Its all noise?

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Some peoples say"there's nothing like trend,its all noise".

After reading this article:https://www.mql5.com/en/articles/1530,,once again i can assume that the market is random.


BTW,i've already developed a 100% mechanical renko strategy & did a moderate forward test:

#No.of trades=400

#Accuracy=70%(after first 100 trades the accuracy was 70% too)

#R/R=variable (from 1:1 to 1:3)

#No. of winning trades reaching,

1:1 target=150

1:2 target=30

1:3 target=30

#stop loss=fixed value

#Losing streak=5(longest)


I guess this strategy have little/no bias towards any specific market condition(like trending or sideways),it represents the same statistics after every 100 trades...

Do u think market can alter the above statistics of the strategy in future?(if possible,Kindly explain your point in short)

(the author is russian speaking & not active recently,so i have to ask here on this forum)

Thanks for your time!

 
tm9:

Some peoples say"there's nothing like trend,its all noise".

After reading this article:https://www.mql5.com/en/articles/1530,,once again i can assume that the market is random.


BTW,i've already developed a 100% mechanical renko strategy & did a moderate forward test:

#No.of trades=400

#Accuracy=70%(after first 100 trades the accuracy was 70% too)

#R/R=variable (from 1:1 to 1:3)

#No. of winning trades reaching,

1:1 target=150

1:2 target=30

1:3 target=30

#stop loss=fixed value

#Losing streak=5(longest)


I guess this strategy have little/no bias towards any specific market condition(like trending or sideways),it represents the same statistics after every 100 trades...

Do u think market can alter the above statistics of the strategy in future?(if possible,Kindly explain your point in short)

(the author is russian speaking & not active recently,so i have to ask here on this forum)

Thanks for your time!

It depends on timeframe.The higher timeframe you trade the less noise you will have and the more the fundamentals will affect you vs the speculators.So in low timeframes speculators are stronger than fundamentals and on higher timeframe the opposite.Also it depends on the pair's liquidity and volatility, are there any pending or incoming news or events?

I personalyl like to trade on low timeftames i have an EA on 5-15m setups and i martingale out the odds.I have a 57% win rate strategy then i`m ok for a while.But yours seems pretty holy to me.70% win rate after 400 trades is very impressive.Perhaps if you wish you could put your EA on this site and we could test it too.

 
Proximus:


I personalyl like to trade on low timeftames i have an EA on 5-15m setups and i martingale out the odds.I have a 57% win rate strategy then i`m ok for a while.But yours seems pretty holy to me.70% win rate after 400 trades is very impressive.Perhaps if you wish you could put your EA on this site and we could test it too.


The Win rate on it's own means nothing . . .

Which would you rather have:

Risk:Reward of 2:1 and WR of 70% or

Risk:Reward of 1:2 and WR of 60%

 
Proximus:

It depends on timeframe.The higher timeframe you trade the less noise you will have and the more the fundamentals will affect you vs the speculators.So in low timeframes speculators are stronger than fundamentals and on higher timeframe the opposite.Also it depends on the pair's liquidity and volatility, are there any pending or incoming news or events?

I personalyl like to trade on low timeftames i have an EA on 5-15m setups and i martingale out the odds.I have a 57% win rate strategy then i`m ok for a while.But yours seems pretty holy to me.70% win rate after 400 trades is very impressive.Perhaps if you wish you could put your EA on this site and we could test it too.



The strategy is not dependent on time frames, generates signals 24/5 (no sleep allowed.lol)


The most interesting part is,i didn't expect such performance that's why i wanted to forward test manually in realtime-market to see for myself..it has already won me 2 contests on ECN!

So it is yet to be turned into a ROBOT...

(Thanks to MQL4.com for some great insightful articles written by genius mathematicians & strategists that helped me along the way)

 
RaptorUK: The Win rate on it's own means nothing . . .
Exactly.
      double   riskAve     = pipsLost / nLost,  // \ Or Average $loss
               rewardAve   = pipsWon  / nWon,   // / or Average $win
               accuracy    = nWon / Double(nTickets),
            // expectancy  = (1+average win/average loss)*(system accuracy) -1
            // http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/money-management-system.html
               expectancy  = (1. + rewardAve / riskAve) * accuracy - 1;
 
RaptorUK:

The Win rate on it's own means nothing . . .

Which would you rather have:

Risk:Reward of 2:1 and WR of 70% or

Risk:Reward of 1:2 and WR of 60%


A profit is a profit raptor as long as its sustained everything else is noise. Thats how i see things.
 
tm9:

Some peoples say"there's nothing like trend,its all noise".

After reading this article:https://www.mql5.com/en/articles/1530,,once again i can assume that the market is random.


BTW,i've already developed a 100% mechanical renko strategy & did a moderate forward test:

#No.of trades=400

#Accuracy=70%(after first 100 trades the accuracy was 70% too)

#R/R=variable (from 1:1 to 1:3)

#No. of winning trades reaching,

1:1 target=150

1:2 target=30

1:3 target=30

#stop loss=fixed value

#Losing streak=5(longest)


I guess this strategy have little/no bias towards any specific market condition(like trending or sideways),it represents the same statistics after every 100 trades...

Do u think market can alter the above statistics of the strategy in future?(if possible,Kindly explain your point in short)

(the author is russian speaking & not active recently,so i have to ask here on this forum)

Thanks for your time!

There is never 100% and sooner or later you will realise that.
 
tonny:

A profit is a profit raptor as long as its sustained everything else is noise. Thats how i see things.
Which will give you a profit ? the first or second ? or maybe both ?
 
tonny: A profit is a profit raptor as long as its sustained everything else is noise. Thats how i see things.
Fine. Let me sell you a EA that has a 90% win ratio. It does have a 100:1 risk vs. reward, but you don't care about that.
 
tonny:
There is never 100% and sooner or later you will realise that.

I think the 100% bit was describing the fact that the system is mechanical ( "100% mechanical" ) and not automated . . . I don't think it was the WR, why ? this "Accuracy=70%"
 
WHRoeder:
Fine. Let me sell you a EA that has a 90% win ratio. It does have a 100:1 risk vs. reward, but you don't care about that.


The risk can be controlled via lot size. What matters most is consistency i.e. it has been winning for five straight years wont you use it provided you set a safe lot size?
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