• Overview
  • Reviews (1)
  • Comments (2)
  • What's new

Helping Honest Predictor

The Helping Honest Predictor (HHP) script was created to assist the user in finding the best values for the input parameters of the Honest Predictor Indicator (iHP) for most profitable Binary Option trading.

Once the desired range is given by the user for the values of one of the most relevant iHP parameters, namely the positions Expiry Time, HHP "scans" this range and finds out the maximum backtesting accuracy of the indicator (provided the requested reliability level is fulfilled) and for which values it is achieved (what is usually called optimization).

WARNING: only version 1.8 of iHP (1.9 for the iHP free version) is successfully and consistently optimized by the current ver. 1.1 of the script. Forthcoming versions will include later iHP versions, in turn. Always read "What's new" section for version-related information.


Script Usage

Choose a chart with a given asset and timeframe and execute HHP onto it.

The Input parameters window appears (Screenshot #1) with the following entries:

  • Duration of backtesting in days: set 0 to let the script try various iHP backtesting duration, otherwise insert a specific duration.
  • Minimum Expiry Time in bars: the minimum expiry time from which the script starts scanning the iHP response.
  • Maximum Expiry Time in bars: the maximum expiry time considered by the script.
  • Minimum Accuracy: the value of the iHP backtesting accuracy below which the iHP output will be ignored by the script.
  • Requested Reliability Level: signals for which the iHP statistical reliability is worse than this level will be discarded.

By clicking "OK" the script starts and executes iHP many times by varying the Expiry Time from the minimum to the maximum value, with a step of 1 bar. Moreover, the indicator Threshold parameter is also "looped" within the widest possible range (i.e. from 0 to 10, with a step of 0.2). If Duration of backtesting is set to 0 then various duration (from 1 to 30 days, depending on timeframe) will be automatically examined for the backtesting, too. The “backtesting” is the "historical period" examined by iHP to analyse internally its predictions from a statistical point of view. See the indicator description and the comment posted on April, 28th, 2015.

During the script run, a "wait" comment appears. See the example illustrated in the Screenshot #2, where we chose EURUSD with M30 candles.

At the end (it may take up to a few tens of seconds, depending on parameters ranges), if the script doesn't manage to find an accuracy higher than the Minimum Accuracy, a comment will inform you about that (Screenshot #3). In this example we decided to change the symbol to USDJPY (candles H1) and restarted again the script. In this case HHP successes to find a 100% of maximum accuracy, as it writes in a comment along with the values that lead to this result (see Screenshot #4).

At this point, you should just attach on the same chart the iHP indicator downloaded from https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/8700 (or from https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/9100 for the FREE version), giving it the input parameters as suggested by the script (Screenshot #4). Then, the indicator will immediately report the same accuracy found by HHP, as shown in the Screenshot #5.

See some other examples in the remaining Screenshots.

Notice that the automatic optimization procedure performed by HHP would be extremely tedious and would take a long time if performed “by hand” by a user.

Please, be aware that the accuracy found refers to backtesting (i.e., to the statistical analysis performed on historical data). There is no warranty that this accuracy will be kept in the future positions, both because of statistical fluctuations and because of changes in market conditions.

In this respect, it is advisable to test the indicator with the found parameters, by means of the Testing Honest Predictor EA, to verify that the accuracy is at least confirmed going backwards in time. See the comment posted on May, 7th, 2015.

If the accuracy found by that EA in the Strategy Tester is much lower than the predicted one, then there is a high risk in executing the iHP positions. However, it could be also possible that the indicator is right, but the current asset price behavior is different from that showed before the beginning of backtesting.

Maksym Mudrakov
10497
2016.08.31 11:29 
 

User didn't leave any comment to the rating

Version 1.4 - 2015.06.30
It optimizes ver. 2.2 of Honest Predictor Indicator (paid, full version) in which the "trend prediction mode" (either REVERSAL or CONTINUATION) is a further parameter to optimize.

See "What's New" section of iHP product page for possible compatibility with later versions of the indicator.


Please, bear in mind that the backtesting accuracy can DROP quite rapidly on subsequent hours/days, especially if short duration (say less than 14 days) is used. To consider longer backtesting periods, I strongly recommend to do the optimization with "Testing Honest Predictor" EA.
Version 1.3 - 2015.06.17
It optimizes ver. 2.1 of Honest Predictor Indicator (paid, full version) in which further trend filters (as well as the Spread) are included.
See "What's New" section of iHP product page for possible compatibility with later versions of the indicator.

- Added "Spread" input parameter (in pips; negative: estimated from current Ask-Bid).

Please, bear in mind that the backtesting accuracy can DROP quite rapidly on subsequent hours/days, especially if short duration (say less than 14 days) is used. To consider longer backtesting periods, I strongly recommend to do the optimization with "Testing Honest Predictor" EA.
Version 1.2 - 2015.06.04
It optimizes ver. 1.9 of Honest Predictor Indicator (free ver. 2.0), in which time gaps (e.g. weekends) are excluded from backtesting.
See "What's New" section of iHP product page for possible compatibility with later versions of the indicator.

- Substantial improvements in execution speed and memory usage.

- Removed "Minimum Accuracy" parameter (now internally set to 50%).

- Added "Out-of-the-money" position payout parameter (in %).

- Added "In-the-money" position payout parameter (in %).

- Added "Maximize Profit instead of Accuracy" flag. If true, the optimization finds the maximum profit (in %) instead of accuracy. The profit depends on the two parameters above (that are broker-dependent) and it is calculated relative to the investment, which is assumed to be the same for all positions.

- The shortest backtesting duration has been removed from the automatic optimization in order to reduce statistical fluctuations.

Please, bear in mind that the backtesting accuracy can DROP quite rapidly on subsequent hours/days, especially if short duration (say less than 14 days) is used. Since for short timeframes (smaller than M30) not many bars are usually available, I strongly recommend to do the optimization with "Testing Honest Predictor" EA in these cases.