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Monte Carlo Predictor MT4

The utility refers to probabilistic analysis tools, in particular the Monte Carlo method.

The Monte Carlo method is defined as the simulation of processes in purpose to evaluate their probabilistic characteristics and apply them to the solvable task.


Operation features

The simulation uses a tick model with the subsequent transformation to the candles form, as a model as close as possible to the real market process.

The utility generates a stream of a random tick sequence until a result with the best similarity to the original sample is obtained, and continues this stream as an expected further development of events.

This method of forecasting is based on synchronization of numerical distribution of the generated instance and the original sample.


Сontrol

The utility is controlled by a single button that has several states:

  • Pause - the utility is idle, pressing the button starts the process and puts the utility in the "Seek" state.
  • Seek - the utility works and searches for the most suitable instance, pressing the button puts the utility in the "Pause" state.
  • Satisfactory or Wonderfully - the result of verification of the generated instance and the original sample, pressing the button starts the continuation of the process and puts the utility in the "Seek" state.


Input variables

  • Candles - number of candles taken from the chart as the reference area.
  • Forecast - forecast size as a percentage of the total volume of the candles of the reference area.
  • Similarity - similarity criterion, as the number of candles as a percentage of the number of candles of the reference area, is unacceptable to fall outside the channel of reconciliation at closing prices.
  • Channel - width of the reconciliation channel in standard deviations, as the lower and upper bounds, is unacceptable to fall outside at closing prices.
  • Scale - multiplier for the tick size that controls the amplitude of the generation.
  • Norm - volume normalizer, this parameter slightly reduces the quality of simulation, but significantly speeds up the process of finding instances:
    • for value of 0 - normalization is not performed.
    • for values over 500 - normalization is performed relative to the total value of the volume columns of the candles of the reference area.
    • for values from 10 to 200 - normalization is performed relative to the average value of the volume columns of the candles of the reference area.
    • for values from 200 to 500 - normalization is performed relative to the maximum value of the volume columns of the candles of the reference area.
  • Shift - shift in history, allows to evaluate and adjust the quality of forecasts on the existing history.
  • Rand - dimension of the random number generator.
  • Alerts - notification method when the searching has finished.
  • Visible - displays the process, always or only when the searching has finished.
  • Pinpoints - enable/disable the control points when comparing the generated instance and the reference area.
  • Liquidity - enable/disable the follow of the daily template of tick activity for the forecasted candles.
  • Volumes - volume scale used in calculations, tick or real.

Other variables are related to color settings, and their purpose becomes clear from their names.


Features of testing trial version

  • In the strategy tester set the "Every tick" mode.
  • Adjust the tick rate to approximately no more than one tick per second.
  • Visualization of the process in the MT4 strategy tester is less dynamic than on a real chart, so just switch the utility to the "Seek" state and expect the result as a forecast in the form of yellow candles.
  • Also use the input variable "Shift" according to its purpose.


Useful notes

  • The forecast should not be taken as the ultimate truth.
  • Also should not to focus on the forecasted candles, as if they already exist.
  • Pay attention mainly to the direction of the forecast, as well as the intensity of this direction.
  • Additionally perform a visual verification of the generated instance and the reference area.
  • Use the utility only as an accessory tool in conjunction with your main trading strategy.

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版本 2.1 2019.07.28
Modified the algorithm of reconciliation channel.
The reconciliation channel participates in the pre-calibration, just as the amplitude (at the value of the input variable Scale is zero). During the pre-calibration, the channel width is gradually changed to a larger or smaller side, depending on the trading symbol and the mode of the Volumes input variable.
The pre-calibration process starts immediately after pressing the Start button and can last from ten seconds to several minutes, depending on the trading symbol. Upon completion of the pre-calibration process, the generation automatically starts again from the starting point defined by the Seed input variable and continues until the end of the search for a suitable variant, followed by the issuance of a forecast.
版本 2.0 2019.06.01
Improved automatic adjustment algorithm of the generation amplitude (for mode Scale=0).
版本 1.9 2019.05.20
Improved Alignment function algorithm.
Improved Pinpoints function algorithm for ExtOfExt mode.
The variables of the linear-congruent random number generator are open to the user. The generator works according to the classical formula Seed=(Seed*Multiplier+Summand)%Divider. The input variable Bit specifies the bit number (0-63) in the 64-bit word from which the value for tick generation is taken. The state of this bit equal to 0 is defined as a negative tick, the state equal to 1 is defined as a positive tick. The input variable Specular changes the tick sign to the opposite.
版本 1.8 2019.05.09
Added the new mode Without to the list of modes of the input variable Volumes. If you doubt the readings of the volume scale that your broker broadcasts, then you can use this mode, but, this mode is relevant for timeframes not lower than H4.
Added the function of automatic adjustment of the generation amplitude. To enable this function, set the value of the input variable Scale equal to zero. Using this feature improves the quality of the forecasting.
Added the new function Modulator. This function forces the generation to strive to become similar to the original sample. Using this feature improves the quality of the forecasting.
版本 1.7 2018.11.11
Improved random number generator algorithm for 32-bit execution.
版本 1.6 2018.10.19
Optimized the source code to speed up its work.
版本 1.5 2018.10.19
Optimized the source code to speed up its work.
版本 1.4 2018.10.17
Fixed a bug in the algorithm for drawing conrol points (pinpoints).
版本 1.3 2018.10.14
Improved the algorithm for building the reconciliation channel.
版本 1.2 2018.10.07
Improved algorithm of adaptation to gaps.
Added feature Alignment, that aligns the points OLHC of candles relative to the average volume. To see these candles, switch the chart to the line view mode.