Does anyone make any money out of auto trading?? - page 2
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@cool_dude: Lets just say the answer is Yes and move-on to the hard part.
@anyone:[who wants to respond]: What should a good Expert-Advisor Be? Just Numbers to the below would be nice.
-Relative Drawdown%=
-Annual Return%=
-Monthly Return%=
-Trades Per Month=
Please provide the highest/lowest numbers you'll be happy-trading your own money with. Not some number you read somewhere or believe is universally acceptable. If you guys want to expand the list, please provide recommendations.
It sounds like you are simply using a very large risk and small reward which will inherently give a large win rate . . . but if the WR is simply a function of the R:R then it will also lose just the same way a coin toss does, it will just give you more winning trades while you wait for the infrequent but very large losing trade to come along.
Does your strategy lie on this curve ?
Hi,
No it does not. I will loose about 1000 USD once my assumption breaks but I don't think that it will happen until I am at least at break even (this assumption is not based on a coin toss but on fundamentals, I wouldn't trust a coin...). Meanwhile it produces 8-10 usd/day. The equity curve would look like a random walk with a steady ~ 10 usd slope but it can vary 100 usd every day. The worst case scenario is a 1k (probably around 1.1 because of slippage) minus from the last balance (the previously realized profit). I have started running this on a 1k account, yes it is very-very-very extremely over-leveraged but it is just enough to cover the worst case scenario. Maybe I will increase the portfolio size a bit once the market is optimal for a new entry.. The thing is that there is still risk and I don't want to lose much money. If the current situation holds for a couple of months which I think it will, then my worst case scenario will be breakeven, and rising 8-10 usd/day.
Btw, in my comment about the exponential strategy I wasn't very precise. The probability of losing in a turn is equal to the probability of having 11 or mor SL hits in a row. The probablity of this is 1/2048+1/4096+1/9192+ ... = 1/1024, so on average the strategy will gain 1024 usd, then collect a nice 4095 minus..
@cool_dude: Lets just say the answer is Yes and move-on to the hard part.
@anyone:[who wants to respond]: What should a good Expert-Advisor Be? Just Numbers to the below would be nice.
-Relative Drawdown%=
-Annual Return%=
-Monthly Return%=
-Trades Per Month=
Please provide the highest/lowest numbers you'll be happy-trading your own money with. Not some number you read somewhere or believe is universally acceptable. If you guys want to expand the list, please provide recommendations.
I think it does not make much sense to view DD and return separately. What you want is the (Return per 1-3 months)/(max relative dd in equity) ratio and the return/maximum and return/average exposure during the period because that is what really matters. You can scale up/down a small yield small dd strategy as long as the exposure it uses is small.
I would require a 3 month return/dd ratio of around 1 with at least 2-3 % per month gain with margin not running below 1-2000%. I would be very-very happy with that. But I am just a newbie.
How do you gain fundamentals within a strategy-tester?
I did not. I made an assumption and I have backtested (with the fundamental assumption hardcoded in the strategy) and it worked. You make the assumption on the model level. I assume something about the market (and the economy) and as long as it stays valid I know that what I am doing will work. I will shut down the minute I sense change (hopefully, that way I can avoid losing the mentioned 1k)..
Btw you can test strategies that use fundamental things too, you just need a good database of macro data, news, announcements... Is sounds like a great deal of work. So it is quite out of the scope for us... Banks probably do that, they have the capacity.
@mpeter: with at least 2% per month, thanks for answering one of my questions. This forum is about auto-mated trading. For the most part that translate to Codes. We generally leave the Myths and Subjectiveness to other trading sites. Anyone can bust into a site with super-duper trading Matrix, Statistics and Opinions. Unless you want to show the Codes and Strategy-Tester's results backing you claims ... Everything else is just Blah....Blah....Blah.
I'm attempting to bring this topic on track, because its about auto-mated trading. But within the context of Coding and Testing.
I never recommend to use other's indicators. Instead I developed my own for my own use. The advantage is that I know how it works and which indications are trade-able. Here is one snapshot of latest SILVER chart for you. Of course, it makes money for me.
looks great :)
@mpeter: with at least 2% per month, thanks for answering one of my questions. This forum is about auto-mated trading. For the most part that translate to Codes. We generally leave the Myths and Subjectiveness to other trading sites. Anyone can bust into a site with super-duper trading Matrix, Statistics and Opinions. Unless you want to show the Codes and Strategy-Tester's results backing you claims ... Everything else is just Blah....Blah....Blah.
I'm attempting to bring this topic on track, because its about auto-mated trading. But within the context of Coding and Testing.
No, i have actually answered all your questions if you read my reply, not only 1 of them. DD and return are useless measures, dd/return and return/exposure is what maters. The number of trades does not need to be high if I see the internals of the strategy. If i don't, then it depends on the typical tp/sl ratio and the deviation of traded lot sizes or something like that...
No one will give the ingredients of his/her strategy, i wont give mine either and I am not here to sell anything. he asked whether it is possible to create a profitable EA and I told him, that it is, but make his own..
What you call blahblah, myth and subjectiveness is much more valuable than coding and testing. He told us that he has created many EAs, so he is probably well aware of DD, return, coding, the model-test-validate principle and such. Coding and testing does not make any successful EA. I know by myself and I was happy to give a fellow wannabe ea developer (just like me) some advice that he should not just blindly look at buying/coding and testing but instead look for special market conditions and try to trade that while keeping the risk low. Sometimes not numbers are what help but impulses and ideas. Then you can formulate it, code it and backtest it... But ok, I won't post anything else.