Hello,

Thank you for purchasing my indicator!

These lines are a separate indicator HMA_Color, which is designed to visualize and monitor the operation of the HMA_Trend_Pro indicator. You can use it for free.

Hello,

It works well on any TF. I used TF M1 to demonstrate the deal on the video.

In reality, I trade on timeframes from H4 to M5.

Hello Mr. Zamoshnikov,

 I bought the HMA Pro Indicator, I have installed it on

Mt4, but I cannot close the Probability Chart window nor can I move it.

Can you please guide me.

Also, I am confused about the numbers in the chart, the Math Expectation, Standard

Deviation, the Crosshair etc, I saw the Video but I cannot understand how to figure out

  the reversal or its probability.

how to practically use this information ?

I'll greatly appreciate your help in this regard.

thanks.

Hello,

I purchased your product a few weeks ago, and I am still testing it out, but I like it so far!

However, it seems that the indicator has been removed from my charts. Although it is showing in my list of indicators in MT4, I cannot re-attach it to my existing charts or attach it to a new chart.

I had a Windows 10 update this weekend. Could it have something to do with that?

Yes, this problem may be after Windows 10 update. Please remove the indicator from your list in MT4 and download it again from the Market service. If you can not do this, please contact Service Desk.

This happens sometimes when the indicator is abnormally shut down. Then all the drawn objects remain on the chart. I'm now looking for a way to solve this problem.
You can delete these objects manually for now. Press CTRL+B on this chart, click the "List All" button to see the hidden objects and remove all objects of type Bitmap Label with the name beginning with ProbablyPanel_

This indicator is a professional instrument and it is quite complicated in understanding and mastering.

You need to know the theory of probability and the mathematical expectation and standard deviation. You need to do this yourself. I can not explain this briefly. This is a big topic. If you are interested, then you can find the theory of probability on the Internet.

First just don't try to open deals if the probability of reversal is more than 70-80%.

I'll try to describe how the indicator gets the statistic data.

The indicator analyzes history. It counts the number of bars in each movement of the HMA indicator before it turns, that is, how many bars each line of the HMA indicator has. Then the indicator counts how many times there were so many bars in history. For example, the length of the color HMA line in 1 bar was 20 times, the length of the line in 2 bars was 32 times, the length of the line in 6 bars was 146 times, etc.

This is a graph of the frequency of the distribution of movements. On the histogram it is drawn in gray.

Further, we believe that the probability of a trend reversal is 100% at the highest length of the HMA line in history. We also know all the lengths of the HMA indicator lines and how many times these lengths appeared on the history. I will not write these formulas here; this is a very big topic.

The probability of a line of any length (the number of bars in one color line of the HMA indicator) is the probability that the HMA indicator will unfold when its line reaches this length. This is the blue graph on the histogram, that is, the dependence of the probability of the HMA indicator line turn from the number of bars in this line.

Thus, for any length of the HMA line, we can predict the probability of its reversal.

There is a range of HMA line lengths, in which the probability of reversal is particularly high. On the histogram it is green.

It seems to me that if a trader wants to be successful in the market, then he must know at least the basics of probability theory. You've probably heard statements that trading in financial markets is the trading in probability.

This is indeed so. Movements in the market can be represented as a distribution of a random variable, which at first glance does not lend itself to a forecast. But mathematical expectation, standard deviation are statistical characteristics of a random variable, which are no longer a random variable.

That is, using statistical data, we can estimate the probability of changing a random variable or the probability of a reversal in our case.

Hello and thanks for awesome indicator, already I am able to re-think my trading! Some questions.

In the Overview, all the displays have 220 for the slow HMA, but I believe the default is 120, did something change at some point?

In the last reply you say "First just don't try to open deals if the probability of reversal is more than 70-80%."

but not said if that is for the Fast or Slow HMA, we need some context here?

What if the Slow HMA is red / down while the Fast HMA is blue / up but 90% ready to turn down?

Thank you

Thank you for using my indicator!

I am in continuous improvement of my trading system, based on the HMA_Trend_Pro indicator.

At the moment it's better to use the value of slow HMA from 100 to 120 in my opinion.

This applies to both fast HMA, and slow HMA, of course.

But first of all it's the Slow HMA. Because if you enter the market at the end of the current movement (its probability is determined by the fast HMA), then you can wait out the movement against the deal, because it can be a correction. But if you enter the market at the end of the trend (determined by the Slow HMA), then you risk losing much more.

If the reversal probability of the Fast HMA is 90%, but the Slow HMA probability is less than 70%, this is a signal to the end of the up-movement and continue the down-trend.

@ Pavel,

Thanks for the reply, very assuring to have continuing support and ongoing development of HMA Trend Pro indicator.

A few more questions. Given that HMA Trend Pro reads the price History, is there a minimum or recommended number for the settings of Metatrader Max. bars in history and Max. bars in chart?

Also, in the Overview there is a setting – Rendering depth of signals but this does not appear in the actual indicator; is that not required anymore? Perhaps time to update the Overview?

Why is there a choice for the HMA averaging method? I thought the Hull MA was already custom formula for MA, so what is the purpose of this setting?

Any chance of more video to explain the indicator and settings details with actual speaking, not just pictures? Especially the probability graph! It doesn’t have to be about trading, regards, John

You ask very good and interesting questions. Thank you.

As you understand, the more bars history has, the more accurately the indicator calculates the probability values. This is especially critical for Slow HMA. You can see it if you switch to the monthly timeframe.

The recommended number of 5000 bars on the chart and more. Minimum number of bars is not less than 3000. At this amount, the calculation error is insignificant.

But you can still estimate the reversal probability, even if the chart has up to 500 bars. Just keep in mind that the error of calculating the probability at the boundaries of the standard deviation and at the level of mathematical expectation reaches about 10-15%.

You can see for yourself by changing the number of bars on the chart

This parameter is used in the version for MT5 to speed up the rendering of the indicator. The version for MT4 works quite quickly even without this parameter.

Thank you that you told me about this, I'll ask the tech support to adjust the Overview.

This parameter is actively used in the calculation of Hull MA. You can see this if you look at the code of the free indicator HMA_Color. My indicator calculates HMA in a similar way.

As a rule, a linear-weighted method is used, but probably traders need to be given a choice.

Unfortunately, I don't have time for this now. I'm very sorry.

Pavel,

Thanks you for good response. It's all great, working fine, I will keep in touch for any other issues

Regards, John

Добрый день, Павел ! Очень хороший продукт. Вопрос о Ваших планах, нет намерения сделать на основе средних Халла MACD или OSMA ? Мне кажется их дивергенции были бы весьма информативны. Или сделать опции разного вида средних (Халла в том числе) для вот этого Вашего индикатора - MACDivergence MTF MT4 (расположенного здесь - http://forex-prog.com/shop/13/desc/macd-divergence-mtf-mt4) ?

С уважением, Александр

Александр, добрый день!

Мысль интересная. Конечно, не факт, что выйдет удачный продукт, но попробовать можно.

Спасибо за идею!

PS. большая просьба - не размещайте здесь ссылки на сторонние ресурсы. Это запрещено и Вас могут забанить...

I'm sorry, but at this time it is impossible to fully program all features of the indicator for EA.

The main things of the indicator (the number of bars in the current movement, the probability of the reversal, Math.expectation, st.deviation) can not be transferred to the Expert Advisor in the standard way (via the iCustom() function).