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Dragan Opacic
Dragan Opacic
eurusd
buy
TP 1.1848
Dragan Opacic
Dragan Opacic
eurusd BUY 1.1670
TP 1.1840
SL 1.1638
Dragan Opacic
Dragan Opacic
4-hour
On intraday charts we're mostly interested with this sideways consolidation. This is the key to further action. Market should not break it down if it gravitates to upside continuation. Trend has changed bullish here already. Also we can recognize bullish dynamic pressure here.

On Thursday market indeed has dropped below 1.1370 area, thus we haven't got any upside continuation last week. But Friday action has changed overall situation. Currently price action will be held by Weekly Pivot levels that envelope current consolidation. Upside breakout and moving above WPR1 will be another bullish sign here.

So guys, taking in consideration all the stuff that we've discussed here, it seems that market should continue upside action. EUR could reach at least 1.1550-1.16 area on coming week.
Dragan Opacic
Dragan Opacic
This chart does not have any bright pattern or setup. Still, it is very important for short-term analysis. Here we still work with our initial AB-CD pattern. EUR has passed through all other targets except the last one - 1.618.

Here we have multiple bullish signs. Trend is bullish. After upside breakout of 1.1360 area market has not returned back and has not dropped significantly but holds around broken top and forming consolidation aka bullish flag.

EUR also stands above MPP and on a half way to MPR1. Finally on Friday we've got bullish grabber inside the flag that suggests upside continuation. If market will do this - hardly it will stop just on minimal grabber target. This probably will mean real upside continuation.

What we could say about 1.1580-1.1615 area? This is AB-CD 1.618 target, MPR1 and 1.27 extension of most recent retracement down. Previously we treated it as butterfly, but this doesn't matter how to treat it, it just gives another destination point around the same 1.16 area. The major meaning of this area stands on weekly chart - this is neckline, red line for Double Bottom pattern and depending on what will happen around it withing nearest couple of weeks could bring clarity on further perspective.

Currently we have advantage with understanding of ongoing fundamental processes and that lets us mostly expect upside breakout.
Dragan Opacic
Dragan Opacic
Weekly
This chart represents opposite picture. Once we've discussed this pattern that mostly is based on 1.08 downward breakout. Although currently phantom chances still remain on this butterfly, since price still stands below 1.1850 top, but these chances significantly decreased as market has turned to upside action again. Also we should treat this picture through the light of recent Fundamental comments. It means that hardly this pattern will work and we mostly should think about further upside action. As you can see market has stopped upward action not just occasionally, but due reaching of 1.14 long-term resistance area.

Another pattern that you could recognize here is Double Bottom with neckline around 1.1550-1.1580. Theoretical target of DB is around 1.25 (also agrees with 1.24 fundamental conclusion). Most interesting thing is what will happen around neckline, since here we have weekly overbought, MPR1. This area we will use as potential target of next week and major indicator of bullish breakout.

Last week was almost inside one, but right now EUR should not show very deep retracement, because market stands on upside extension phase and major retracement already has been done.
Dragan Opacic
Dragan Opacic
1-hour
On hourly chart market stands in upside channel, here we could see clear signs of thrust. On a way up market already has completed AB-CD 1.618 ultimate target, but after retracement down market returned back to upside action, although bearish market should reverse down and drop further. It makes us think that we could get some kind of butterfly pattern that could trigger upside breakout.

On a way down market should not show too deep retracement - move to WPP and 1233 Fib level will be OK. But to keep upside perspectives gold should hold inside the channel.
Dragan Opacic
Dragan Opacic
4-hour
So, this chart we already saw previously, it shows how gold has betrayed 3-Drive and turned up earlier. Although theoretically as 3-Drive as butterfly are still valid, but this mostly theoretically only. Large part of work to their failure already has been done - market has broken trend line and stands few cents below invalidation point.

And take a look - on Friday we've got bullish grabber that suggests action above invalidation point. It means that as soon as this will happen - next target will be 1260 area.
Dragan Opacic
Dragan Opacic
On daily chart situation barely has changed. Actually, Friday was an inside session. On Thu market has formed bearish grabber that theoretically suggests return back down below lows, but I'm afraid that grabber has more chances to fail rather than to work.

At first glance on daily chart picture has not changed - the same shape of possible H&S pattern. But major problem with early upward reversal. Neckline stands steep and right slope of the head has not been finished correctly. On 4-hour chart 3-Drive has not been completed, although it's completion should happen and could be logical finish of the head. But suddenly gold has turned north.

It means that current upward action is not simple and logical development of H&S, but in reality it could happen so, that current upward action does not belong to H&S pattern already. And although we do not see it clearly yet, but it might happen that H&S already has failed...So, we still keep it's shape here, but at the same time our major level to watch is the top of right shoulder. Current action significantly increase chances that shoulder will fail and market will continue move higher.
Dragan Opacic
Dragan Opacic
Weekly
So within past week we have appealed to weekly levels many times, finally major resistance has been hit. We not occasionally have said that the ceil now is 1285 area - Fib level and overbought on weekly chart. Currently gold market totally matches our expectations - retracement down has started precisely from predefined level.

Gold has formed something like bearish Stretch pattern on weekly chart, but mostly it is completed already since market has reached the middle between OB and OS bands. Reversal was prepared by forming butterfly "Sell" on daily time frame.

We suggest minimum weekly destination point is 1180-1200 area. As you can see it includes trend line support, Yearly Pivot and major 3/8 support level. MPS1 also stands close. Although at first glance it seems that 1180 area is too deep, in fact this is just 30% retracement. Trend holds bullish on weekly chart.

That's being said re-testing of long-term broken trend line is very typical for gold market. Besides this will be test for bullishness. Real bullish market should hold as above broken line as above MPS1, despite existed YPP and Fib level.

Currently guys, we still have one question here - whether recent upward action is continuation of upside trend, or just temporal bounce, and we will see some kind of AB=CD action to 1193 level still. Unfortunately we haven't got bullish grabber here that could clarify this.

Question appears mostly because upside reversal has happened unexpectedly. Here, as you can see, gold has not reached our major level where this should happen. I mean 1193, MPS1 and trendline. Reversal has happened earlier. That's why chances that gold still will reach this support exist. Absolute clarity we will get only around 1260 area probably, when market either will turn down again or continue upward action.
Dragan Opacic
Dragan Opacic
4-hour
Well, here market has not quite reached 1.0 AB-CD extension for few pips. Thus, meaningful retracement hardly will happen, until market will touched 1.1450 area.

Then most important will be the depth of retracement. It will be perfect if retracement down will hold above WPP and broken daily top. This will keep short-term bullish sentiment and chances on continuation to 1.1530 area.
Dragan Opacic
Dragan Opacic
Daily

Trend is bullish on daily time-frame. As market has moved above recent top and completed daily bullish grabber target, we could return back to discussion of our AB-CD pattern. Next 1.618 target stands at ~ 1.1625.

Still, this point is above overbought and next week we will deal mostly with 1.1530 target. This is 1.27 butterfly extension, daily overbought and Monthly PP.

As we've said - reaction on NFP data will be muted, if even it will be positive. Precisely this has happened. Despite positive numbers, wage growth etc, EUR was able to hold above broken top. As a result on Friday we've got high wave pattern that mostly indicates indecision. In short term perspective it will be important what extreme point of high wave will be taken out.
Dragan Opacic
Dragan Opacic
Weekly
This chart represents opposite picture. Once we've discussed this pattern that mostly is based on 1.08 downward breakout. Although currently phantom chances still remain on this butterfly, since price still stands below 1.1850 top, but these chances significantly decreased as market has turned to upside action again.

Another pattern that you could recognize here is Double Bottom with neckline around 1.1550-1.1580. Theoretical target of DB is around 1.25. Most interesting thing is what will happen around neckline, since here we have weekly overbought, MPR1. This area we will use as potential target of next week.

Still, situation will not be clarified absolutely until market will not break 1.18-1.19 area. If this will happen - this will open large bullish perspectives on EUR, while standing in 1.05-1.16 range will keep uncertainty. As longer market will fluctuate inside this range as weaker chances will be on upside breakout.
Dragan Opacic
Dragan Opacic
4-hour
To better understand what really could happen - whether market indeed will form H&S or not, next week we will monitor this 3-Drive "Buy" pattern:
This pattern looks absolutely perfect. It is interesting that it's reversal point coincides with 1193 weekly level, daily oversold and MPS1. That's being said, if market will reach this area - 3d Drive point, this will mean that H&S is still possible and gold should start to form right shoulder and we should get upside retracement at least to 1250 area.
Conversely, if market will hold here, turn up and move above MPP, i.e. break current trend line - this will mean, in turn, that retracement has big chances to finish right here and right now.
Dragan Opacic
Dragan Opacic
Daily
Here guys, I just have drawn scenario that we're watching right now. Although to be honest, currently market mostly brings questions rather than answers, especially in the light of recent Fed tricks.

It means that shape of this pattern could change. Thus, market could stop retracement earlier and turn to, say, triangle pattern to make upward continuation faster. Currently it is very difficult to predict how definitely gold will answer on Fed statement and recent NFP data. As you can see on Friday drop down has stopped suddenly and gold has not dropped significantly despite nice NFP numbers. Now all eyes will be on April Fed meeting.

Besides, retracement could finish sooner, since we're closer to Brexit voting in June, so tension gradually will grow. Seasonal bearish trend right now also turns to most passive stage and will finish in August. That's being said - there is chance that market just re-test weekly trend line around 1190 area and turn up again, without any H&S patterns that we have here. Our task will be to recognize these chances...
Dragan Opacic
Dragan Opacic
Weekly
So within past week we have appealed to weekly levels many times, finally major resistance has been hit. We not occasionally have said that the ceil for last week is 1285 area - Fib level and overbought on weekly chart. Currently gold market totally matches our expectations - retracement down has started precisely from predefined level.

Gold has formed something like bearish Stretch pattern on weekly chart, but mostly it is completed already since market has reached the middle between OB and OS bands. Reversal was prepared by forming butterfly "Sell" on daily time frame.

We suggest minimum weekly destination point is 1180-1200 area. As you can see it includes trend line support, Yearly Pivot and major 3/8 support level. MPS1 also stands close. Although at first glance it seems that 1180 area is too deep, in fact this is just 30% retracement. Trend holds bullish on weekly chart.

That's being said re-testing of long-term broken trend line is very typical for gold market. Besides this will be test for bullishness. Real bullish market should hold as above broken line as above MPS1, despite existed YPP and Fib level.
Dragan Opacic
Dragan Opacic
Currently, as you can see market has jumped out from 1106-1110 area, as we've expected. This was and is K-support area and former tops. Besides this is sufficient retracement to show respect daily 1.27 butterfly target.
Also take a look - market has broken the wedge to upside. That's being said, if you have taken long there - now it is time to move stops to breakeven.

Although, there are no many reasons to this, but we can't totally exclude possible 2-leg retracement down to 1102 area. Mostly because we have untouched Monthly Pivot. This retracement in general will be acceptable and will not be too deep. That' why, if you still have no bullish position here but want to take it - do not hurry. It would be better either to wait for this drop to MPP or to way upside breakout of 1125 area.

As we know, next short-term target is 1145 level.
We think that fundamentally gold stands somewhere near bottom. But this bottom could be "extended", because the scale of this analysis is long-term. It means that market could drop lower, say to 1000$ , but pace of drop will be significantly slower, or will turn to some wide range fluctuations.

In short-term perspective market behaves perfect, as bullish market should. And keeps chances on upside continuation. Next short-term destination point is 1145 area - daily butterfly target, Fib resistance and MPR1.
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