Week: 0% but it's been a short trading one with less activity and participants. 2.97% for the month to date but not quite ready to call the month yet. I've a few short positions in a very overbought NZDJPY. I wonder what are the odds that Kim Jong Un fires a missile over the Sea of Japan in the next few days. Hmm!
ALPINE GROUP: Week 2.66%. A lot has already been said but suffice to say people who thought it was high reward got to see and more importantly feel what high risk is like. This is the reason I am so fussy about who is in the MAM account in the first place. Thanks for your patience, thanks for your kind words, thanks for your balls of steel.
Following on from the recent trades in GBPCHF and now that those trades are closed in profit you should;
Understand that Blackwave Alpine/Australia = High Risk
Understand that Blackwave Pacific = Medium Risk
Understand that Blackwave California = Low Risk
Understand where the DD's for these accounts are modeled to go to stay well within risk parameters.
Understand the maximum position size based on your balance versus the examples given below.
While there are a few copy trading websites and you have all clicked on buttons that say you accept the risk I don't want it to go unsaid from Blackwave's point of view that you must understand the product, understand the risks, understand that trading forex is risky. If you do not understand the product you must in good conscience UNSUBSCRIBE.
Fairly decent pull back off overbought conditions brings the DD back to where it was before the election result and moving closer down to the weekly M.A. It's a busy week for Sterling with a BOE rate decision on Thursday. I'd love to be back to cash by month end and am definitely aiming for that. In the mean-time with the reduced DD and the markets seeing new political developments as a risk to Sterling I may try one or two other trades while we wait for GBPCHF.
That way there’s less to do once we are out of GBPCHF to get a decent December.
In the mean-time with many of the snowflakes who have sent me messages like "fu8k you Gary you fu*king stupid stupid man" are gone I've reduced the price again slightly to $30. I sent most of those guys the strategy MORE THAN ONCE but I guess they were over-leveraging or just not believing me.
"If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating.......
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!" - Kipling
There’s no question that we take risks. The high risk account is HIGH risk and we are usually reminded of that every 12 months or so. We’ve always gotten out of it because even though the DD was tiny for a long time I never raise position size. The decision to buy GBPCHF was a mistake but the position size was correct and that’s how we survive mistakes. WHEN we get back to cash we will have all made up to 80% this year compared to the German 10 year yield which is actually-0.26%. Your money is guaranteed by the German government but they are actually charging you for the stability. https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/germany
Basically having bid Sterling up in anticipation of a Tory majority our bet is that the market sells off on Friday after the rumour becomes fact. Obviously a Labour win or anything that complicates a Tory win will help but we simply need #GBPCHF to move back towards the weekly 14 period MA which is under 1.27. Failing that we have our strategy.
SWAPS represent about 1.5% of the balance so only a profit +1.5% is true break even. After that we are in the black.
The way I see it there's two things going against us. 1. Sterling is rallying on the expectation of the Tory's gaining more seats, and having a working majority, ending paralysis and 2. Equity markets are strong with the S&P 500 engulfing losses to push to within reach of all time highs weakening the safe haven Swiss Franc.
I see Sterling perhaps gaining further next week though obviously it's pricing in perfection and as soon as the election results are counted we will start worrying about either parliamentary arithmetic or BREXIT or a trade deal or whatever. This assumes there is no wobble in equity markets that seem to be pushing for what will probably amount to a "push through failure" to all time highs before correcting significantly.
The question then is can we afford to wait. I think right now we can. DD in Alpine is 15% (in the low risk more like 5%) and while it's boring to wait it is also part of the strategy. I won't add to this position before the election results come in (an advantage to manual over automated strategies). This keeps it safer.
Again no gain in cash this week but slow and steady keeps us safe and in shape for 2020.
FYI I sent the following into my managed clients group chat this morning.
“ The last time I had a decent DD I had about 100 of them, this time over 600 and it appears 50% of them are 100% prime snowflake so there is definitely a sense of being under siege. I am now conscious of it and taking it with a pinch of salt but it was a bit of an eye opener at first. When this basket closes I will have a good think about weather I want to continue with the website MQL5 which appears to be the source of most of the shoestring accounts and destructive comments.”
It’s not definitive but it’s up for evaluation when this basket closes. I simply don’t need the venomous comments and it’s not productive to clear headed trading. I don’t need the money. Alternatively I may just raise the price to make it uneconomic to follow me with $500.
Well the current DD in Alpine (high risk account) is circa 9%. The election is of course coming but there is also the CHF component. A sharp decline in the equity markets or any event that causes a flight to a safe haven asset like the Franc will help our trade. The volatility around the UK general election itself may help our trade.
The strategy in general requires volatility to work and so far we are nowhere near the point that would be stressful or dangerous to the accounts. That is not to say that people are not stressed because there are plenty of people out there who in spite of me begging and pleading with them not to, have over-leveraged me or are simply bored and need a "fix" with some sort of action. I can't blow millions of dollars to satisfy them. I suggest the guys trashing me on the forums read the strategy again.
It’s definitely been a frustrating few weeks, not only because of the drawdown but also because I’ve spent the last week in India and while I can stay in close touch with the market it is still not comfortable to be away from the desk. I’ll be back at the desk on Monday.
I’m also fielding dozens of fairly angry and often ill informed copy traders with comments like “another Sterling nightmare”, ignoring the fact that BREXIT has made us huge money since 2017. They can of course be justifiably frustrated as I am, but as the trader I can’t make the market move, my job is to react rationally and I will continue to do that. I can not blow millions of dollars because people are frustrated that the money tree has temporarily stopped growing.
So anyway yesterday’s shooting star candle was a little encouraging and may lead to further declines in the coming sessions. Sterling remains fairly strong across a number of pairs including GBPCHF and that won’t last forever. CHF by itself is obviously a safe haven currency so it is reasonable to assume that a safe haven currency will be required sooner or later thus helping our trade. Current DD in the high risk account circa 8%, well within safety parameters.
Hmm. People appear to be panicking over a 5% DD so here is the strategy again.
Blackwave Strategy - Basics
The strategy is a manual grid strategy. While it has traded exotic and EM pairs profitably in the past it only trades major and minor forex pairs now to reduce
the cost of SWAPS and the inherent political/geographic/economic uncertainty around many exotic/EM pairs. When markets are overbought or close to overbought trades are opened
counter-trend. When profit targets are hit trades are closed. If the market continues to move against the initial position then a second trade is opened based on candlestick
price action and how the market is trading/pending news etc. Up to 12 positions maybe opened.
When markets are oversold or close to oversold trades are opened counter-trend. When profit targets are hit trades are closed. If the market continues to move against the
initial position then a second trade is opened based on candlestick price action and how the market is trading/pending news etc. Up to 12 positions may be opened.
Risk control is achieved through position sizing. Position sizing MUST be the most important feature of the strategy because there is no hard stop loss and no hedging.
People will often happily accept extraordinary profits and only query the strategy when they experience a stressful drawdown in their own account even while the master account
remains quite safe. This is because they have failed to understand how crucial position sizing is for the strategy.
While there is no hard stop loss there is a soft one which is market dependent and as follows;
This strategy has produced excellent profits since 2015 and is now one of the oldest strategies on most copy trading platforms. It is the inspiration for three MAM accounts
managing $3m of other peoples money. I never place trades in client accounts that I do not wish to place in my own accounts too and as at June 2019 my own commitment to this
strategy across all three risk levels is $190k.
These are the basics. To give any more information would be to reduce my flexibility and take away the major advantage of a manual strategy and make it effectively automated.
As a former stockbroker I like to watch all markets at once and get a sense of what's going on rather than put blind faith in back-testing which in the end only tests the past.
Links below to Blackwave Money Accounts which demonstrates my personal commitment to this strategy.