Forex Market Barometer - page 5
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Gbpjpy
The trendline continues to hold, but the angle is getting steeper... The big picture market barometer is waaay over-extended. A new candle on the upside of the 60ma should be a good place to go long and ride a longer term consolidation...
Now we just have to wait...
http://www.4xlounge.com/charts2/baro.html
I hope some of you caught the trendline breakout on GBPJPY last night..?
Man, it really took off once it got on the other side of the trendline, lol...
Trade Idea for next week
Hello all,
For those of you following our free barometers, it looks like the EUR is getting close to a reversal:
Big Picture Barometer
The Most of the EUR pairs are already outside the bollinger bands on 1 charts. The best setup right now is the EURJPY. Our long term barometer (not included with our free webcharts, to avoid confusion) is already over-extended nicely - see image below. Look for a bounce to upside on Sunday night (as long as the market doesn't gap up over the weekend). If we get really lucky, the market will gap down (against the EUR) this weekend. This will provide an excellent entry for a EURJPY long.
The EURJPY Trade Idea
Hello all,
I'm not sure how "timely" a forum post will be as a trade alert, but I will follow-up all this week as the EUR continues to over-extend. This will provide a "trade-by-trade" example of how to use our Market Barometers and hopefully answer any remaining questions along the way. As long as the EUR doesn't bounce(consolidate) early, we should end up with a few nice trades. Now we wait...
EURJPY Barometer Trade Setup (Update)
Hello all,
The market is live now and here is the EURJPY update: no trade yet, but very close
You can see from the image below, that the EUR has double bottomed on the Big Picture. This is an excellent indication that it will move higher (at least in the short term). If the EUR paints a line segment above the recent swing high pull back (the peak inbetween the double bottom), then we know it will consolidate longer term.
Even more confirmation is provide by our Long Term Barometer. The EUR is retracing off the bottom and JPY is retracing from the top after testing 85.
To see exactly what happened during the JPY and EUR moves, we can zoom in on the Med Term Barometer. The Med Term Barometer provides very strong confirmation with a double top (JPY) and double bottom (EUR). All of our Barometer agree. Now we need price confirmation before entering the trade.
Price Confirmation: open up a price chart (with candles, price lines usually don't work) and find your support/resistance trendlines. In this case, it will be resistance because we want to go long. We want resistance to break before entering the trade. Depending on your risk level or style of trading, you can look for a long term trendline or a short term trendline. Long term trendlines usually work best and result in larger pips, but short term trendlines usually provide trades with much tighter stops. I will show both examples for this trade:
Note: support/resistance and trendlines can be subjectable. Different traders use different trendlines for different reasons. These are examples of trendlines that I would use. Some trades may (and probably will) disagree, but that's what makes this market so dynamic.
LONG TERM TRENDLINE: The chart below has a line drawn to identify the longer term trendline for the EURJPY. The chart is a 1 hour chart. Basically, wait for a break above the trendline (I like to see a 15min candle form above that price level) and set our stop below the recent swing low @ 121.10ish.
Click here to view Long Term Trendline/I can only add 4 images to this post
SHORT TERM TRENDLINE: below is an example of the short term trendline for this trade. The chart is 5min. Same idea as the long term entry; wait for a break above and then set your stop just below the swing low @ 121.10ish. Personally, I prefer to use the short term trendline to enter my trades. I like smaller stops. If you have any questions, please post them here and I will be happy to respond.
NOTE: if the market prints a lower low before breaking above your trendline, you must place your stop below the lowest swing low and/or the most recent swing low.
It looks like the short term entry for this trade will be around 121.60ish. I usually wait for a 5 minute candle to close above my trendline before entering...
EURJPY Trade (Alert sent)
Hello all,
We just sent out a buystop order for the EURJPY trade (information included in the previous post). As of this posting, it hasn't reached the price, but our trade alert is as follows:
Buystop: EURJPY @ 121.15 (bid, so add your spread)
Protective stop = 120.60 (move to break even after +30 pips)
Target = 123.50 (but we may close early to protect profits)
Hello all,
We just sent out a buystop order for the EURJPY trade (information included in the previous post). As of this posting, it hasn't reached the price, but our trade alert is as follows:
Buystop: EURJPY @ 121.15 (bid, so add your spread)
Protective stop = 120.60 (move to break even after +30 pips)
Target = 123.50 (but we may close early to protect profits)We never hit that price, so we cancelled the buystop order and enter the trade live with the follow information:
Buy EURJPY @ 120.70, Stop = 119.90, Target = 121.50
We have moved our EURJPY stop to break-even. We may also take profits early. I will update this thread if needed...
The net result was a Break Even trade, but hopefully these step-by-step updates helped to explain how to use our Barometers. If you have any questions please post them here and I will be happy to answer them...
USD Rally Setting Up
Hello all,
Those that are following the Big Picture Barometer, the USD is about to make a decent push. Watch the long term trend lines on the all USD pairs. As soon as you have a 1 hr candle on the other side of the trend line, the moves will start.
I usually wait for 1 pair to confirm the move, then look for other pairs that lag behind to catch a trade. Example: if the EURUSD breaks support, I might jump on the GBPUSD short or the AUDUSD long. I will usually place my stops behind the most recent 1hr swing high/low. These Big Picture trades usually take 1 to 3 days, so give your trade a chance to move. Use stand Fibo retracement levels as targets. I'll try to remember to post when the USD starts to move, but I'm usually too busy catching my own trades, lol...