NZDUSD Technical Analysis 01.12 - 08.12 : Weekly Ranging Bearish
newdigital, 2013.12.02 08:57
2013-12-01 21:45 GMT (or 22:45 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Overseas Trade Index]
- past data is 4.7%
- forecast data is 3.0%
- actual data is 7.5% according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
==========
New Zealand Terms Of Trade Spike 7.5% In Q3
New Zealand's terms of trade surged 7.5 percent in the third quarter compared to the previous three months, Statistics New Zealand said on Monday.
The headline figure was sharply higher than forecasts for an increase of 2.9 percent following the 4.9 percent jump in the second quarter.
The price of exported goods climbed 8.9 percent on quarter, while seasonally adjusted export prices dipped 2.1 percent. Both were strongly affected by prices of dairy products, the bureau noted.
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NZDUSD M5 : 82 pips price movement by NZD - Overseas Trade Index
Shunmas, 2013.12.02 09:15
Forex - NZD/USD climbs as China PMI supports
Investing.com - The New Zealand dollar climbed against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, as the release of upbeat Chinese manufacturing data lent support to export-related currencies.
NZD/USD hit 0.8224 during late Asian trade, the pair's highest since November 26; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8210, rallying 0.95%.The pair was likely to find support at 0.8116, the low of November 27 and a two-month low and resistance at 0.8302, the high of November 13.
A report earlier showed that China’s final HSBC Purchasing Managers Index inched up to 50.8 in November, up from a preliminary reading 50.4 and above expectations for a reading of 50.5.
The data was published one day after a government report showed that China’s manufacturing PMI held steady at an 18-month high of 51.4 in November, compared to forecasts for a decline to 51.1.
China is New Zealand's second biggest export partner.
The kiwi was higher against the Australian dollar with AUD/NZD declining 0.44%, to hit 1.1149.
Also Monday, official data showed that building approvals in Australia declined 1.8% in October, less than the expected 5% drop, after an upwardly revised 16.9% increase the previous month.
A separate report showed that company operating profits in Australia rose 3.9% in the third quarter, beating expectations for a 1% increase, after an uwardly revised 0.4% rise in the three months to June.
Later in the day, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was to speak at an event in Washington, while the Institute of Supply Management is to release its manufacturing PMI.
newdigital, 2013.12.02 16:47
2013-12-02 15:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
- past data is 56.4
- forecast data is 55.2
- actual data is 57.3 according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
==========
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Unexpectedly Jumps In November
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector unexpectedly expanded in November for the sixth consecutive month as the overall economy continued to grow, the Institute of Supply Management reported Monday.
The ISM's purchasing managers index registered 57.3 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage point from October's reading of 56.4 percent. It was the highest reading since November 2011.
Economists forecast a fall to 55.0. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
The ISM's New Orders Index increased in November by 3 percentage points to 63.6 percent, and the Production Index increased by 2 percentage points to 62.8 percent.
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NZDUSD M5 : 17 pips prrice movement by USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
The movement came from strong USD upbeat. On its own, NZD remained strong due to last week's data released (Thursday), which showed that the ANZ business confidence index rose to a nearly 15-year high of 60.5 this month, from 53.2 in October. On Wednesday, official data showed that New Zealand's trade deficit narrowed to NZD168 million in October from NZD216 million in September. Analysts had expected the trade deficit to expand to NZD345 million last month.
So in simple words, the movement in USD did little damage to NZD.
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Ranging breakout is already started on H4 timeframe (see image below). Why ranging? Because price is inside Ichimoku cloud/kumo
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NZDUSD H4 - ranging breakout started on close bar
And this ranging breakout is going to be started on D1 tmeframe soon (it may be tomorrow or day after tomorrow)
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NZDUSD D1: ranging breakout is going to be started soon
newdigital, 2013.12.06 15:06
2013-12-06 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
- past data is 204K
- forecast data is 180K
- actual data is 203K according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
==========
U.S. Employment Increases By More Than Expected In November
In another upbeat sign for the U.S. labor market, the Labor Department released a report on Friday showing stronger than expected job growth in the month of November.
The report showed that non-farm payroll employment rose by 203,000 jobs in November following a revised increase of 200,000 jobs in October.
Economists had been expecting employment to increase by about 180,000 jobs compared to the addition of 204,000 jobs originally reported for the previous monthMetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
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NZDUSD M5 : 37 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
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Price is inside Ichimoku cloud for D1 timeframe below Sinkou Span A line/border for ranging bearish market condition trying to cross the other border of the cloud/kumo for primary bearish. By the way. Friday's D1 bar was open below the clod but the price was stopped by 0.8109 support level.
The price was inside Ichimoku cloud/kumo for few weeks on W1 timeframe which is indicating ranging bearish condition for this pair. But price is trying to break 0.8124 support level for primary bearish. Besides, Chinkou Span line is very close to historical price and ready to break it from above to below.
It is bullish ranging but Chinkou Span is crossing the price on open bar. If this Chinkou Span will cross historical price on cross bar so we may have good correction within primary bullish (good to open sell trades for example). But please note - one bar in MN timeframe = one month
If the price will cross 0.8124 support level (if new weekly bar will be open below this level on Monday) so we may see some breakdown for this pair.
If the price will stay withing with Ichimoku cloud so we may see ranging market condition 9which is not good for trading following systems for example).
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on NZDUSD price movement for this coming week)
2013-12-01 21:45 GMT (or 22:45 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Overseas Trade Index]
2013-12-02 01:45 GMT (or 02:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI]
2013-12-03 00:00 GMT (or 01:00 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Commodity Prices]
2013-12-03 01:00 GMT (or 02:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Non-Manufacturing PMI]
2013-12-06 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on NZDUSD price movementSUMMARY : ranging
TREND : bearish
Intraday Chart