AUDUSD Technical Analysis 27.10 - 03.11 : Ranging Bullish
It is interesting to compare the price movement on this post with Interpolation indicator's line from the previous post (just check Ranko on the previous inage and on this image, and look at Interpolation indicator's line from the previous image) - seems it was right/correct forecasting which was done by this indicator (download here from MT5 CodeBase)
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AUDUSD H4 forecasting
well ... just next chart as a result of forecasting made by this indicator from MT5 CodeBase - compare this image with the previous one :
newdigital, 2013.10.29 07:08
2013-10-28 22:30 GMT (or 23:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA's Governor Speech]
- past data is n/a
- forecast data is n/a
- actual data is n/a - latest press release
==========
Stevens Says Aussie Likely to Be Materially Lower in Future
Australia’s central bank Governor Glenn Stevens said the local currency’s level isn’t supported by costs and productivity in the economy and the nation’s terms of trade are more likely to fall than rise. The Aussie dropped.
“The foreign exchange market is perhaps another area in
which investors should take care,” Stevens said today in the
text of a speech in Sydney. “It seems quite likely that at some
point in the future the Australian dollar will be materially
lower than it is today.”
“It would be a mistake to relax for very long in the face of this delay. Surely the ‘taper’ will come,” he told a Citigroup Inc. conference. “For some countries, including Australia, the beginning of a return to something resembling more normal conditions, in at least one major advanced country, would lessen some of the difficulties we face in our own policy choices.”
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58 pips price movement by AUD - RBA's Governor Speech
As we are mainly talking about D1 timeframe on this thread (for AUDUSD) so it is still bullish : price is above kumo (Ichimoku cloud)
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audusd d1 - still bullish with correction as the secondary trend
But we can expect breakdown in the end of this week (or in the beginning of the next week) -
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breakdown may be exyected in the end of this week
newdigital, 2013.10.31 05:45
2013-10-30 18:00 GMT (or 19:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Interest Rate]
- past data is 0.25%
- forecast data is 0.25%
- actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
==========
2013-10-30 18:00 GMT (or 19:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - FOMC Statement]
- past data is n/a
- forecast data is n/a
- actual data is n/a according to the latest press release
==========
US Federal Reserve keeps stimulus intact
The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday has decided to continue with its monthly bond buying program of USD 85 billion.
Earlier in September meeting, Fed surprised the market participant by maintaining bond buying at monthly USD 85 billion against expectation of tapering by USD 10-15 billion.
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59 pips price moveent on USD - FOMC Statement
newdigital, 2013.10.31 05:55
2013-10-31 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Building Approvals]
- past data is -1.6%
- forecast data is 2.7%
- actual data is 14.4% according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
==========
Australia Building Approvals Surge 14.4% In September
The total number of building approvals in Australia jumped a seasonally adjusted 14.4 percent in September compared to the previous month, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday, standing at 16,318.
That shattered forecasts for a gain of 2.8 percent following the upwardly revised 1.6 percent decline in August (originally -4.7 percent).
On a yearly basis, approvals spiked 18.6 percent - also blowing past forecasts for a gain of 1.2 percent following the upwardly revised11.1 percent jump in the previous month (originally 7.7 percent).
The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses added 1.5 percent in September following a fall of 1.2 percent in August. Private sector dwellings excluding houses surged 31.8 percent.
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32 pips price movement by AUD - Building Approvals
newdigital, 2013.11.01 07:11
2013-11-01 00:56 GMT (or 01:56 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]
- past data is 51.1
- forecast data is 51.2
- actual data is 51.4 according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
==========
China Manufacturing PMI 51.4 In October
China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index came in with a score of 51.4 in October, the government said on Friday.
That topped expectations for a reading of 51.2 and marked an increase from the 51.1 score in September.
Also, the HSBC manufacturing PMI posted a score of 50.9 for October - beating expectations for 50.7 and up from 50.2 in the previous month.
In both cases, a score above 50 signals expansion in a sector and below represents contraction.
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AUDUSD M5 : 20 pips price movement by CNY - Manufacturing PMI
newdigital, 2013.11.01 16:07
2013-11-01 14:00 GMT (or 15:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
- past data is 56.2
- forecast data is 55.0
- actual data is 56.4 according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
==========
U.S. Manufacturing Index Unexpectedly Inches Higher In October
Activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector unexpectedly expanded at a slightly faster rate in the month of October, according to a report released by the Institute for Supply Management on Friday.
The ISM said its purchasing managers index inched up to 56.4 in October from 56.2 in September, with a reading above 50 indicating an increase in manufacturing activity.
The modest increase came as a surprise to economists, who had expected the index of manufacturing activity to dip to 55.0.
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AUDUSD M5 : 32 pips price movement by USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI
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This is the bullish market condition for now on AUDUSD D1 timeframe : price is on 0.9581, and the border between bullish and bearish market condition (border of Ichimoku cloud) is on 0.9293 support level (Sinkou Span A line of Ichimoku indicator). So, I am expecting for bullish to be continuing for this week as well.
Secondary trend: this is correction going on right now (and whole the last week): if the price will break 0.9571 support level so the correction will be continuing (good to open sell trade); if the price will break 0.9633 resistance and especially 0.9757 - the strong uptrend may be extected as a breakout for example (good to open buy trade).
But if we look at H4 timeframe - the price is inside Ichimoku cloud - so I am expecting the ranging market condition as the secondary trend for this week.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on AUDUSD price movement for this coming week)
2013-10-28 22:30 GMT (or 23:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA's Governor Speech]
2013-10-30 18:00 GMT (or 19:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Interest Rate]
2013-10-31 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Building Approvals]
2013-11-01 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - PPI]
2013-11-01 01:00 GMT (or 02:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HBC Manufacturing PMI]
2013-11-01 05:30 GMT (or 6:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Commodity Prices]
Please note : some US high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on AUDUSD price movement
SUMMARY : ranging
TREND : bullish
Intraday Chart