Why? I think - it is basicly because of fundamental factors: inflation and so on ( i mean: there is fundamental analysis, and there is technical analysis).
As to "where the price will go to" so just look at the chart on MN timeframe (technical analysis):
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
XAUUSD, MN1, 2013.05.14
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
gold possible breakdown
Chinkou Span line (light blue line on the left side of the chart) is very near to be crossed with historical price from above to below for possible breakdown, and the price is having 1321 support line on the way to downtrend. So, I think, if price will be falling for the next months so the "bottom" may be this 1321 support level.
But the situation is not as dramatic as some fundamental analytics are predicting about - you can see this monthly chart:
gold not drammatical
I mean: gold was on bullish during the many years and it is on primary bullish up to now: price is above Ichimoku cloud, and the border between bullish and bearish (Sinkou Span B line) is the other boder of the cloud. It means: if the price will fall dramatically so the total reversal will be somewhere at 1275 or 1109 (depends on the situation for example). So, gold is on bullish as primary trend on MN timeframe. :)
Yes, I agree - if the price will cross 1321 support level from above to below so it may be 'a signal' for near future possible reversal of the trend to primary bearish.
But ... if we attach Stochastic indicator and Demarker indicator to see oversold/overbought levels - we will receive the following situation on MN timeframe:
As we see from demarket - the price is in oversold condition; as we see from Stochastics - the price is very near to be oversold. I think - "the bottom" is somewhere about 1321 ...
Some people said that inflation will be increased and our life will become more worse (in the end of this year), and because of that - price for gold will go to uptrend (in the end of 2013) :) But I think - resistance levels for uptrend are 1723 and 1795 (2 stong resistance levels) ... so ...
The price is oversold for W1 timeframe too (and nearest resistance is 1590 for example) ... and it is already bearish for W1 and total reversal to primary bullish will be somewhere about 1621 (if the price will cross this level so it will be primary reversal to bullish for this W1 timeframe).
But there are as many resistance lines for the price on the way to uptrend so I do not expect good uptrend movement in the next few months sorry ...
I think - the bottom may be 1321 ...
you don't need any graphs: swap is positive for sell.
anyway, it looks like wave 4 (monthly graph).
If we will speak about patterns so we can see here (Gartley):
XAUUSD, W1, 2013.05.14
And this is retracement - finished pattern (for downtrend):
w1 retrecement finished pattern
And this is same pattern but it is developing up to now:
And this is Bat
and this is crab