Using Basic Statistics to gain an EDGE.
nice spreadsheet the only thing that threw me was the formatting on the cells like 0.0150 is 0.015 or 0.0100 is 0.01. if anyone else wants all the cells to read the format of 0.0000, select the cells you want to change then go to "format > cells > format > type:" and type in 0.0000 in the example box it should show up as 0.0030 or whatever box you have selected.
something i noticed is under the "frequency statistics" "hits" the whole colum shows up as the numbers, as in your diagram, but the input box at the top (normally displays the formulas) shows "=Non-supported formula!" 
it works though so cant complain
Updated Spreadsheet
nice spreadsheet the only thing that threw me was the formatting on the cells like 0.0150 is 0.015 or 0.0100 is 0.01. if anyone else wants all the cells to read the format of 0.0000, select the cells you want to change then go to "format > cells > format > type:" and type in 0.0000 in the example box it should show up as 0.0030 or whatever box you have selected. something i noticed is under the "frequency statistics" "hits" the whole colum shows up as the numbers, as in your diagram, but the input box at the top (normally displays the formulas) shows "=Non-supported formula!"
it works though so cant complainYeah those damn extra zeros are annoying when they are not aligning nicely, anyhow, fixed all that plus added another sheet displaying simmilar data for GBP/USD also...here is the updated spreadsheet...
Laters,
FX Sniper
PS: the FREQUENCY formula is entered as an ARRAY FORMULA, so you can not adjust them one by one, you need to adjust the whole array.
Thanks fxsniper for the data, as always your input is appreciated.
Just for fun I checked the last thirty trading days on my SBFX demo and unfortunately five days a break of the previous high failed to reach 10 pips and likewise four days on the short side.
I like a simple strategy. I realise that the 130 pip stop loss was just a rough figure but with my rough maths that would need a 93% win ratio to break even. Is that about right?
im having problems loading the latest version, but im not using word so that may be it. see how everyone else gets on with it.
for a break even stop would it be calculated 13270pips / 17 lost trades = 780stop = breakeven over all.
Dear, FX Sniper,
This Study is quite interesting and your apporoach of looking at the thing with different view is good. many times things are simple...But we need vision to look at it.
Keep it up...we are along with you and sharing our views on this subject...
Happy Trading
Ramdas
Thanks fxsniper for the data, as always your input is appreciated.
Just for fun I checked the last thirty trading days on my SBFX demo and unfortunately five days a break of the previous high failed to reach 10 pips and likewise four days on the short side.
I like a simple strategy. I realise that the 130 pip stop loss was just a rough figure but with my rough maths that would need a 93% win ratio to break even. Is that about right?Hi 
Your observations underline a very important factor that should be considered when one does these kinds of things - DATA QUALITY !!!
The data I used came from Alpari, although I get slightly differenct results with 2 different other brokers...on some it might reach 9 pips and turn back, on another it might go the 10 etc... This is and has always been my biggest problem concerning using stats for forex.
Pretend we did have a system in the lines of my discriptions, the error margin is very narrow and thus leaves extremely little room for data inconsistancies. Antoher thing to considder in my case at least, is that I use Oanda as broker, their prices also do not match up exactly to Alpari for example which complicates things a little more 
If that was not the case, I would be a damn gazillionare already hehehehe, I tried contacting Oanda some time ago and asking them for some historic data for me to play with in Excel, but they did not want to give it to me 
I think that the best way to go, would be to do all the stat work based on the broker one uses, expecially in extrmeme cases like the one we are discussing where there is very little room for error.
On the other side though, this does not dismiss the value of statistics by no means, my other stats that I am actually applying to my real trading is based on 5min Alapari data where I have calculated a MAE for my trades to adjust my stops, the margin for data inconsistancies is a little larger there and so it seems to be working just peachy !!!
Your esitmate about the accuracy ration is quite close yes I think, remember we worked on a hit rate of 98.7%. If you do want to play a little with this, try changing the bin size increments to say 8 pips each, who knows, we might catch more 8 pips or 9 pips which could increase our error margin for data inconsistancies... just a though. I love playing with this stuff, keeps the mind sharp and objective I always tease myself hehehehehe
Take care,
FX Sniper
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