Daniel Schwoerer / Perfil

"Inflation peaked. But it is not the last peak of this cycle. We are likely to see CPI lower, possibly negative in 2H 2023, and the US in recession by any definition. Fed will cut and government will stimulate. And we will have another inflation spike. It's not hard," Burry said.

In den letzten drei Monaten hat der japanische Yen an Wert gewonnen. Dieser Anstieg war jedoch hauptsächlich eine Korrektur zu einem längerfristigen Abwärtstrend und wurde durch Veränderungen im Zinsniveau anderer Währungen beeinflusst. Ein wichtiger Faktor, der den Wert des Yen beeinflusst, ist die Rolle des Yen als "Finanzierungswährung" in Carry-Trades. Carry-Trades sind Strategien, bei denen Anleger eine niedrigverzinsliche Währung verkaufen und eine höherverzinsliche Währung kaufen, um von den Zinsunterschieden zu profitieren.
In den letzten Monaten hatte jedoch die Volatilität des Wechselkurses zwischen dem Yen und anderen Währungen dazu geführt, dass die erwarteten Erträge aus Carry-Trades gesunken sind. Auch die jüngste Haltung der Bank of Japan hat dazu beigetragen, dass die Erwartungen an zukünftige Zinserhöhungen abgenommen haben, was ebenfalls Auswirkungen auf die Carry-Trades hatte.

Just to showcase... 3504%

I believe that we will go much lower, as the optimism is delusional, given the underlying facts and global developments. Interest rates might go as high as 7.5% and not only in the US. The FED for sure will not pause hiking as they have effective tools in case of overtightening, but will not miss the chance to fight inflation. This has been made very clear. I am quite astonished, how given realities are turned into positive outlooks of soft landings and bull markets. I guess that's what is called behavioral science of denial.

just to remember...

Prediction: Elon will introduce Cryptopayments in Twitter and create a new global payment system.

Just for the Books: Rates will peak at least at 7.5%

Swiss Franc Long Eur Short

On Monday we expect a short pull back of USD strenght before continued uptrend and according movement in EUR and XAU

Blunt n Straight Forward

.:..:..:.

I feel its time for a bang.... watch out be cautious !!!

Our recommendation from the 13 of January in regard of the Swiss National Banks action was correct:

Change your Euros in CHF just for the case that the SNB decides a shift in policy of binding the CHF to the Euro. Should they go on with the present policy the CHF will move alongside with the Euro, should they stop, enjoy the rocket ride.

https://plus.google.com/103122349808543019040/posts/Kkmd4sqs5hd

Gold Prices Consolidation Forming Bearish Continuation Pattern

Gold prices have been stuck in neutral since early April as it consolidates near 1300. The GLD ETF fell below 124 in early April and bouncing off the 50-62% retracement few times. A lower high formed in early May and a descending triangle could be taking shape now. This is a bearish continuation pattern and a break below the April lows would signal a continuation of the March decline.
The May highs mark a resistance zone in the 126-127 area.

A break above this zone is needed to negate the descending triangle and turn bullish on bullion. Gold needs to break 1320 to get some upside traction.

The 50-day moving average on the GLD is poised to close below the 200-day moving average, which is referred to as the death cross. When this occurs, a long term trend is considered in place and gold prices will likely continue to trend lower.

The Bollinger band width, which is calculated by subtracting the Bollinger band high (two standard deviations above the 20-day moving average) from the Bollinger band low (two standard deviations below the 20-day moving average). The end product is a representation of historical volatility as it shows that net standard deviation of the GLD time series. The low levels of historical volatility reflect the current consolidation in gold prices and reflects that prices could quickly jump with a new catalyst.

The Silver ETF (SLV) fell back to the December-January lows at the end of April and then moved into a tight consolidation. The Bollinger band width indicator has been below 5% for most of the last five weeks. Even though this volatility contraction is occurring near support, the trend since late February is clearly down. A move above this level would exceed the upper band and break the late April high. Such a breakout would suggest a successful support test and reverse the 12-week downtrend.

http://www.finances.com/analyses-and-opinions/analysis-opinions/5871-gold-prices-consolidation-forming-bearish-continuation-pattern.htm#

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WE WISH YOU A MERRY X-MAS AND A HAPPY NEW YEAR

Trading will be paused from 20.12.2013 until 06.01.2014