Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu / Perfil

This week:

I had mentioned on Monday, Mr. Powell’s testimony is one of the key market movers this week. The impact observed yesterday was worth a good set of trades. And we traded well! Selling above 1808 and buying below 1777 on 30.11.2021 have us handsome returns.

Today:

STOCKS HIGH today as per data + Powell testifies + Yellen speech + Economic Data = HIGH VOLATILITY after 25 minutes from now.

Avoid pile ups. Observe SR zones.

NFP on 03.12.2021: $45-70 expected.
Holding the trades is NOT a good idea.
1769-1745 OR 1808-1818

Looks as the next target depending on the data and more fundamentals yet to be published.
Entering near PIVOT 1774 (1777 zone) not a good idea.


ETD 18.12.2021 | GOLD

NFP on 03.12.2021 | FED MEET 14-15.12

Join TELEGRAM channel for latest updates and market analysis:
Copy this url and paste in browser: https://bit.ly/AnalysisbyPR

#PiyushRatnu #BullionTrading #Trading #Dubai

The Omicron COVID-19 variant has a 'very high' risk of infection surges, according to WHO

In a technical brief released on Monday, the World Health Organisation said the new Omicron variant is likely to spread internationally and could have "severe consequences" for some parts of the world. The variant has a high number of mutations which is part of the reason the "overall global risk related to the new variant ...is assessed as very high".

Uncertainty might trigger volumes and price UP in GOLD.

Gold near Pivot Point CMP 1796 (r) zone.

US S 28%
JPY S 48%
AUD S 91%

I suggest all traders to be extra cautious today, markets have opened after long weekend, additional volumes can stir price in one direction, as per current candle patterns and volatility: price trap looks quite tight between 1796-1790, the breach of the same will result in 1808-1818 zone or 1777-1745 zone.

Pre session NY: will be worth observing, decent movement was observed during Asian and London session pre/opening pressures.

Avoid pile ups, exit in net average - keep principle safe.

14-17 December: I am expecting good volatility of upto $75-90 in total. One wrong set in wrong direction can result in higher floating loss.

This week: One must observe:

Mr. Powell Testifies today
Mr. Biden's statement on COVID SA Strain
WHO statements on COVID restrictions
Lockdown status at various countries
COVID numbers | death rate
Inflation data
XAUXAG Ratio
DXY | US10YT | US Futures
SR zones
ISM PMI data

Join TELEGRAM channel for latest updates and market analysis:
Copy this url and paste in browser: https://bit.ly/AnalysisbyPR

#PiyushRatnu #BullionTrading #Trading #Dubai

1866-1832-1818-1808-1796-1777

Repetition: History repeated once again.

Join TELEGRAM channel for latest updates and market analysis:
Copy this url and paste in browser: https://bit.ly/AnalysisbyPR

#PiyushRatnu #BullionTrading #Trading #Dubai

THE Crash SCENARIO: 22.11.2021

Join TELEGRAM channel for latest updates and market analysis:
Copy this url and paste in browser: https://bit.ly/AnalysisbyPR

#PiyushRatnu #BullionTrading #Trading #Dubai

Launched new algorithm successfully.

Combination of 36 parameters | Exclusively for SPOT GOLD.

First set of BUY trades: Entry levels suggested by Algorithm.
Net Average: 400 pips in 30 minutes.

Join TELEGRAM channel for latest updates and market analysis:
Copy this url and paste in browser: https://bit.ly/AnalysisbyPR

#PiyushRatnu #BullionTrading #Trading #Dubai

The coordinated effort to lower energy prices: WHY?

Core bonds rose yesterday with USTs outperforming the Bund, shrugging off a tailed US 20y bond sale. The US yield curve bull flattened with changes ranging from -1.8 bps (2y) to -5.3 bps (30y). US housing starts disappointed in contrast to building permits, suggesting demand is solid but material and labour shortages weigh on construction. In addition, Brent oil prices fell towards the $80/b neckline after word got out that US President Biden wants the Federal Trade Commission to use all tools to examine fuel price wrongdoing.

Markets took it as another hint the US will eventually release some of the strategic oil reserves to ease prices. The oil price decline was a key driver for faltering inflation expectations (-3 to -4 bps) in the US. German yields closed flat on face value but real yields (10y) hit a new all-time low at -2.25% in underlying dynamics. This was the main reason for EUR/USD’s lackluster performance even though the greenback corrected in general.

Two stories feature Asian dealings this morning. Japanese stocks erase previous losses after newspaper Nikkei reported the new Japanese fiscal stimulus package would amount to 55.7tn yen compared to the 40tn previously estimated. Chances of government support being ramped up rose after Q3 GDP figures last week disappointed heavily. The yen loses out vs. USD and EUR. A survey by the RBNZ showing inflation expectations rose to a decade high spurred rate hike bets and lifts the kiwi dollar (cfr. infra). Core bonds and other dollar pairs trade flat.

Reuters reports that China is working on the release of crude oil reserves although the country’s National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration kept silence on the US’ request to disclose any details. The Biden administration is lobbying countries like China, India and Japan to consider releasing stockpiles in a coordinated effort to lower energy prices. My question is WHY>?:

The unusual request comes after OPEC+ on several occasions declined to meet Biden’s request to speed up production increases. Brent crude since yesterday fell from $82/barrel to just below $80/b. The latter serves as a technical neckline of a short term double top formation with targets near $74/b.

IMPACT on GOLD: OBVIOUSLY, YES!

Those who missed my analysis and past data records published by me earlier highlighting the co-relation between US Dollar Strength, Oil and GOLD as core factors.

GOLD

Gold price staged an impressive comeback on Wednesday and reversed 75% of Tuesday's sell-off, mainly helped by a sharp pullback in the US Treasury yields across the curve.

Discouraging US housing data also added to the greenback’s misery, as investors started to rethink the Fed’s rate hike expectations. The negative sentiment around Wall Street indices also helped the recovery in gold price.

This Thursday, gold price is holding onto the recent advance, biding time before initiating the next upswing. The weakness in the US dollar alongside the yields continues to underpin gold price. The risk-off trading in the Asian equities amid looming China’s property sector concerns and global inflation risks continue to boost’s gold appeal as a safe-haven as well as an inflation hedge.

The Fed speculation and inflation concerns will continue to play out, influencing the dynamics in the yields and gold price. Data-wise, the US weekly Jobless Claims will draw some attention amid a sparse docket and a slew of Fed speak.

Gold price is likely to trade in a familiar range between $1,845 and $1,866/1872 in the day, until the bulls find a strong foothold above the June 14 tops of $1,878 resulting in a rally to $1888/1907 price zone.

On the reversal side, a breach below 1832 can trigger the price to 1818/1777 zone once again.

BULL CROSS

The 100-Daily Moving Average (DMA) has pierced through the 200-DMA from below, representing a bull cross, adding credence to the bullish outlook on gold price.

YIELDS

Worries over the global economic recovery resurfaced, as investors fretted over the implications of earlier than previously thought monetary policy tightening to tackle the rearing inflation beast. The dour market mood ramped up the safe-haven flows into gold and the US Treasuries, weighing heavily on the yields.

Join TELEGRAM channel for latest updates and market analysis:
Copy this url and paste in browser: https://bit.ly/AnalysisbyPR

AS ALERTED IN ADVANCE ON 14.11.2021

HISTORY REPEATED: BTC CRASHED AFTER 14 NOVEMEBER.

Join TELEGRAM channel for latest updates and market analysis:
Copy this url and paste in browser: https://bit.ly/AnalysisbyPR

Heavy volatility expected: 1888 zone ahead.

1866-1888 breach will result in 1907 which
right now might look impossible.

A reversal scenario: $1866-1845

Maintain price gaps.
Enter near SR zones only.
Avoid repeated trades. Implement Golden Ratio.

I will trade on small lots today as I am not sure about direction.
Once Gold enters a specific zone, only after that I will trade.

Avoid Gambling.
Safeguard Principle.

All the best! Join TELEGRAM channel for latest updates and market analysis: Copy this url and paste in browser: https://bit.ly/AnalysisbyPR

Join TELEGRAM channel for latest updates and market analysis:

Copy this url and paste in browser: https://bit.ly/AnalysisbyPR

As published in Analysis.

Crash from 1796 to 1777 and 1758 achieved. RT achieved 23.6% on M30 chart | 38.2% on M15 | M15 SMA further | 50% RT achieved on M5.

Read my Analysis on GOLD published at 13.29 hours today:

https://bit.ly/Gold1818or1756

TARGET 1 and 2 achieved | GOLD | 03.11.2021 | Alert generated at 04.00 hours | Set: 323

Email at info@piyushratnu.com for more details, Analysis and LIVE Feed

CMP 1763

Today Gold price achieved D1 SMA 50 (1778) after crashing from H4 SMA 50. 1756/1721 and 1808-1818/1832 levels are the next major Support and Resistance zone. Tapering related statements can push gold up or down $45-90. All three major equity indexes in the US hit new record highs on Tuesday, and GOLD once again made a failed attempt to achieve $1800 mark and crashed back from $1796 Resistance zone to $1778 Support zone today morning.

The FOMC meeting for November began yesterday and will conclude today. Most importantly, it will be the statement and following press conference by Chairman Powell that will draw the most attention. The statement will contain information about when the Federal Reserve will begin tapering their $120 billion monthly asset purchases. The press conference will clarify any ambiguities found within the statement itself.

It is highly believed that the Fed will announce the onset of tapering tomorrow. They have already defined that tapering will reduce asset purchases by $15 billion each month. The reduction will be composed of $10 billion of U.S. bonds and $5 billion of MBS. Since the Federal Reserve has been buying $80 billion each month of U.S. debt instruments, it will take a total of eight months to complete the tapering process.

That means that if they begin tapering in November, they will not complete the tapering process until June 2022. It is also important to note that they will not begin lift-off until they have completed tapering.

Worried foreign central banks boost gold reserves
After sitting on the side-lines for much of last year, central bank appetite for gold has resumed, in part due to inflationary pressures globally along with disruptions in the energy market.

Russia recently reached a milestone record for its gold reserves, now ranking fifth in the world for the size of its holdings. Russia now holds well over 20% of its reserves in gold! This represents nearly 2,300 tons of gold now held by the totalitarian nation, and that figure is likely to increase substantially in the years ahead.

Meanwhile, the central banks of Serbia, Hungary, Thailand, France, and Germany have added gold to their reserves in recent months. Brazil even bought 41.8 tons recently.

The heavy gold accumulation by central banks points to an ongoing shift away from the Federal Reserve Note “dollar” as the global reserve currency of choice and points to the ongoing shift in global economic dynamics.

The decline and fall of the U.S. dollar as a world reserve currency could mark a key turning point in financial history. Fiat currencies and the debt instruments denominated in them may fall in tandem. Investments in precious metals stand to rise.

Today is FED interest rate announcement and FOMC. In addition, this Friday NFP and Unemployment rate will be published, which brings another huge volatility in Gold price. This week is crucial and retail traders might lose their principle amount if they are stuck in wrong direction.

Analysing Relevant Data plays a crucial role in decision making during such highly volatile economic events:
Observe Resistance & Support zones
Observe Fibonacci Retracement zones
Observe Session shifts
Observe Dollar Index
Observe US10YT – US 10 Year Yield
Observe XAUXAG Ratio
Observe USDJPY price
Observe Yen strength
Observe US Dollar strength
Observe COT on Spot GOLD
Gold council report regarding Supply and Demand stats of Gold
Observe Chairman Powell’s statement
Observe US Monetary Policy
The next big day for the high volatility action in GOLD will be NFP Day:
NFP on 05 November, 2021
Participation rate on 05 November, 2021
Unemployment rate on 05 November, 2021

Resistance zone:

1789 | 1796 (1796 zone) | 1802 - 1806 (1808 zone) | 1812 (1818 zone)

Support zone:

1786 – 1779 - 1773 (1777 zone) | 1769 - 1763

As per past data:
Resistance zone:

1808/1818/1832/1866/1888

Support zone:

1777/1735/1717/1685

SOC Parameters:

H1 Over Sold

H4 Over Sold

D1 at 45.0

RISE above 1796: 23.6% FIB level + H4 SMA zone + Resistance 2: a strong zone of retracement before the further rise to 1808-1818 price levels.

CRASH till 1750: 1763 Last support level + 61.8% at 1756: a strong zone of retracement before the further crash to 1721 – 1717 price levels.

SMA 50 Levels:
M30: $ 1787.00

H1: $ 1788.78

H4: $1793.65

D1: $ 1780.45

All the above data needs to be observed carefully to derive co-relation and trace the further movement of Gold in this and next week. The first and second week in November has always proved itself as a choppy week. Last year too due to elections, Gold crashed in first and second week more than $100.

This week is unique in it’s own way since FED interest rate day, FOMC and NFP – all three economic events of utmost importance are scheduled this week. The only certainty about today's FOMC conclusion is that we will see increased volatility as market participants attempt to read between the lines of the Federal Reserve statement and chairman Powell's press conference.

I wish you ALL THE BEST for today!

WARNING: Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Piyush Ratnu does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. The author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. The author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. The author is not a registered investment advisor and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

02.11.2021

GOLD back to 1796 R zone. after struggling at 1777 S zone.

Subscribe to our LIVE analysis, trading feed and trading tools for better accuracy.

Email at info@piyushratnu.com for more details.

HIGH Frequency Trading | 1.0 lot each | Speed: 2 trades per second | Trading Accuracy: 90%

#PiyushRatnu | XAUUSD | GOLD | Analysis | Dubai | Email for live feed at info@piyushratnu.com

Trading accuracy: 90% achieved | 11.40 AM

GOLD EURUSD EURCAD

#PiyushRatnu #Forex #Bullion #Gold #Analysis

I will be waiting for GOLD price to crash the support LEVELS, I see a good BUYING opportunity after the crash, ADP, Initial Jobless Claims and NFP data will add high volatility, and a sudden crash of $25/50/75 is what I am expecting, with 23.6/38.2 recovery by Tuesday. However I never believe in holding my trades on Friday late eve, hence I will exit in Net Average Profit Price (NAP) as per the lows achieved by GOLD after this data release. If GOLD prices rise, against my expectation I will wait for the Resistance Levels: 1777/1796/1808-1818 before taking major SELL entries. As they say, no one is perfect, market can go against our analysis, however a real trader is the one who is ready for the worst while saving principle amount, always.

Gold and silver prices are down in midday U.S. trading Tuesday, amid solid rebounds in the U.S. stock indexes after they saw selling pressure Monday. A firmer U.S. dollar index and rising U.S. Treasury yields today are also negatives for the metals markets. December gold futures were last down $8.60 at $1,759.00. December Comex silver was last down $0.059 at $22.585 an ounce.

Despite today's gains in the U.S. stock indexes, there are still some risk-off attitudes in the marketplace. Another Chinese property firm, Fantasia Group Holdings, missed a debt payment this week. Fantasia is not as big as the troubled Evergrande property firm, but there are growing concerns about a contagion effect in the financial markets. There are lingering worries about supply-chain bottlenecks that have many businesses unable to obtain their products in a timely fashion. That matter and rapidly rising energy prices have helped to stoke price inflation fears and even notions of a return of "stagflation" that gripped world economies in the early 1980s. These elements are likely to at least limit the downside in safe-haven gold and silver in the near term.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly up and not far below last week's 12-month high. Nymex crude oil futures are up and hit a nearly seven-year high of $79.48 a barrel today. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.524%.

Technically, December gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A four-week-old price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,800.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,700.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $1,771.50 and then at $1,775.00. First support is seen at this week's low of $1,747.70 and then at $1,737.50.

Stocks set to open lower, streamers vs legacy channels in focus after Emmys

U.S. stocks are set to open sharply lower later, as Chinese and central bank risks prompt investors to take money off the table after a strong year-to-date.

By 6:15 AM ET (1015 GMT), Dow Jones futures were down 547 points, or 1.6%, while S&P 500 futures were down 1.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1.0%.

Additional risks lurking include the suspension of federal government agencies due to the ongoing dispute over the debt ceiling, although analysts note that this argument remains – as usual – largely in the realm of political theater.

Stocks likely to be in focus later include Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), AT&T (NYSE:T) and Disney, after the first of those three trounced the other two at this year’s Emmy Awards.

After AUGUST,

September is the cruelest month, and it's playing out that way once again, with rolling corrections all over the place, something that is, again, typically a precursor to the seasonal decline that begins in just a couple of days.

STAY ALERT.

The Federal Reserve is likely to announce its tapering plans, starting by the end of this year, at its September 21-22 monetary policy meeting. The Bank of England may also hint at tapering, given the rising inflation in the UK. A potential withdrawal in the monetary policy stimulus will continue to bode ill for gold.

A failure to defend the monthly lows of $1742, a fresh leg down could initiate towards the $1700 psychological magnate. Alternatively, the pattern support now resistance at $1753 could challenge gold’s road to recovery.

After Thursday’s $50 slide, gold price looked to stabilize on Friday, although held on to multi-week lows near $1750. Sellers took a breather after the previous decline, which was mainly seen as a chart-based sell-off after gold price failed to resist above the $1800 barrier. The slide also ensued after the US Retail Sales surprised to the upside in August, showing signs of strengthening economy and reinforced Fed’s tapering bets. On Friday, gold price attempted a bounce but lacked conviction amid a broadly firmer US dollar. The troubled Chinese property developer giant Evergrande’s potential default story dented the investors’ sentiment and lifted the dollar’s safe-haven appeal while rising Treasury yields on tapering bets also aided the greenback, limiting gold’s upside attempts.

Heading into a big week, with the Bank of England and the Fed central bank meetings in focus, gold price resumes last week’s downtrend and refreshes monthly lows near $1740 amid Fed’s tapering speculations and as risks surrounding Evergrande build up. The US dollar index holds at monthly tops, as the Fed is likely to announce its tapering plans, starting by the end of this year, at its September 21-22 monetary policy meeting. The BOE may also hint at tapering, given the rising inflation in the UK. A potential withdrawal in the monetary policy stimulus will continue to bode ill for gold price. Later in the day, the dynamics in the US dollar and the broader market sentiment will continue to have a significant bearing on gold trades, as the economic calendar appears scarce.

As observed on the four-hour chart, gold price has confirmed a bear pennant pattern, considering the recent consolidation that followed the previous week’s slide.

Gold price closed the four-hourly candlestick below the rising trendline support at $1752, charting out the bearish continuation formation.

The death cross validated on the same time frame on Friday, adds credence to the potential downside.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding in the oversold territory, suggesting a bounce could be in the offing. However, given the bearish technical setup, any recovery attempt could be seen as a good selling opportunity.

A failure to defend the monthly lows of $1742, a fresh leg down could initiate towards the $1700 psychological magnate.

Alternatively, the pattern support now resistance at $1753 could challenge gold’s road to recovery.

Further up, the pattern resistance at $1759 could be the next relevant upside target. A sustained move above the latter could expose the bearish 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1771 (1777 zone).

All in all, the path of least resistance for the gold price appears to the downside.

The question remains the same:
CRASHING GOLD: A Buying Opportunity or One should wait till this Year's NEW low?

Evergrande collapse could have a ‘domino effect’ on China’s property sector

A spillover of the crisis at China Evergrande Group into other parts of the economy could become a systemic problem, a sizable number of developers in the offshore dollar market appear to be “highly distressed” and may not survive much longer if the refinancing channel remains shut for a prolonged period.

China’s “highly distressed” real estate companies are at risk of collapse as the country’s highly indebted developer Evergrande is on the brink of default. Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property developer, is crumbling under the weight of more than $300 billion of debt and warned more than once it could default. Banks have reportedly declined to extend new loans to buyers of uncompleted Evergrande residential projects, while ratings agencies have repeatedly downgraded the firm, citing its liquidity crunch.

The financial position of the other Chinese property developers also took a hit following rules outlined by the Chinese government to rein in borrowing costs of the real estate firms. The measures included placing a cap on debt in relation to a company’s cash flows, assets and capital levels.

Evergrande bosses face ‘severe punishment’ after securing early redemptions

Six senior Evergrande executives face “severe punishment” for securing early redemptions on investment products that the indebted Chinese property group subsequently told retail investors it could not repay on time, the company has said.

The admission comes ahead of a critical fortnight for the developer, which is struggling to repay investors, banks and bondholders, as well as complete flats for homebuyers who paid for their new properties in advance.

Hong Kong-listed shares in Evergrande fell as much as 18.9 per cent on Monday, while broader concerns about the health of China’s real estate sector triggered a wider sell-off.

Last week hundreds of retail investors protested at Evergrande’s headquarters in the southern city of Shenzhen, after executives said they needed more time to pay the interest and principal on high-yielding wealth management products issued by the group. They were joined by suppliers who said they had also not been paid.

Du Liang, a senior company executive, told investors that Evergrande had used at least Rmb40bn ($6.2bn) from wealth management sales to fund construction projects across the country, according to people who participated in settlement negotiations. In addition to the money Evergrande has borrowed from 80,000 retail investors, the group owes other creditors and suppliers an estimated $300bn.

In a statement at the weekend, Evergrande said that as of May 1 more than 40 group executives had purchased its investment products. Six of them, who had secured early redemptions of their investments, will return the money.

“All funds redeemed by the managers must be returned and severe penalties will be imposed,” said the company, which has also offered to repay investors with discounted flats and parking lots.

It is common for the owners and employees of heavily indebted Chinese companies to buy such products to help fund operations. Ding Yumei, wife of Evergrande founder and chair Hui Ka Yan, paid Rmb20m for group investment products in July.

Evergrande’s attempts to calm investor anger highlight the many challenges its debt crisis poses for the Chinese government, which is reluctant to bail out the company even though its collapse could have wide-ranging consequences.

Some Evergrande bonds have recently traded as low as 20 cents on the dollar, while yields on other Chinese property groups’ debt have risen sharply.


The value of Evergrande’s Hong Kong-traded shares have fallen almost 90 per cent over the past year.

The Chinese government recently organised a bailout of Huarong, a heavily indebted state-owned asset manager, by other government-controlled asset managers and banks. But it is reluctant to do the same for a large private-sector company such as Evergrande.

IMPACT: STRONGER DOLLAR. Volatility in GOLD | Panic based SELLING in Equities