% of account equity
While profits appear great, the Drawdown is unacceptable, but more important is the tradeleverage factor way too high(9).
This would turn the original TriggerFX system into a very scary adventure and expose traders capital beyond acceptable levels.
Conclusion:
Very High Risk
Unfortunatly many subscribers to RAS are not seeking consistant systems, but rather the become rich quick ones.
Please note, that RAS EA allows any subscriber to chose own risk appetite:
-If you are a gambler, you can trade TriggerFX with 10x higher Lotsize factor
-If you are a serious trader, you simply leave the lotsize factor at 1
A system, delivering 13.3% return in 6 months with a Drawdown of <4% is reagarded as outstanding in the real investment world.
Please keep that always in mind, when you chose your personal trading system.
Janus
More about our company can be found:
Home
Performance
@knife
what do you mean by:
"Nice performance, but I did not get the performance for GBPUSD "
1.You have been trading the system and did not achieve the same returns?
How come, you never appeared as subscribed
2.You did not understand, how performance is calculated?
Janus
Rentasignal
Home | Rent a Signal
is the trading system website of Forex-TSD, where you can subscribe to many trading signals.
TriggerFX system is offered here for subscription and comes with a 7 day free trail.
TriggerFX | Rent a Signal
Our Flagship EUR-USD system, called Swingtrader EUR-USD van be found here:
Swing Trader EUR-USD | Rent a Signal
Quick numbers:
System start: 1st March 2009
Total USD: 5065 USD on a 10 000USD account=50.65%
Max.DD= 2780USD= 27.8%
Please adjust your lotsize factor according to your risk appetite.
Example: If you like to have no more than 10% Drawdown, you trade 30% of the lotsize.
Flagship GBP-USD, called Positiontrader GBP-USD found here:
Positiontrader GBP-USD | Rent a Signal
Quick numbers:
System start: 7th March 2009
Total USD: 11 875USD on a recommended 35 000USD account=30%
Max.DD= 3963USD=12%
All systems have a 7 day free trail, so you can test first, before you pay
Janus
new RAS 21752
hello all,
that ras signals provide few EA stredagy's
DD very low and consist profit:
please check my fxbook for more information:
http://www.rentasignal.com/signal/view/21752
best
ram
Auto FX ID:21180
Hi all,
The Auto FX system can trades on any market, any pairs and any time-frame.
Broker: Alpari (UK)
Leverage: 1.500
Start lot size: 0.10 lot/10k
Minimum account: $10,000
ID: 21706: Auto FX | Rent a Signal
ID: 21808: Auto FX01 | Rent a Signal
ID: 21809: Auto FX02 | Rent a Signal
ID: 21810: Auto FX03 | Rent a Signal
ID: 21811: Auto FX04 | Rent a Signal
All systems with 10%* profit per month. Guaranteed!
I am offering clients managed accounts service:
Minimum Deposit: $10,000
Performance fee: 25% annually (not per month)
*Or you will have FREE signals next month.
Happy trading!
Auto FX
21716
Rapid Pips Stats | Rent a Signal
Drawdown is about 9,000 dollars if you will trade all the pairs and max simultanious open trades is about 180.
So ... I am not recommending to trade all the pairs.
Select 1 pair only.
As I see - the vendor is trading 4 pairs.
It is EURUSD only:
It is GBPUSD only:
I am not recommending to trade USDJPY - it is losing pair for this signal - you van see it by yourself:
And the best pair is USDCHF for this signal:
Deposit size?
I think - 10,000 or more.
because of many simultanious open trades with 0.08 lot size as a max ...
For more information - ask this vendor drectly on some thread. But I am not sure that he is having the thread here.
Some members asked y by email to describe about some signals.
1156.
http://www.rentasignal.com/signal/stats/1156
This vendor is having the threads somewhere on this section so it is better to ask him directly about deposit size.
I think it should be 10,000 dollars deposit as a minimum.
This signal is profitable but drawdown is about 5,000 dollars so ...
and max open trades is 136 by 0.01 lot size.
It means: more then 1 lot size totally summarized as a maximum.
10,000 as a minimum.
may be more (depends on the leverage).
This vendor is using some special technique which he used for the long time and he is having his clients everywhere who like this trading style.
It is what I know.
For more information - ask him directly on his thread.