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SignalX Risk of Ruin

45 USD

パブリッシュ済み: 10 11月 2026

現在のバージョン: 1.0

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SignalX Risk of Ruin

ユーティリティ
Ahmed Ismail Muhammad Ismail Al Talhat
バージョン: 1.0
アクティベーション: 5

What this is

The three numbers that decide whether a sizing plan survives are the ones most traders already know: hit rate, average win against average loss, and risk percent per trade. This panel takes those three and estimates, by Monte Carlo on a binomial outcome model, the probability of losing a chosen fraction of the account across a chosen number of trades. There is no prediction here and no claim about any strategy; the inputs are the user own and the output is a statement about the arithmetic of their position sizing.

What it does

From hit rate, average win/average loss ratio and risk percent per trade, estimates the probability of losing a chosen fraction of the account over a chosen number of trades via Monte Carlo on the binomial outcome model.

No prediction and no claim about any strategy: the inputs are the user's own and the output is a statement about the arithmetic of their sizing. Answers whether risk per trade is survivable at a given hit rate, which is a different question from whether the strategy is good.
Runs on a single chart; it does not need to be the chart you trade from.
No DLL calls. No external services. No network requests.
No account, terminal, symbol or time limitation is embedded.

Inputs

Input	Type	Default
InpHitRatePct	double	45.0
InpPayoffRatio	double	1.8
InpRiskPct	double	1.0
InpRuinDrawdown	double	20.0
InpTrades	int	200
InpPaths	int	5000
InpSeed	int	20261108
InpShowPanel	bool	true
InpPanelX	int	12
InpPanelY	int	24

How to use it

Attach the utility to a chart; it draws itself and needs no other file.
Set the inputs to match how you read the chart. Defaults are deliberately plain.
Nothing is sent anywhere: it reads the chart it sits on and writes only to that chart.
Test on a demo account first. That is not a formality; the defaults are not tuned to your broker.

Notes

Written for MetaTrader 4, any broker. It uses only standard platform functions; no DLL, no external library.
Coexists with other tools on the same account; it only touches what you point it at.
It performs management and measurement only; it does not generate trading signals.

Honest limits

This is a tool, not a strategy. It does not predict anything and it cannot make a losing method profitable.
No performance figures are published for it because tools of this kind do not have a meaningful backtest curve of their own.
If your broker quotes oddly (very wide spreads, non-standard tick values) verify the sizing on a demo account before using real funds.

Trading involves risk of loss. Nothing here is financial advice.

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