Suggestions for EA (Loosing to Profit) - page 14

 
c0d3:
Yesterday, I turned off the Demo, and started with the LIVE testing with 0.01 lots and 1:1 RR Ratio

Yes. Looks like you are making some progress since the beginning.

I strongly recommend you to take entry/exit condition notes. MA signals are not really my cup of tea, but I still believe if you can observe how EVERY MA signals is interacting with different market conditions, you bound to find something that needs to be improved, perhaps out of necessity

Going Live is good, and every opportunity to learn out of it, counts. Its actually you trading, although the robot is.

 
  • Ok, it seems that there are fewer trades in the live account.
  • Here is what i THINK:
  • Things like backtesting and demo is only good for one thing: verifying your trading logic, anything other than that is garbage data
  • So if you have an EA that you think is going to go live, break your bank set your lots to 0.01 and test on a live account, otherwise any data you collect outside of what the system does for entry/exit is potentially garbage, primarily if the system is profitable or not.
  • From what I have learned, a difference in a few pips there and there, and a difference in a few orders there and there, in the long run can make or break your system
  • So the only real test of your system is the live account testing, forget forward-demo testing, and forget backtesting for profits or analytics.
  • Priceless lesson from this thread: forward-demo test and backtest evaluation is pure garbage, unless you are concerned with system entry/exit
  • I will never again test any of my system on a demo account
 
So the questions arises: why are there more trades in a demo account vs. live account?
 
c0d3:
So the questions arises: why are there more trades in a demo account vs. live account?

How's the live trades so far?

 
c0d3:
  • Ok, it seems that there are fewer trades in the live account.
  • Here is what i THINK:
  • Things like backtesting and demo is only good for one thing: verifying your trading logic, anything other than that is garbage data
  • So if you have an EA that you think is going to go live, break your bank set your lots to 0.01 and test on a live account, otherwise any data you collect outside of what the system does for entry/exit is potentially garbage, primarily if the system is profitable or not.
  • From what I have learned, a difference in a few pips there and there, and a difference in a few orders there and there, in the long run can make or break your system
  • So the only real test of your system is the live account testing, forget forward-demo testing, and forget backtesting for profits or analytics.
  • Priceless lesson from this thread: forward-demo test and backtest evaluation is pure garbage, unless you are concerned with system entry/exit
  • I will never again test any of my system on a demo account

Ok, it seems that there are fewer trades in the live account. <---- in my case so far, My EA's seam to be making more trades then when I tested using Stratagy Tester and less then the demo acct.

Things like backtesting and demo is only good for one thing: verifying your trading logic, anything other than that is garbage data <---- I agree, I use ST to get a range for settings, I use Visual Mode to make sure my logic is correct and trades are opening\closing when they are supposed to. I use a demo account to refine settings in an almost real market simulation.

So you have an EA that you think is going to go live, break your bank set your lots to 0.01 and test on a live account, otherwise any data you collect outside of what the system does for entry/exit is potentially garbage, primarily if the system is profitable or not. <---- Yes, if you don't believe this, run a demo and live account at the same time and see the difference, it will open your eye's!

From what I have learned, a difference in a few pips there and there, and a difference in a few orders there and there, in the long run can make or break your system <---- depends on the system, but to date I have not had any positive slippage only negative.

So the only real test of your system is the live account testing, forget forward-demo testing, and forget backtesting for profits or analytics. <--- yes but, you should be able to get some basic idea if your system is viable or not. Even though a robot is trading and the "emotions" are taken out, a human can still turn it off!!! You should get confidence not to do this by using every means to test.

Priceless lesson from this thread: forward-demo test and backtest evaluation is pure garbage, unless you are concerned with system entry/exit <---- I agree but don't skip these steps.

I will never again test any of my system on a demo account <---- I still think it's worth a week just to double check everything. Good for testing e-mail allerts, and error messages in the journal.

 
c0d3:
So the questions arises: why are there more trades in a demo account vs. live account?

Post your trades for this week if you have them.
 
danjp:

Post your trades for this week if you have them.


Here are mine this week +220. Last week was +350. My goal is between 900 - 1100 per month I am going to add another pair. I did alot of testing this week, I have about 5 other pairs I feel confident about trying.

Account: XXXXName: Daniel XXXXXCurrency: USD2011 November 4, 19:59
Closed Transactions:
TicketOpen TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PClose TimePriceCommissionTaxesSwapProfit
650059602011.11.02 13:23balanceAuto Account Sync with FXCM0.02
650031712011.11.02 10:59buy0.01euraud1.330351.325841.331342011.11.02 11:011.331320.000.000.001.00
650031692011.11.02 09:59buy0.01euraud1.329831.325841.331342011.11.02 11:011.331320.000.000.001.54
650031672011.11.02 09:46buy0.01euraud1.329291.325841.331342011.11.02 11:011.331320.000.000.002.10
650031662011.11.02 09:45buy0.01euraud1.328811.325841.331342011.11.02 11:011.331320.000.000.002.59
650031652011.11.02 09:45buy0.01euraud1.328731.326231.331732011.11.02 11:051.331560.000.000.002.92
649843512011.11.01 07:56buy0.01nzdusd0.803090.799590.803592011.11.01 08:070.799490.000.000.00-3.60
649843502011.11.01 07:37buy0.01nzdusd0.802670.799590.803592011.11.01 08:070.799490.000.000.00-3.18
649843492011.11.01 07:34buy0.01nzdusd0.802060.799590.803592011.11.01 08:070.799490.000.000.00-2.57
649843472011.11.01 07:30buy0.01nzdusd0.801540.799590.803592011.11.01 08:070.799530.000.000.00-2.01
649750632011.10.31 15:48sell0.01euraud1.315151.319991.314492011.10.31 18:481.314440.000.000.000.75
649750622011.10.31 15:48sell0.01euraud1.315671.319991.314492011.10.31 18:481.314440.000.000.001.30
649750612011.10.31 15:30sell0.01euraud1.316501.319991.314492011.10.31 18:481.314440.000.000.002.18
649750602011.10.31 15:28sell0.01euraud1.316911.319991.314492011.10.31 18:481.314440.000.000.002.62
649750592011.10.31 15:25sell0.01euraud1.317331.319991.314492011.10.31 18:481.314440.000.000.003.06
649677272011.10.31 06:55buy0.01eurusd1.402331.396841.402342011.10.31 06:551.402100.000.000.00-0.23
649677252011.10.31 05:50buy0.01eurusd1.401821.396841.402342011.10.31 06:551.402420.000.000.000.60
649675672011.10.31 04:50buy0.01nzdusd0.810770.807110.811112011.10.31 06:070.811130.000.000.000.36
649675642011.10.31 04:50buy0.01nzdusd0.810990.807110.811112011.10.31 06:070.811130.000.000.000.14
649675612011.10.31 04:50buy0.01nzdusd0.810990.807110.811112011.10.31 06:070.811130.000.000.000.14
649675562011.10.31 04:43buy0.01audusd1.054851.049221.054722011.10.31 04:431.054530.000.000.00-0.32
649675602011.10.31 04:41buy0.01nzdusd0.809680.807110.811112011.10.31 06:070.811130.000.000.001.45
649675552011.10.31 04:41buy0.01audusd1.054271.049221.054722011.10.31 06:411.054750.000.000.000.48
649677242011.10.31 04:41buy0.01eurusd1.401361.396841.402342011.10.31 06:551.402420.000.000.001.06
649675542011.10.31 04:39buy0.01audusd1.053671.049221.054722011.10.31 06:411.054750.000.000.001.08
649677232011.10.31 04:38buy0.01eurusd1.400891.396841.402342011.10.31 06:551.402420.000.000.001.53
649675532011.10.31 04:31buy0.01audusd1.053231.049221.054722011.10.31 06:411.054750.000.000.001.52
649677222011.10.31 04:30buy0.01eurusd1.400341.396841.402342011.10.31 06:551.402420.000.000.002.08
649675592011.10.31 04:15buy0.01nzdusd0.809110.807110.811112011.10.31 06:070.811130.000.000.002.02
649675512011.10.31 04:15buy0.01audusd1.052741.049241.054742011.10.31 06:411.054750.000.000.002.01
0.000.000.0022.62
Closed P/L:22.62
Open Trades:
TicketOpen TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PPriceCommissionTaxesSwapProfit
No transactions
0.000.000.000.00
Floating P/L:0.00
 
danjp:


Here are mine this week +220. Last week was +350. My goal is between 900 - 1100 per month I am going to add another pair. I did alot of testing this week, I have about 5 other pairs I feel confident about trying.

Account: XXXXName: Daniel XXXXXCurrency: USD2011 November 4, 19:59
Closed Transactions:
TicketOpen TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PClose TimePriceCommissionTaxesSwapProfit
650059602011.11.02 13:23balanceAuto Account Sync with FXCM0.02
650031712011.11.02 10:59buy0.01euraud1.330351.325841.331342011.11.02 11:011.331320.000.000.001.00
650031692011.11.02 09:59buy0.01euraud1.329831.325841.331342011.11.02 11:011.331320.000.000.001.54
650031672011.11.02 09:46buy0.01euraud1.329291.325841.331342011.11.02 11:011.331320.000.000.002.10
650031662011.11.02 09:45buy0.01euraud1.328811.325841.331342011.11.02 11:011.331320.000.000.002.59
650031652011.11.02 09:45buy0.01euraud1.328731.326231.331732011.11.02 11:051.331560.000.000.002.92
649843512011.11.01 07:56buy0.01nzdusd0.803090.799590.803592011.11.01 08:070.799490.000.000.00-3.60
649843502011.11.01 07:37buy0.01nzdusd0.802670.799590.803592011.11.01 08:070.799490.000.000.00-3.18
649843492011.11.01 07:34buy0.01nzdusd0.802060.799590.803592011.11.01 08:070.799490.000.000.00-2.57
649843472011.11.01 07:30buy0.01nzdusd0.801540.799590.803592011.11.01 08:070.799530.000.000.00-2.01
649750632011.10.31 15:48sell0.01euraud1.315151.319991.314492011.10.31 18:481.314440.000.000.000.75
649750622011.10.31 15:48sell0.01euraud1.315671.319991.314492011.10.31 18:481.314440.000.000.001.30
649750612011.10.31 15:30sell0.01euraud1.316501.319991.314492011.10.31 18:481.314440.000.000.002.18
649750602011.10.31 15:28sell0.01euraud1.316911.319991.314492011.10.31 18:481.314440.000.000.002.62
649750592011.10.31 15:25sell0.01euraud1.317331.319991.314492011.10.31 18:481.314440.000.000.003.06
649677272011.10.31 06:55buy0.01eurusd1.402331.396841.402342011.10.31 06:551.402100.000.000.00-0.23
649677252011.10.31 05:50buy0.01eurusd1.401821.396841.402342011.10.31 06:551.402420.000.000.000.60
649675672011.10.31 04:50buy0.01nzdusd0.810770.807110.811112011.10.31 06:070.811130.000.000.000.36
649675642011.10.31 04:50buy0.01nzdusd0.810990.807110.811112011.10.31 06:070.811130.000.000.000.14
649675612011.10.31 04:50buy0.01nzdusd0.810990.807110.811112011.10.31 06:070.811130.000.000.000.14
649675562011.10.31 04:43buy0.01audusd1.054851.049221.054722011.10.31 04:431.054530.000.000.00-0.32
649675602011.10.31 04:41buy0.01nzdusd0.809680.807110.811112011.10.31 06:070.811130.000.000.001.45
649675552011.10.31 04:41buy0.01audusd1.054271.049221.054722011.10.31 06:411.054750.000.000.000.48
649677242011.10.31 04:41buy0.01eurusd1.401361.396841.402342011.10.31 06:551.402420.000.000.001.06
649675542011.10.31 04:39buy0.01audusd1.053671.049221.054722011.10.31 06:411.054750.000.000.001.08
649677232011.10.31 04:38buy0.01eurusd1.400891.396841.402342011.10.31 06:551.402420.000.000.001.53
649675532011.10.31 04:31buy0.01audusd1.053231.049221.054722011.10.31 06:411.054750.000.000.001.52
649677222011.10.31 04:30buy0.01eurusd1.400341.396841.402342011.10.31 06:551.402420.000.000.002.08
649675592011.10.31 04:15buy0.01nzdusd0.809110.807110.811112011.10.31 06:070.811130.000.000.002.02
649675512011.10.31 04:15buy0.01audusd1.052741.049241.054742011.10.31 06:411.054750.000.000.002.01
0.000.000.0022.62
Closed P/L:22.62
Open Trades:
TicketOpen TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PPriceCommissionTaxesSwapProfit
No transactions
0.000.000.000.00
Floating P/L:0.00

  • Ok, this is another thing that I have noticed, your live trades are very different from mine(i see more red than green), and i think this is due to the fact that you are backtesting each individual pair, and figuring out what parameters work best for profit?
  • My assumption for these results: each pair has a different set of setting for the EA, or are all of the pairs using the same set of settings? e.g. timeframes, tp, sl, standard dev...
  • These results are generated by the EA you last posted on this forum?


Could you also provide the following details in percentage?

  • Can you please breakdown time spent on each category for any single EA:
  • Time spent designing
  • Time spent developing
  • Time spent back-testing
  • Time spent forward-testing
  • Time spent live-testing
 
danjp:

Ok, it seems that there are fewer trades in the live account. <---- in my case so far, My EA's seam to be making more trades then when I tested using Stratagy Tester and less then the demo acct.

Things like backtesting and demo is only good for one thing: verifying your trading logic, anything other than that is garbage data <---- I agree, I use ST to get a range for settings, I use Visual Mode to make sure my logic is correct and trades are opening\closing when they are supposed to. I use a demo account to refine settings in an almost real market simulation.

So you have an EA that you think is going to go live, break your bank set your lots to 0.01 and test on a live account, otherwise any data you collect outside of what the system does for entry/exit is potentially garbage, primarily if the system is profitable or not. <---- Yes, if you don't believe this, run a demo and live account at the same time and see the difference, it will open your eye's!

From what I have learned, a difference in a few pips there and there, and a difference in a few orders there and there, in the long run can make or break your system <---- depends on the system, but to date I have not had any positive slippage only negative.

So the only real test of your system is the live account testing, forget forward-demo testing, and forget backtesting for profits or analytics. <--- yes but, you should be able to get some basic idea if your system is viable or not. Even though a robot is trading and the "emotions" are taken out, a human can still turn it off!!! You should get confidence not to do this by using every means to test.

Priceless lesson from this thread: forward-demo test and backtest evaluation is pure garbage, unless you are concerned with system entry/exit <---- I agree but don't skip these steps.

I will never again test any of my system on a demo account <---- I still think it's worth a week just to double check everything. Good for testing e-mail allerts, and error messages in the journal.

agreed
 
c0d3:
  • Ok, this is another thing that I have noticed, your live trades are very different from mine(i see more red than green), and i think this is due to the fact that you are backtesting each individual pair, and figuring out what parameters work best for profit?
  • My assumption for these results: each pair has a different set of setting for the EA, or are all of the pairs using the same set of settings? e.g. timeframes, tp, sl, standard dev...
  • These results are generated by the EA you last posted on this forum?

Could you also provide the following details in percentage?

  • Can you please breakdown time spent on each category for any single EA:
  • Time spent designing
  • Time spent developing
  • Time spent back-testing
  • Time spent forward-testing
  • Time spent live-testing


These results and the results I posted last week in an earlier post are from my EA's. I have two different EA's running on a small real account. One trades off patterns and the other is a counter trend EA. Lets call then A and B for simplicity. To give you a better idea of the time I have spent, some background. The "A" was the last in a long line of failures. By the time I started working on "A", I already had a decent shell of an EA, where I could just plug in a new strategy function and start testing pretty quick. I spent most of my time adding new functionality to that shell, as I worked on new stratagies that did not produce results to get all the way to a live account. This became the starting point of "A". Now let me try and answer your questions above.

I do back-test every pair that makes it to demo testing. I try not to change parameters per pair but there can be small differences, in "A" the bar pattern can use 4-5 bars so some pairs use 4 some do better with 5. SL can vary. In both "A" and "B" I have a dynamic SL or a fixed SL or a trailing SL. I run them all right now with a fixed SL and TP. These values can vary by 5 or 10 points depending on the pair. All the other parameters are the same. "A" runs on 5 minute charts, "B" runs on 15 minute charts. These are the only timeframes I am interested in trading. They all trade Monday - Thrusday, 2am - 11am EST. Any open trades are closed EOD Thurs. Both "A" and "B" can run on more pairs then I am running in the live acct. I have tested 6-7 addtional pairs on each. I have a subset of those running in demo account right now to see if they perform like the back-test.

EA Time Time B Comments
design 8hrs 4hrs I consider this phase coding everything in the EA but the stratagy. Any changes to the basic shell that I need for a new strategy.
development 6hrs 2hrs Strategy coding, debugging the code for bugs, checking entry/exits etc. I will use a visual chart with a random week of data to check that I have implemented the strategy correctly.
back-testing 1 week 1 week I spend alot of time here. I will test multiple pairs with an EA.
forward-testing 2 weeks 2 weeks If I am happy with the back-testing I drop it onto one of my demo accounts. I ususally have 3-4 pairs running on each account at any given time. It should be producing results similar to back-testing at least in the win%. Not much to do here just let then run for a few weeks. Good time to check (e-mail alerts, start-up\shutdown, trading hours, general order stuff).
live testing 2-4 weeks 2-4 weeks Three phases, 1) setup, in my case a VPS. I had some issues that drove me crazy for about a week. 2) small real account for testing,real money, real volume, slippage, etc. 3)move to standard account. Small real account is the real test. Run a demo acct and a real acct at the same time, see the differences, they will never match. Make sure EA is still working as expected.
Reason: