Neural Networks - page 24

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Predicting the direction and movement of stock index prices is difficult, often leading to excessive trading, transaction costs, and missed opportunities. Often traders need a systematic method to not only spot trading opportunities, but to also provide a consistent approach, thereby minimizing trading errors and costs. While mechanical trading systems exist, they are usually designed for a specific stock, stock index, or other financial asset, and are often highly dependent on preselected inputs and model parameters that are expected to continue providing trading information well after the initial training or back-tested model development period. The following research leads to a detailed trading model that provides a more effective and intelligent way for recognizing trading signals and assisting investors with trading decisions by utilizing a system that adapts both the inputs and the prediction model based on the desired output. To illustrate the adaptive approach, multiple inputs and modeling techniques are utilized, including neural networks, particle swarm optimization, and denoising. Simulations with stock indexes illustrate how traders can generate higher returns using the developed adaptive decision support system model. The benefits of adding adaptive and intelligent decision making to forecasts are also discussed.


 
Building a feedforward computational neural network model (CNN) involves two distinct tasks: determination of the network topology and weight estimation. The specification of a problem adequate network topology is a key issue and the primary focus of this contribution. Up to now, this issue has been either completely neglected in spatial application domains, or tackled by search heuristics (see Fischer and Gopal 1994). With the view of modelling interactions over geographic space, this paper considers this problem as a global optimization problem and proposes a novel approach that embeds backpropagation learning into the evolutionary paradigm of genetic algorithms. This is accomplished by interweaving a genetic search for finding an optimal CNN topology with gradient-based backpropagation learning for determining the network parameters. Thus, the model builder will be relieved of the burden of identifying appropriate CNN-topologies that will allow a problem to be solved with simple, but powerful learning mechanisms, such as backpropagation of gradient descent errors. The approach has been applied to the family of three inputs, single hidden layer, single output feedforward CNN models using interregional telecommunication traffic data for Austria, to illustrate its performance and to evaluate its robustness.
 
Neural Networks (NN) are nonlinear tools from the artificial intelligence branch of computer science that can be utilized in financial analysis and forecasting, espeially for short-term predictions. They offer a useful alternative to traditional methods such as discriminant analysisand regression, especially when exploring nonlinear or unknown patterns in massive, sometimes incomplete, data sets. Powerful NNs do have major limitations. Results are sometimes not robust, but training-specific, and difficult to replicate. Sorting adjacent categories such as bond ratings is often subject to high error rates. Software used to process NNs is available, but bapplications may become time-consumingand costly depending on the size of the data set and the complexity of the NN.
 
Reliability is a well-known issue in today's HPC environments and is expected to become even more challenging in the next generation peta-scale systems. Because current fault tolerance approaches (e.g., checkpoint/restart mechanisms) are considered to be inefficient due to performance and scalability issues, improved fault tolerance approaches such as Proactive Fault Avoidance (PFA) are today under investigation. The PFA approach is based on fault prediction and migration in order to reduce both the impact of failures on applications and the recovery time. In this document, we explore the usage of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) techniques for fault prediction improvement in a PFA context. By initially training the feed-forward network with a supervised back propagation learning algorithm, this network is then fed with historical IPMI sensor data collected from our cluster. Results show a prediction performance improvement over the previous "thresholds trigger" approach.
 

Stock market decision making is a very challenging and difficult task of �financial data prediction. Prediction about stock market with high accuracy movement yield pro�fit for investors of the stocks. Because of the complexity of stock market �financial data, development of efficient models for prediction decision is very difficult and it must be accurate. This study attempted to develop models for prediction of the stock market and to decide whether to buy/hold the stock using data mining and machine learning techniques. The machine learning technique like Naive Bayes, k-Nearest Neighbor(k-NN), Support Vector Machine(SVM), Arti�cial Neural Network(ANN) and Random Forest has been used for developing of prediction model. Technical indicators are calculated from the stock prices based on time-line data and it is used as inputs of the proposed prediction models. Ten years of stock market data has been used for signal prediction of stock. Based on the data set, these models are capable to generate buy/hold signal for stock market as a output. The main goal of this project is to generate output signal(buy/hold) as per users requirement like amount to be invested, time duration for investment, minimum profit, maximum loss using data mining and machine learning techniques.



 

In this work we present an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach to predict stock market indices. In particular, we focus our attention on their trend movement up or down. We provide results of experiments exploiting different Neural Networks architectures, namely the Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), the Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks technique. We show importance of choosing correct input features and their preprocessing for learning algorithm. Finally we test our algorithm on the S&P500 and FOREX EUR/USD historical time series, predicting trend on the basis of data from the past n days, in the case of S&P500, or minutes, in the FOREX framework. We provide a novel approach based on combination of wavelets and CNN which outperforms basic neural networks approaches.


 

The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 wiped out US$37 trillions across global financial markets, this value is equivalent to the combined GDPs of the United States and the European Union in 2014. The defining moment of this crisis was the failure of Lehman Brothers, which precipitated the October 2008 crash and the Asian Correction (March 2009). Had the Federal Reserve seen these crashes coming, they might have bailed out Lehman Brothers, and prevented the crashes altogether. In this paper, we show that some of these market crashes (like the Asian Correction) can be predicted, if we assume that a large number of adaptive traders employing competing trading strategies. As the number of adherents for some strategies grow, others decline in the constantly changing strategy space. When a strategy group grows into a giant component, trader actions become increasingly correlated and this is reflected in the stock price. The fragmentation of this giant component will leads to a market crash. In this paper, we also derived the mean-field market crash forecast equation based on a model of fusions and fissions in the trading strategy space. By fitting the continuous returns of 20 stocks traded in Singapore Exchange to the market crash forecast equation, we obtain crash predictions ranging from end October 2008 to mid-February 2009, with early warning four to six months prior to the crashes.


 
These diagrams explore the use of Sydney Lamb’s relational network notion for linguistics to represent the logical structure of complex collection of attractor landscapes (as in Walter Freeman’s account of neuro-dynamics). Given a sufficiently large system, such as a vertebrate nervous system, one might want to think of the attractor net as itself being a dynamical system, one at a higher order than that of the dynamical systems realized at the neuronal level. Constructions include: variety ('is-a' inheritance), simple movements, counting and place notation, orientation in time and space, language, learning.
 

Effectiveness of the use of neural-net technology for the solving of shell theory problems is shown. Some results of neural-net interpolation and extrapolation for direct and inverse problems are discussed. Exact accuracy of neural-net solving opens wide latitude for shell constructions engineering design and optimization.


 

The Foreign Exchange Market is the biggest and one of the most liquid markets in the world. This market has always been one of the most challenging markets as far as short term prediction is concerned. Due to the chaotic, noisy, and non-stationary nature of the data, the majority of the research has been focused on daily, weekly, or even monthly prediction. The literature review revealed that there is a gap for intra-day market prediction. Identifying this gap, this paper introduces a prediction and decision making model based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Genetic Algorithms. The dataset utilized for this research comprises of 70 weeks of past currency rates of the 3 most traded currency pairs: GBP\USD, EUR\GBP, and EUR\USD. The initial statistical tests confirmed with a significance of more than 95% that the daily FOREX currency rates time series are not randomly distributed. Another important result is that the proposed model achieved 72.5% prediction accuracy. Furthermore, implementing the optimal trading strategy, this model produced 23.3% Annualized Net Return.


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