FreedomRocks IntraDay Method - page 2
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
Ain't That Ironic!
Learn MQL4, write an EA for your strategy, test it on 3 year history. If it makes profit, share it. Otherwise its a waste of forum's space and a waste of our time.
Who the hey are you to talk about wasting the forum's space and wasting our time?
But what really got me was the irony of your response when contrasted with your tag-line about offering to write EA's.
It looks to me like the Pipskateer is thinking for himself and sharing with the community. Whether his idea works out, or not, is of secondary importance - as we all know that it's a lot easier to lose money than to make money.
If Pipskateer had placed this in the Commerical Section, your response would have been completely appropriate. But he didn't - and yours wasn't.
Good luck with your idea, Pipskateer.
no backtest possible
Just one thing for people taking about backtesting.
You cannot bactest a multiple currency EA or only 1 currency at a time.
that is what makes all the hedging strategies so difficult to evaluate.
Just one thing for people taking about backtesting.
You cannot bactest a multiple currency EA or only 1 currency at a time.
that is what makes all the hedging strategies so difficult to evaluate.Yes, I totally agree with you...this is a limitation of MT4, but it could be worked around by doing each pair individually and then combining the results in MS Excel or Open Office. It would definitely be less time consuming than manual backtesting.
My biggest concern is to do forward demo testing though with some backtesting for correlation's sake.
Who the hey are you to talk about wasting the forum's space and wasting our time?
But what really got me was the irony of your response when contrasted with your tag-line about offering to write EA's.
It looks to me like the Pipskateer is thinking for himself and sharing with the community. Whether his idea works out, or not, is of secondary importance - as we all know that it's a lot easier to lose money than to make money.
If Pipskateer had placed this in the Commerical Section, your response would have been completely appropriate. But he didn't - and yours wasn't.
Good luck with your idea, Pipskateer.Thanks Brent! Yeah, when I saw his sig tag I was completely dumbfounded... This is just a raw idea that can be fairly easily tested....if it works, great! If not, we'll go on with life, right?
For last night's trade, the USD/JPY and USD/CHF tanked out at -40 pips each. The GBP/USD was a winner at 60 pips, but the EUR/USD just didn't have the gas. It stalled out and I moved the SL up to -10 pips. The SL was hit, so I'm net -20 pips for this one.
I have ideas for helping to reduce the losses and help the winners win bigger, but we'll save them for later. I wanna get some sort of longer-term baseline established with forward demo testing before we start injecting any more discretion than I've already used.
Mathematically speaking Arctic4x is right in his assesment. It is essentially the same as simply taking one position and holding for either a 60 pip profit or a 40 pip loss. Here is why: you are assuming that the correlation of the pairs is equally opposed over time, with half +60 and half -40 trades leading to a long run net profit expectancy of +20 for each set of trades (or +40 for all four pairs combined). Basically the same thing would be expected from only one pair, it would just take longer to have the same number of trades (1/4 as many, obviously).
Here is the problem with the overall idea... The assumption of the system is that there is an equal chance of a win as there is of a loss, i.e. for every 40 pip loss there will be a 60 pip gain to match it over the long run which would lead to a net 20 pip gain. But what the 5 potential outcomes did not consider is the effect of, lets say for example, a 50 pip move during the trade. That would cause the stop to be triggered for one pair but the target would not be for the other. And what if the 40 pip stop is triggered and then price reverses and the opposite position is then closed at the end of the day for another loss. Actually, assuming perfect correlation for simplicity, the losing trade would always be closed before the winning trade leaving some period of time where there would be a risk that the target price would never be reached.
I hope that makes sense and I think if you test this you will find that over time the system may make a little or lose a little from the trades but will lose money overall after the spread is considered. I am sure the broker will love this system (as would someone in your "upline" getting a cut of your spreads)...that is why it is used in an MLM system. Just think, you may be breaking even on your own trades, but if you have 100 people below you that you signed up and you get some cut of their spread then you will probably make money...for awhile, until the people at the bottom realize they can't make money and the pyramid collapses. I never thought the two biggest areas for potential scam artists, trading system vendors and multi-level marketers, would combine forces, but its a dangerous combination for unsuspecting newbies. I hope everyone here is wise enough to see through the smoke and mirrors. Note: I am not familiar with FreedomRocks or their system, so I am not commenting on them specifically, but red flags went up the moment I heard of such a concept.
Mathematically speaking Arctic4x is right in his assesment. It is essentially the same as simply taking one position and holding for either a 60 pip profit or a 40 pip loss. Here is why: you are assuming that the correlation of the pairs is equally opposed over time, with half +60 and half -40 trades leading to a long run net profit expectancy of +20 for each set of trades (or +40 for all four pairs combined). Basically the same thing would be expected from only one pair, it would just take longer to have the same number of trades (1/4 as many, obviously).
Here is the problem with the overall idea... The assumption of the system is that there is an equal chance of a win as there is of a loss, i.e. for every 40 pip loss there will be a 60 pip gain to match it over the long run which would lead to a net 20 pip gain. But what the 5 potential outcomes did not consider is the effect of, lets say for example, a 50 pip move during the trade. That would cause the stop to be triggered for one pair but the target would not be for the other. And what if the 40 pip stop is triggered and then price reverses and the opposite position is then closed at the end of the day for another loss. Actually, assuming perfect correlation for simplicity, the losing trade would always be closed before the winning trade leaving some period of time where there would be a risk that the target price would never be reached.
I hope that makes sense and I think if you test this you will find that over time the system may make a little or lose a little from the trades but will lose money overall after the spread is considered. I am sure the broker will love this system (as would someone in your "upline" getting a cut of your spreads)...that is why it is used in an MLM system. Just think, you may be breaking even on your own trades, but if you have 100 people below you that you signed up and you get some cut of their spread then you will probably make money...for awhile, until the people at the bottom realize they can't make money and the pyramid collapses. I never thought the two biggest areas for potential scam artists, trading system vendors and multi-level marketers, would combine forces, but its a dangerous combination for unsuspecting newbies. I hope everyone here is wise enough to see through the smoke and mirrors. Note: I am not familiar with FreedomRocks or their system, so I am not commenting on them specifically, but red flags went up the moment I heard of such a concept.I understand exactly what you are saying. However, I don't assume there is an exactly "equal" chance of winning over losing, but I do suspect there may be an edge for us in the numbers that needs to be further explored. I absolutely have considered every point you've mentioned before posting this idea. But please understand there are enough factors involved here to make an off-the-cuff evaluation difficult to say the least. So I don't think blanket statements will work right now..the jury is still out as far as I'm concerned. But I do appreciate your thoughtful comments and consideration on this.
I don't know what the longterm (or historical) situation is with these TP/SL target numbers. So the 60/40 pip spread isn't cast in stone...these are just my starting parameters. Maybe we will find better targets as more demo testing is done. I personally think the targets will require some market adjustment as different phases move in and out during the trading year. Tailoring the targets on a "per pair" basis may help to dilute the fact that its easier to hit the SL than it is to hit the TP, I don't know at this point.
About the FR and MLM... I am not a subscriber of FR, nor do I sell their products. I merely used the name in the thread title because my idea is loosely based on their grid/hedge setups and I thought it may attract a little more attention....so sue me! LOL
Thanks again for your comments WarEagle and thanks for stopping by!
For what it's worth...
Rather than a 60:40 flat system, I might recommend something based on ATR instead. One reason for this is that correlated pairs don't have equal pip movements.
Let's look at Daily USDJPY and USDCHF. Zoom all of the way out and they are obviously negatively correlated. On FXDD data, I will look at a few days here at random:
USDCHF 2007/07/
09 H 1.2192 L 1.2153 39
10 H 1.2193 L 1.2020 173
11 H 1.2067 L 1.1992 75
12 H 1.2067 L 1.2004 63
13 H 1.2054 L 1.1984 70
USDJPY
09 H 123.65 L 123.20 45
10 H 123.47 L 121.72 175
11 H 122.51 L 120.98 153
12 H 122.58 L 121.83 75
13 H 122.61 L 121.91 70
Try this with any two pairs, you'll find that they have similarities, but not enough to bank on.
There is a strategy I've been testing that is guaranteed gains, fully hedged, doesn't require muslim accounts and uses a single currency. Still testing it out. I've looked at a lot of things like this, and even if you have 2.0 * 0.5 when it comes to currency prices, the lotsizes and magnitudes are not identical.
I like this strategy for several reasons; not having to gamble on which way the market is going, not having to monitor it, etc.
Can you keep us posted of your results daily?
Thank you.
Hello Pipskateer
Hello!
just read this thread and this is the fast run-down ea i just modi/created for you'r method please let me know is this what you're looking for tp is 60 sl is 40 just load it to fxdd or anyother broker
0.10 for mini
should open all four currencies at the same time..
..
let me know for any mistakes..
Guyver