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Helping Honest Predictor

The Helping Honest Predictor (HHP) script was created to assist the user in finding the best values for the input parameters of the Honest Predictor Indicator (iHP) for most profitable Binary Option trading.

Once the desired range is given by the user for the values of one of the most relevant iHP parameters, namely the positions Expiry Time, HHP "scans" this range and finds out the maximum backtesting accuracy of the indicator (provided the requested reliability level is fulfilled) and for which values it is achieved (what is usually called optimization).

WARNING: only version 1.8 of iHP (1.9 for the iHP free version) is successfully and consistently optimized by the current ver. 1.1 of the script. Forthcoming versions will include later iHP versions, in turn. Always read "What's new" section for version-related information.


Script Usage

Choose a chart with a given asset and timeframe and execute HHP onto it.

The Input parameters window appears (Screenshot #1) with the following entries:

  • Duration of backtesting in days: set 0 to let the script try various iHP backtesting duration, otherwise insert a specific duration.
  • Minimum Expiry Time in bars: the minimum expiry time from which the script starts scanning the iHP response.
  • Maximum Expiry Time in bars: the maximum expiry time considered by the script.
  • Minimum Accuracy: the value of the iHP backtesting accuracy below which the iHP output will be ignored by the script.
  • Requested Reliability Level: signals for which the iHP statistical reliability is worse than this level will be discarded.

By clicking "OK" the script starts and executes iHP many times by varying the Expiry Time from the minimum to the maximum value, with a step of 1 bar. Moreover, the indicator Threshold parameter is also "looped" within the widest possible range (i.e. from 0 to 10, with a step of 0.2). If Duration of backtesting is set to 0 then various duration (from 1 to 30 days, depending on timeframe) will be automatically examined for the backtesting, too. The “backtesting” is the "historical period" examined by iHP to analyse internally its predictions from a statistical point of view. See the indicator description and the comment posted on April, 28th, 2015.

During the script run, a "wait" comment appears. See the example illustrated in the Screenshot #2, where we chose EURUSD with M30 candles.

At the end (it may take up to a few tens of seconds, depending on parameters ranges), if the script doesn't manage to find an accuracy higher than the Minimum Accuracy, a comment will inform you about that (Screenshot #3). In this example we decided to change the symbol to USDJPY (candles H1) and restarted again the script. In this case HHP successes to find a 100% of maximum accuracy, as it writes in a comment along with the values that lead to this result (see Screenshot #4).

At this point, you should just attach on the same chart the iHP indicator downloaded from https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/8700 (or from https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/9100 for the FREE version), giving it the input parameters as suggested by the script (Screenshot #4). Then, the indicator will immediately report the same accuracy found by HHP, as shown in the Screenshot #5.

See some other examples in the remaining Screenshots.

Notice that the automatic optimization procedure performed by HHP would be extremely tedious and would take a long time if performed “by hand” by a user.

Please, be aware that the accuracy found refers to backtesting (i.e., to the statistical analysis performed on historical data). There is no warranty that this accuracy will be kept in the future positions, both because of statistical fluctuations and because of changes in market conditions.

In this respect, it is advisable to test the indicator with the found parameters, by means of the Testing Honest Predictor EA, to verify that the accuracy is at least confirmed going backwards in time. See the comment posted on May, 7th, 2015.

If the accuracy found by that EA in the Strategy Tester is much lower than the predicted one, then there is a high risk in executing the iHP positions. However, it could be also possible that the indicator is right, but the current asset price behavior is different from that showed before the beginning of backtesting.

レビュー 3
Tim Eubanks
5552
Tim Eubanks 2018.03.21 05:53 
 

Good Binary Option indicator

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チャートオーバーレイ インジケーターは、同じチャートで複数の商品の価格アクションを表示し、通貨ペアが互いにどのように変動するかを評価できます。 [ インストールガイド | 更新ガイド | トラブルシューティング | よくある質問 | すべての製品 ] 買われ過ぎまたは売られ過ぎの通貨ペアを簡単に見つける 同じチャートに最大6つの通貨ペアを重ねてプロット 必要に応じて反転記号を表示する チャートのサイズ、ズーム、時間枠に適応 自動価格レベル計算 カスタマイズ可能な価格レベル密度 カスタマイズ可能な色とサイズ 通貨ペアの反転とは何ですか? 通貨ペアの反転とは、取引の主要通貨を反転させた2つの通貨間の為替レートを表示することです。たとえば、EURUSD、GBPUSD、およびUSDJPYを同じオーバーレイチャートにプロットする場合、価格が逆レートを反映するためにUSDJPYを反転することは理にかなっています:JPYUSD。これにより、JPYUSDの価格は、オーバーレイチャートの他の2つのシンボルと正の相関関係で移動し、チャートの学習が容易になります。 インジケーターのテスト
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Currency Strength Exotics
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CURRENTLY 20% OFF !! ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐  Best Solution for any Newbie or Expert Trader! This Indicator is specialized to show currency strength for any symbols like Exotic Pairs Commodities, Indexes or Futures . Is first of its kind, any symbol can be added to the 9th line to show TRUE CURRENCY STRENGTH of Gold, Silver, Oil, DAX, US30, MXN, TRY, CNH etc. This is a unique, high quality and affordable trading tool because we have incorporated a number of proprietary features and a new formula. Imagine how your
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The Missing Edge You Need To Catch Breakouts Like A Pro. Follow a step-by-step system that detects the most powerful breakouts! Discover market patterns that generate massive rewards based on a proven and tested strategy. Unlock Your Serious Edge Get it here ► www.mql5.com/en/blogs/post/723208 Have access to the game changing indicator that will take your trading to the next level! How To Trade Execute your trades in 3 Easy Steps! Step 1: Trade Setup Enter a signal if Success Rate is
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This tool is the FREE version of the Honest Predictor indicator, a trend predictor with an  expiry time implemented that is especially suitable for Binary Options. To facilitate the testing of the indicator before purchasing, I created this freely downloadable version that has exactly the same features as the payed version, but with one limitation: it can be attached only to one chart at a time. Read carefully the description and comments of the indicator before using it. Rather than implementin
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DailyTrader TEST
Paolo Miocchi
This expert is a free copy of the DailyTrader EA and it was created for the purposes of a quick and easy evaluation of the product. Indeed, when tested within the Strategy Tester, it operates on bar open prices. This greatly facilitates the backtesting because the much faster Open prices only mode can be used in the Strategy Tester. Please, notice that this free version can only be used within the Strategy Tester. For best accuracy, it is advisable to use M1 as bars data and backtest timeframe.
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Spread Analyser FREE
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Spread Analyser is a simple but useful indicator which shows and analyses your broker floating-spread history. Although many brokers claim to have a low spread, they often refer to the time-averaged value, without giving any indications on the maximum value reached during the day. Quite often, the instantaneous spread shows "peaks" that are several times higher than this average. If these peaks take place during high volatility conditions (as happens frequently) then they can dramatically affect
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This simple Testing Honest Predictor (THP) Expert Advisor was created in order to easily and meaningfully test the Honest Predictor indicator (iHP) performances, within the MT4 Strategy Tester . Given an asset and a timeframe, THP selects a part of the positions displayed by iHP and prints on the journal (screenshot #2) the percentage of winning positions as if they were executed by a user. It accepts only positions for which iHP suggests a reliability level not "UNRELIABLE" and a probability hi
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Honest Predictor for Binary Options
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Honest Predictor indicator ( iHP ) predicts trend direction at a given "expiry time" making it particularly suitable for traders operating with Binary Options . Its main features are: "Honest" statistical information provided about the level of reliability of the trend predictions. No redrawing, no recalculation performed. The indicator is stable and calculated only on closed bars (not on ticks). Positions outcome evaluated on actual closing prices. Based on the RSI technical indicator within a
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DailyTrader
Paolo Miocchi
DailyTrader (DT) is a trading robot designed to trade on the breakout of important resistance/support levels. It typically executes one or two trades per day. The present version, with default settings, is most efficient on GBPUSD, USDJPY and EURUSD pairs, provided that the spread is not larger than 2 pips. Please, do backtest with your broker's quotes on "Every Tick" mode (possibly with real ticks, 99% quality), before using the robot on a real account. Features It only uses pending orders. S
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TrustyTrader
Paolo Miocchi
TrustyTrader is a professional indicator based on a proprietary algorithm that suitably combines and filters moving averages to detect profitable trends. Through a deep statistical analysis and a built-in optimizer, it provides reliable alert signals to enter the market, along with solid indications on optimal Stop-Loss (SL) and Take-Profit (TP) levels. The indicator is never either repainted/backpainted or recalculated and signals are strictly on the "Close of the bar" (try the free DEMO or see
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Spread Analyser
Paolo Miocchi
Spread Analyser is a simple but useful indicator which shows and analyses your broker floating-spread history. Although many brokers claim to have a low spread, they often refer to the time-averaged value, without giving any indications on the maximum value reached during the day. Quite often, the instantaneous spread shows "peaks" that are several times higher than this average. If these peaks take place during high volatility conditions (as happens frequently) then they can dramatically affect
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Trading Analyser
Paolo Miocchi
The aim of this indicator is to provide statistical information about the user trading activity as recorded in the MetaTrader Account History . It can be loaded on any chart and timeframe and the information is shown on the main window and refreshed every time a new bar is formed. The orders can be selected according to various meaningful criteria: their type (long and/or short), those having a given magic number, those executed in a given time interval, on a particular weekday, on a given symbo
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フィルタ:
Maksym Mudrakov
24655
Maksym Mudrakov 2016.08.31 11:29 
 

ユーザーは評価に対して何もコメントを残しませんでした

Gennadiy Voltornist
12021
Gennadiy Voltornist 2017.11.05 18:11 
 

ユーザーは評価に対して何もコメントを残しませんでした

Tim Eubanks
5552
Tim Eubanks 2018.03.21 05:53 
 

Good Binary Option indicator

レビューに返信
バージョン 1.4 2015.06.30
It optimizes ver. 2.2 of Honest Predictor Indicator (paid, full version) in which the "trend prediction mode" (either REVERSAL or CONTINUATION) is a further parameter to optimize.

See "What's New" section of iHP product page for possible compatibility with later versions of the indicator.


Please, bear in mind that the backtesting accuracy can DROP quite rapidly on subsequent hours/days, especially if short duration (say less than 14 days) is used. To consider longer backtesting periods, I strongly recommend to do the optimization with "Testing Honest Predictor" EA.
バージョン 1.3 2015.06.17
It optimizes ver. 2.1 of Honest Predictor Indicator (paid, full version) in which further trend filters (as well as the Spread) are included.
See "What's New" section of iHP product page for possible compatibility with later versions of the indicator.

- Added "Spread" input parameter (in pips; negative: estimated from current Ask-Bid).

Please, bear in mind that the backtesting accuracy can DROP quite rapidly on subsequent hours/days, especially if short duration (say less than 14 days) is used. To consider longer backtesting periods, I strongly recommend to do the optimization with "Testing Honest Predictor" EA.
バージョン 1.2 2015.06.04
It optimizes ver. 1.9 of Honest Predictor Indicator (free ver. 2.0), in which time gaps (e.g. weekends) are excluded from backtesting.
See "What's New" section of iHP product page for possible compatibility with later versions of the indicator.

- Substantial improvements in execution speed and memory usage.

- Removed "Minimum Accuracy" parameter (now internally set to 50%).

- Added "Out-of-the-money" position payout parameter (in %).

- Added "In-the-money" position payout parameter (in %).

- Added "Maximize Profit instead of Accuracy" flag. If true, the optimization finds the maximum profit (in %) instead of accuracy. The profit depends on the two parameters above (that are broker-dependent) and it is calculated relative to the investment, which is assumed to be the same for all positions.

- The shortest backtesting duration has been removed from the automatic optimization in order to reduce statistical fluctuations.

Please, bear in mind that the backtesting accuracy can DROP quite rapidly on subsequent hours/days, especially if short duration (say less than 14 days) is used. Since for short timeframes (smaller than M30) not many bars are usually available, I strongly recommend to do the optimization with "Testing Honest Predictor" EA in these cases.