EA Signal Reliability only increase when make losses and recover it?

[[Deleted]]

I have been testing my EA performance on a signal

And like any trading system can have days of winnings and days of losses

The only thing I noticed that when I use new account and be a winning day, or most trades are winning the reliability of signal be low ( 1-red or 2-orange )

But when start the day with a loss and the system recover these losses, usually I get high reliability more than 4 or 4.5 ( dark Green )

I just don't know how this reliability system works and really so confusing for me, to under-rate winning and give high reliability to system that started with loss then recovered it

What you think about it?

[Ryan L Johnson]

samyhussein:

I have been testing my EA performance on a signal

And like any trading system can have days of winnings and days of losses

The only thing I noticed that when I use new account and be a winning day, or most trades are winning the reliability of signal be low ( 1-red or 2-orange )

But when start the day with a loss and the system recover these losses, usually I get high reliability more than 4 or 4.5 ( dark Green )

I just don't know how this reliability system works and really so confusing for me, to under-rate winning and give high reliability to system that started with loss then recovered it

What you think about it?

Without knowing the complete underlying logic of the signal, all that I can say is that it sounds like Martingale "risk management" is incorporated into the signal's' logic. I put risk management because Martingale is not a valid recovery method. You can take any trading strategy having unprofitable entry logic and create the appearance of profitability merely by adding Martingale to that logic. Martingale simply refuses to take any loss whatsoever─a fatal mistake in any strategy. Martingale is a ticking time bomb because, inevitably, continued doubling down leads to a situation in which the account balance/margin required no longer supports opening additional trades. This is why I refer to it as Martingarbage.

[[Deleted]]

Ryan L Johnson #:
Without knowing the complete underlying logic of the signal, all that I can say is that it sounds like Martingale "risk management" is incorporated into the signal's' logic. I put risk management because Martingale is not a valid recovery method. You can take any trading strategy having unprofitable entry logic and create the appearance of profitability merely by adding Martingale to that logic. Martingale simply refuses to take any loss whatsoever─a fatal mistake in any strategy. Martingale is a ticking time bomb because, inevitably, continued doubling down leads to a situation in which the account balance/margin required no longer supports opening additional trades. This is why I refer to it as Martingarbage.

No it is not, it sticks with one lot and fixed position size for every trade until closed, with hard sl and trailing profit

Never open 2 trades at the same time, never make martingale or hedging 

[Ryan L Johnson]

samyhussein #:

No it is not, it sticks with one lot and fixed position size for every trade until closed, with hard sl and trailing profit

Never open 2 trades at the same time, never make martingale or hedging 

In that case, what you describe is merely the average way of trading. You have consecutive winners versus consecutive losers. While those numbers are important, drawdown (floating and maximal) is even more important because it's based on your capital. You can run an EA through the Tester to easily get all of those numbers and more.

(This assumes that you're trading your own EA and not someone else's signal).

[[Deleted]]

Ryan L Johnson #:
You have cons

I said "my EA" which I developed for my own trading, I just created a signal to see the reliability metrics and how it will be rated by the system

I was thinking reliability is based on long term performance, but I was surprised to see it from day one, I had manual trading signal that made more than 100% with less than 15% DD and reliability was like 1 or 2

In this signal for the EA I see it in first day, it successful trading day, I get reliability around 2 but if the day start with loss then recover the reliability go more than 4 then by more time of wins move to 3

I really cannot understand the rule they calculate this, and support never explained it and always reply it is internal issue they will never explain it

[Sergey Golubev]

samyhussein #:
I just created a signal to see the reliability metrics and how it will be rated by the system

You do not have any signal created by your profile (and it is prohibited to have more than one username here on the forum) ... 
anyway, if it is related to the Signal service so read this thread:
Signals - Reliability