CANDLEHEDGE Ger40

CandleHedge GER40 — Algorithmic Trading System for Germany 40 (GER40)

Not a signal. A complete trading system. 

CandleHedge is an Expert Advisor for the Germany 40 (GER40 / DAX 40) on the M15 timeframe. The system is built on a dual recovery architecture with Bayesian regime classification. Live track record verified on a real-money account. Methodology calibrated across more than 1,700 cycles spanning January 2020 to February 2026.

CandleHedge is not for everyone. It is for the trader who demands to understand the system they are running.

Methodology

• HyperMatrix decision layer. A 20 × 5 lookup table assigns risk geometry to every combination of hour-of-day and market regime. Parameters calibrated through systematic optimisation on six years of GER40 data.
• Regime classifier. Five market states — Settled Mean-Revert, Weak Mean-Revert, Random, Moderate Trend, Strong Trend — computed from variance ratio, signal-to-noise.
• Dual recovery architecture. When a cycle moves against its initial direction, up to three protection layers engage progressively. The architecture provides structural risk containment without fixed stop-losses.
• Bayesian lot sizing (LMSR). Fixed micro-lots scaled by signal confidence. No exponential position growth. No martingale.
• Adaptive Layer Management. Protection geometry recalibrates to live market conditions across the cycle lifecycle.

Configuration

• Instrument: Germany 40 / GER40 / DAX 40. Additional instruments in research.
• Timeframe: M15.
• Recommended minimum deposit for full mirror: same as equity - 1000 USD.
• Min lot size by broker: 0.001. 
• Concurrent orders: Two hedge legs per cycle, up to three protection layers.
• VPS continuous trading 24/5 execution.

Subscription notes

CandleHedge cycles consist of pending orders that wait for market triggers and open positions that are actively managed. Subscribers may subscribe at any moment:

• Pending orders mirror identically. When triggered, subscriber and signal source fill at the same price.
• Open positions mirror at current market price. If the signal source is in an adverse phase, the subscriber enters at a price closer to current market — typically resulting in slightly less drawdown exposure than the signal source on the in-progress cycle.
• Realised profits from prior partial closures stay with the signal source. A subscriber joining mid-cycle may collect less total profit than the signal source on that specific cycle.

From the moment of subscription, every new trade is replicated and all subsequent cycles open identically on both accounts.

Risk profile

• Fixed micro-lot sizing keeps leverage exposure modest at all times.
• Drawdown is contained through structural hedge mechanics rather than fixed stop-losses.
• Cycles may persist from intraday up to several weeks during adverse regimes before resolution. Subscribers must accept variable cycle duration as a property of the system, not an exception.
• Adequate deposit headroom matters more than subscription timing. The recommended minimum is calibrated for full  cycle survival.
• Realised results will differ from the provider's account due to slippage, spread, broker conditions, and account leverage.

Intended subscriber profile

• Algorithmic-trading or quantitative background. The system rewards traders who understand hedge mechanics.
• Capable of tolerating cycles that may stay open from hours to several weeks during adverse market regimes.
• Operates on a stable VPS with a broker offering competitive GER40 execution.
• Funded at or above the recommended minimum deposit.

Important notice

Past performance does not guarantee future results. CFD trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Only commit capital you can afford to lose. The signal subscriber assumes full responsibility for trading outcomes.