Zaimi Yazid / Профиль

USD INDEX: An absolute minimum target met. With the move above 95.48 the absolute minimum target for the bull triangle, a new trend high has been achieved. The ideal target is however set at 97.07 so there's still ample room to advance should the market decide to do so. For today it is also essential that we don't close below 94.91, creating a bearish key day reversal hence indicating a premature ending to the current ascent. Ideally buyers at the low end, 95.25, of the weekend gap to prevent a deeper drop.

The following are latest short-term (mostly intraday) trading strategies for EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD.

EURUSD: Although prefer shorts, stay flexible and play the intraday moves given important data releases this week. Have net been buyers over the past week but with very limited impact and see no reason to fight the trend.

USDJPY: Had fairly muted interest in the last few days and steady headed higher since Fed Chair Yellen's testimony last week in line with the US dollar and UST yields. Buy USDJPY below 119.50 with a stop below 118.60/70, the 50-day moving average and daily Ichimoku cloud.

GBPUSD: Cable had a slow start this week. The pair has short-term support around 1.5400 but the first stronger support is around 1.5330-40. Buy on dips closer to that level.

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USD: After breaking through and closed above triangle resistance line, it did retrace down until previous resistance line now became support line. Next challenge line will be 95.53 (Jan-26 high).

Brent Crude: Is the $63-level out of reach now? Sellers responded yesterday and cut a 2nd 63.00 attempt short with a little margin. But as long as holding above 57.80 this option remains open. For today, a double 58.10/62.63 watch seems appropriate. Current intraday stretches are located at 59.05 & 62.70.

EURJPY: On a slippery slope. After three days of failed upside attempts above the mid body point of Monday's bearish engulfing candle the sellers stepped up to the plate and aggressively pushed the cross lower. More supply is expected to hit the market once the 133.56 support has been cleared (thereafter focus will be turning to the 132.57 – 132.00 area. Upside reactions should be limited to the 134.30-area.

EURUSD: Finally a directional move. With the break of 1.1262 the green light has been given for a move down to a fresh trend low. The triangle's theoretical target is 1.0840 (minimum target is marginally pass the recent low point 1.1098) so there should be ample of room for the pair to move lower in the near term. However as triangles often tends to be the last congestion in a trend move the following low point (below 1.1098) will also be a somewhat more lasting one creating the foundation for a profound bounce (back to 1.15?).

USD INDEX: On the road again. After a little more than a month of consolidation in a bull triangle the greenback yesterday made an impulsive and successful exit hence confirming the resumption of the bull trend. The next obstacle will be the January peak, 95.48, but it will probably not cause much of a problem for the market to pass. The theoretical target for the triangle is 97.07 and once met the risk of a more substantial correction will start increasing.

The following are latest short-term trading strategies for EURCHF, EURGBP, and USDCAD.

EURCHF: Fade dips to 1.0670-00; rallies should run out of steam above 1.08. Play the ranges with tight stops.

EURGBP: Sell rallies with stops above 0.7350- 75, for a final break lower.

USDCAD: remains a buy on dips to 1.2310-1.2400 with stops below 1.2250.

USDCAD: Bullish Engulfing; EURUSD: Breakout

Evidence says that the Greenback is resuming its long term bulltrend after 3-4wks of consolidation.

In the USD Index, today's break of Triangle resistance confirms a return to trend.

Upside targets are seen to 97.01 and potentially beyond. Pullbacks should not break the 34d avg, while a move below the Feb-03 low at 93.25 invalidates the bullish setup.

Meanwhile, in USDCAD it looks to be completing its 3wk range trade with today's reversal higher.

Indeed, a close above 1.2487 would complete a Bullish Engulfing Candle on daily charts, adding to the bullish body of evidence. A break of 1.2643/1.2665 would confirm a resumption of the bull trend for 1.3035.

Finally, bearish breakout in EURUSD indicates an end to its consolidation and a resumption of its larger bear trend arguing that following this break, price action should not trade above the Feb-19 high at 1.1451.

EURUSD break of 1.1270 (the Feb-09 low) targets 1.1098 (Jan-25 low) ahead of the Sep’03 low at 1.0765 and eventually below.

USD: Trying to sustain above triangle resistance line?

EURUSD finally falls out of range – more to come?

EURUSD was stuck in a narrow range throughout February. However, in the penultimate day of the month, the pair finally moves lower and trades at the lowest since January 27th.

The trigger was a one-two punch from the US: bullish words from Bullard and solid inflation data, that emerged as a winner from a big bulk of figures.

James Bullard, the president of the Saint Louis Fed, referred to both sides of the currency: he said the strong dollar will only have a marginal effect on growth. And, he added that the ECB’s QE is likely to push the euro further to the downside.

Once the Greek story is moved to the back burner, there is still this monetary policy divergence issue which weighs on the pair.

Janet Yellen was perceived as dovish, but she was actually preparing markets on for a removal of forward guidance in March.

With core inflation at 1.6% and job creation still solid, a June hike is still on the table.

EURUSD dropped below support at 1.127 and reached a low at the round number of 1.12, followed by 1.11. On the topside, 1.127 turns into resistance, followed by 1.1373 and 1.146.

Here is how it looks on the chart:

USD: How long its consolidation mode?

Break and close above 95.00 or below 93.56 will end its consolidation mode.

The following are latest short-term (mostly intraday) trading strategies for EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD.

EURUSD: While the buying interest below 1.1300 seems powerful, sellers are lined up around 1.1500. This indicates that the recent range will remain intact. Stay flexible and fade 50-60pip moves on either side with stops at 1.1240 or 1.1460.

USDJPY: Has been rangebound since Fed Chair Yellen's speech. Dollar weakness over the past few sessions provides a good opportunity to buy USDJPY around 118.30-118.50, for a break of 119.30 and toward 119.80. Flows are fairly balanced. Support comes in at 118.00.

GBPUSD: Cable confirmed the break above 1.5500 yesterday and ran stops through 1.5510-20 up to 1.5538. Stay on the sidelines in cable for now to see whether the market targets 1.5600 or fades the recent moves.

AUDNZD: Correctional peak likely in place. The favored 1.0490\10 correctional objective was missed with a tiny margin before selling resumed and knocked the cross back lower. So a correctional high is most likely in place, a sub-1.0350 drop is all that is needed to confirm this – and then with a fresh low (<1.0300) at hand. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.0365 & 1.0470 (but this cross has a nasty habit of hugging one or the other and only post minor rejections on the way down (or up)).

USDCAD: Triangle - make or break? If the past month’s consolidation is a bullish triangle, which has been and still is our working assumption, then the market should/must step up to the plate and start buying the pair ahead of the c-wave low, 1.2360, or an alternate wave count must be implemented (opening up for 1.2248). The best fitted pattern will be a drop below 1.2395 and then turning higher (without having violated 1.2360).

USDJPY: Still looking for lower prices. The false upside break, the up-thrust top still calls for the market to try lower levels. The very slow recovery from yesterday’s low point, 118.62, also indicates that the market should be vulnerable to renewed selling. So if our assumption is right selling should resume basically here and now calling for next a move down to 118.30 and/or 118.10.

EURUSD: Quo vadis? Since a few days the market is established below the lower boundary of the triangle but annoyingly without downside follow through. So far bids below 1.13 have repeatedly (see the downside spikes) been preventing the market from breaking below the 1.1262 key support (and barrier to a new trend low). To get any directional input the market must at least move above 1.1450 or fall below 1.1262.

The following are latest short-term (mostly intraday) trading strategies for EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDCAD.

EURUSD: The buying interest below 1.1300 seems powerful and with sellers lined up around 1.1500, the recent range should remain intact. Stay flexible and fade 50-60pip moves in either direction with stops at 1.1240-1.1460.

GBPUSD: Cable just traded through 1.5500 for the first time this year. Expect the pair to trade in a 1.56-1.58 range soon. Buy cable on dips to yesterday's high, with a stop below 1.5450.

USDCAD: sharply retraced on combination of a dovish Yellen and BoC's Poloz stressing on the downside risk insurance provided by last meeting's surprise rate cut. Go long towards the lower end of the current range, buying on dips to 1.24-1.2310 with stops below 1.2250.

1.Trading is not a get rich quick scheme; it is a normal investment that gets you return on capital.

Did you ever hear of a trader making 100% percent return per month on a consistent basis? If you did, did you see a proof of that?

Trading professionally with proper money management would likely get you a return of few percents a month, from my personal experience a 3-5% return on capital per month is a very realistic number, and could be the ultimate target for any successful trader...

So if you’re that kind of person who wants to “make a killing” trading please reconsider your expectations.

2. You should be well-capitalized. Small accounts will probably burn you.
This point is really correlated to the first one, let me illustrate by an example:

Suppose that you have a 30k trading account, according to the 3-5 percent return per month rule; that would give you 1000-$1500 return per month, which is relatively a very good number.

Now let’s assume that you have a 5k account, according to the 3-5 percent return per month rule, which would return 150-$250 per month.

In the 5k case, the return would likely be not-satisfying for someone looking to trade for living and for a consistent income. Would it be for you?
Wouldn't you take more risk to increase that return, and break your money management rules to make better return? I think you would.. It's a complete psychological game...

3.Technical Analysis doesn’t work all the time, assumption we make will always have a percentage of failure. The main goal is to keep you risk limited, and your targets bigger than your risk to make consistent profit on the long run.

4.Trading is not about forecasting the market, do not try to be smart and always forecast where markets are headed. What a trader does is, wait for the market to GIVE him certain conditions that validates a trade. (Don’t trade under the market rules, trade under your rules). Do you feel sometimes that your lost and don’t know what to do ? its probably because of this, This is very important, and the avoids you from getting lost in the process..

5. If you did use stop loss on your trades within the past year, but you didn't and took excessive risk only on one trade, this single trade might wipe out all of the profits you gained through the year.
How many times, did you ignore your stop loss convincing your self that you will close at better price, and guess what it may have worked sometimes, but what if the price goes against you more and more, would you mentally strong and able to close at a bigger loss? Or you probably won’t, and end up with a margin call.

6. Don’t over analyze, over analysis and complicating your tools will lead to confusion and not necessarily efficient.
7. Ignore your bias, trades require technical evidence 3,4 or 5 conditions that occur at the same time making you enter a trade.

8. Always use a top to down analysis approach, from the higher time frame to the lower time frame, because the higher the time frame the more strong and invulnerable the trend is, and the more strong and invulnerable the support and resistance levels are.

9. Trading setups that occur within the context of the trend usually turn more profitable than those against the trend.

10. Don’t give up when you encounter a losing streak, yeah it can go up to 10 losing trades… don’t worry it’s normal in trading.

Hope you found it useful and enjoyable... If you have points that you would add to this, I would be happy to hear them, please comment and discuss..