Hedge Calculator - page 6
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atonix,
Please accept my apology, sorry if my previous post has been a little bit harsh. I guess there's some misunderstanding. It is like this, on your first post on this thread (post #4)
You have already judged their status without concrete prove. You even said that "the calculator isn't that complicated to duplicate", but you're not sure if the ratio value have been considered on their calculation.
I'm releasing a technique soon that takes these principals and uses them only in profitable conditions and diversely to manage risk effectively. And without the $100+/month rip-off. Oh, and if after reading this you don't believe me, I have the formula FreedomRocks uses to calculate lots.
On post #9. You accused them as "a chop-shop of a system". This thing can't be proven, whos copy from whom can't be known. Maybe they didn't copy from each other.
You've said that "you have the formula Freedomrocks uses to calculate lots". Do you? Can you show that to us? If the results are not the same then this will show that you don't know the formula and you are just blabing your mouth.
Earlier part of this thread, Jimbo61 have shared his formula, and this is your answer on post #17.
After a few days, I sent you my own formula thru PM and you've said the same thing. "yup! the same formula with mine". So, what is real? My formula and Jimbo61's formula are not the same, but you gave the same answer to us. You didn't even shared me your formula, I don't even know if you have one or you just want to have a free lunch, the only thing I got from you is that you said " my strategy is not just x=x,y,z kind...", I don't even know what those letters stands for.
A week has past since you post that you'll share your strategy, you were doing it only on your free time. But during your free time, you are not doing what you suppose to be doing. You're here on this thread.
How would you feel if you started your own thread in good faith with clear conscience, just wanting to share your good experience to fellow traders, then suddenly someone slamed you with bad critics and all sort of accusations.
I'm open with discussion, but please if you have a better idea, try to elaborate even on a simple form and share with us, so we might improve it.
To me, all your post has been a "show off", until you show some prove.
Speaking of prove. I know 3 days of trade doesn't prove anything. But there's a lot of members here keep sending me PMs and asking some prove. I requested from true north on their behalf. You can't just tell a prospective costumers that "yeah! it works" and the buyer will just grab it to the cashier and pay for it. You have to prove it. 3 days of prove is better than none. Ofcourse we're not that dumb to be aware of that past performance does not guarantee future results.
hedging
Well put and well explained Sam1. One can see that you have really put some big effort into this subject. Thank you for your contribution. And also that of Antonix.
We all want to become more knowledgable, don't we? Therefore we all need to learn from those who have the knowledge in their specific field. It is a pitty if people use false excuses for not participating in an excellant forum like this one.
I have been watching this conversation from a distance all along and just had a feeling that Antonix wouldn't come up with the goods in the end. I don't want to give reasons for my statement. I would rather play the ball....
Let see if I was right, but more so, I am hoping he is not loosing face.
hedging
Well put and well explained Sam1. One can see that you have really put some big effort into this subject. Thank you for your contribution. And also that of Antonix.
We all want to become more knowledgable, don't we? Therefore we all need to learn from those who have the knowledge in their specific field. It is a pitty if people use false excuses for not participating in an excellant forum like this one.
I have been watching this conversation from a distance all along and just had a feeling that Antonix wouldn't come up with the goods in the end. I don't want to give reasons for my statement. I would rather play the ball....
Let see if I was right, but more so, I am hoping he is not loosing face.
Could you cite a system that takes advantage of a "discrepancy of price between pairs"? Unfortunately, these markets are fairly efficient (with only 1-3 pip swings in pair triads), so there is no discrepancy between prices. Show me mathematically a spread over 10-15 pips of market inefficiency (discrepancy) between pairs, please
Definition of "discrepancy" according from Webster dictionary is difference, disaggreement. The discrepancy I'm referring to is the difference in price, for example, if eur/usd pair had a strong move upward for 20pips and the usd/chf pair didn't move much down, maybe lets say only 5 pips down. If you long both of that currency pairs, there will be a difference in price, obviuosly you will gain more from eur/usd pairs and loss a few in usd/chf pairs, the gained will offset the loss. That's the discrepancy I'm talking about.
Look at the 3 day chart that True North used for that statement for the pairs they traded. They hit a great, uncorrelated, trend. Not only is that not part of their system (it could easily go the other way), there's no way an Excel spreadsheet calculates any trend.
This is how there system works, just like Freedomrocks. If for a time being that both pairs went out of their correlation course, there will be price discrepancy, just like what I explained above. That's how we take advantage of that move. Straight from the horse mouth, that you admit that you haven't tried True North calc, then how did you know it is not part of their system. I nor True North didn't claimed that the spreadsheet will calculate the trend for us. It will just help us calculate how much lots to allocate to a specific correlated pairs, to get a close hedge as possible.
It could be that you're meaning that the correlation always returns to a set level (rubber band-like) when you say "price discrepancy" (which is something completely different). If this is what you mean, correlations do not have elastic qualities. If an average 5-day correlation is 95%, and it shoots to 50% one day, you cannot state that the difference is shooting back. 95% is purely historical, but assuming it will continue, it will most likely continue right there. Yep. Very much so. $10,000 at 40% interest (which is easily doable under what I trade) over 20 years (a very short retirement goal) is $8.4 million. Most (if not all) of these systems claim to be long term. Fits about right.
Same answer with my first paragraph. The correlation coefficient value of both hedged pairs might be 93% for now, but after a few hours or days, it will breakout like for example 85% correlation value, then it will go back to 90% levels sooner or later, that's the "rubber like" I'm talking about.For as long as Europe economy don't change, Yen overnight interest remained low, carry trades continues and this strategy will work. If you are a experienced trader, you'll know how this 2 pairs behave. I didn't claim that this is for long term, non of the strategy I've known will works long term. Countries economy situations will change, that's the fact, and so does their currency must adapt to it. Japan must keep their currency weak for their export goods by lowering interest rate, carry trades continues and so are we.
Also, if you were able to take advantage of an elastic effect between pair correlation (which, in 4 pages of this thread, you have yet to mention until now), you'd be making a lot of trades. I *know* FreedomRocks makes very few from experience. Seems like you may be trying to do something very different?
If I didn't mention is because nobody asked. I don't have to spoonfeed every details for everyone's trading knowledge level is different. I'm using same FR strategy with a little twist by getting in at right moment, which was taught by True North after I purchased the said calculator. So the answer is yes, "something different".
My intent is not to be judgmental. If I see something that will not work long term or something that's misleading, I'll say something about it. I repeat, 3 days isn't enough to prove anything. Please feel free to show more (such as months, years, etc).
But it came acrossed that way. Again, no long term promises were given, as long as carry trade is alive, so are we. Also no misleading or what so ever, maybe you just didn't read between the lines. I have answered the "3 days prove" issue on my previous post.
I am very open to being completely wrong about the whole thing, but have yet to see any bona fide facts pointing towards that. I don't think my system is particularly better, it's just free and only trades during positive price movements. Think FreedomRocks that's free with much less drawdowns. I've never used True North's (which you said is similar), obviously.
If your strategy is free, how come I don't see it? Do we have to wait for months, years for you to prove it that it will work before you release it? Again, from the horse's mouth itself, you haven't tried True North calc, so theres no point of making conclusions (if you don't want the term judgemental).
I think I'll pull away from this discussion and system on these forums. It makes no sense to argue over something like this, and I'm really not motivated to explain more about the mathematical basis between correlations, price, and low volatility pairs.
Yeah, I think you better pull away since what you are contributing is irrelevant to the topic. You've post a lot of contributions on this thread, I'm just wondering how the readers make a good use to it on their trading. And what mathematical basis? We have already shared our formula, and we haven't see you post yours. My suggestion is, if you have a different strategy other than what have been discussing here, try to start your own thread. Oh! before I forgot, why did you sent me a PM and asked for a free copy of the True North hedge calc if you have a better strategy in mind? You want me to violate the intellectual property law?
Since getting this thread going the eurchf has had a steady drop this week, pulling back to a 60% fib level. I am looking now for an entry point to start a hedge.
Thank you for your points. I have no problem in being flat wrong, as it only helps show the truth better.
I think we've been approaching the problem from completely different angles, which is perfectly fine. My apologies for being a bit harsh earlier. Best of luck to you with your technique. I've been pretty busy recently, and in all honesty, putting my technique out isn't on the top of my lists. For the sake of coming through with what I said, I will be releasing what I personally do. I have no need to *prove* anything, as it works for me, and that's all I need.
As for your comments, EbenB, I'm sorry you feel that way. I didn't post my formula, as it's simply the ratio in USD of the pairs. I didn't try the attached calc (I assumed that it was just that). I'm guessing "the goods" would be what I trade. As noted above, that will be released. It's a shame that many people in these forums have a "give me" mentality.
Give me
It's a shame that many people in these forums have a "give me" mentality.
Hi Antonix,
Thank you for your reply. I appreciate your point of view. You started a very promising thread. You had us all very excited about it. Some people worked very hard to make a contribution on this subject that is new to many of us. And that is the reason why many of us couldn't give.
It is so that many people have a "give me" attitude. But go back to your very first post on this subject. You have promised certain things in that post ("the goods"), but did not deliver. That is what I am talking about. You have committed yourself (may be promised?) to give certain things. You haven't done so.
Maybe my culture is different than yours. But I was taught that if you promise somebody something, you give it, come hell or high water.
Nevertheless, I appreciate what you have done sofar.
Burning Questions.
Here's my questions concering hedge trading correlating pairs:
- Does it still involve discretionary trading to know when to get in and when to get out? Doesn't it involve two particular currencies to go up as a pair to be profitable? ie. EUR/CHF
- Now it was mentionned earlier that world ecomnomies change and so will interest rates. Wouldn't that nullify the usefulness of said calculators or can they be modifed to adapt to other currencies in the future because if a strategy is only going to work for 4-5 years why use it?
- How often does one trade using correlating pairs? This has been a question I have often wondered because I know people who almost day trade with it while other position trade. To anyone who trades forex assistant or true concepts or freedomrocks, how often do you make a trade and how long do you tend to hold on to the trade?
These are just some of my burning questions about correlation pair trading of which I still wonder if it's worth getting into.
Since getting this thread going the eurchf has had a steady drop this week, pulling back to a 60% fib level. I am looking now for an entry point to start a hedge.
Good observation there. eur/chf hit the 4hr chart lower channel confluence with 62 fibo. Best time to enter a hedge position.
I had a good trade this week, even if it was trending do the whole week, I use a reverse hedge which also taught by True North. Though the swap will not be in our favor, but the gain from price discrepancy offset the deducted swap. I'll attach a chart.
Reverse hedge ?
Sam
Can you explain the reverse Hedge
Good observation there. eur/chf hit the 4hr chart lower channel confluence with 62 fibo. Best time to enter a hedge position. I had a good trade this week, even if it was trending do the whole week, I use a reverse hedge which also taught by True North. Though the swap will not be in our favor, but the gain from price discrepancy offset the deducted swap. I'll attach a chart.