Martingale strategies: where do they usually fail in real market conditions?

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Over the years, I’ve seen many traders use martingale-based strategies, both manually and through EAs.

In short backtests and ideal conditions, these systems often look very attractive. However, in real trading, many accounts still end up failing sooner or later.

In your experience, where do you think martingale really breaks down?
Is it risk management, position sizing, drawdown tolerance, broker conditions, market regime changes, or unrealistic expectations?

I’m interested in hearing real trading experiences — not just theoretical opinions.

 

Martingale is not a strategy. It's a betting system.

Hedging, grid trading, same as Martingale.
          Martingale, Hedging and Grid : MHG - General - MQL5 programming forum (2016)

Martingale, guaranteed to blow your account eventually. If your strategy is not profitable without, it is definitely not profitable with.
          Martingale vs. Non Martingale (Simplified RoR vs Profit and the Illusions) - MQL5 programming forum (2015)

Why it won't work:
          Calculate Loss from Lot Pips - MQL5 programming forum (2017)
          THIS Trading Strategy is a LIE... I took 100,000 TRADES with the Martingale Strategy - YouTube (2020)
          Does a safe Martingale exist ? - Trading Systems - MQL5 programming forum (2010)

 
Amir Jahed-armaghani:


this topic has been discussed over and over and over again over the years. If you had done a simple search of the site before posting, then, you would have found many of them.

to summarize... mg works until it doesn't!

 

Martingale fails because it has unlimited downside and capped upside in a market with no obligation to revert. So what kills martingale ? , 

 A trend that lasts longer than your margin can last . 

 
Michael Charles Schefe #:

this topic has been discussed over and over and over again over the years. If you had done a simple search of the site before posting, then, you would have found many of them.

to summarize... mg works until it doesn't!

My friend, why are you so upset?

I didn’t create this post to ask questions or because I’m new to trading. That was not my intention at all.

I opened this topic to share experiences and to help newer traders who are starting out and using martingale strategies understand the real risks involved. Those of us who have already experienced it know how dangerous this strategy can be.

The purpose is simply to exchange real experiences so beginners can learn from them and avoid excessive use of martingale systems.

 
William Roeder #:

Martingale is not a strategy. It's a betting system.

Hedging, grid trading, same as Martingale.
          Martingale, Hedging and Grid : MHG - General - MQL5 programming forum (2016)

Martingale, guaranteed to blow your account eventually. If your strategy is not profitable without, it is definitely not profitable with.
          Martingale vs. Non Martingale (Simplified RoR vs Profit and the Illusions) - MQL5 programming forum (2015)

Why it won't work:
          Calculate Loss from Lot Pips - MQL5 programming forum (2017)
          THIS Trading Strategy is a LIE... I took 100,000 TRADES with the Martingale Strategy - YouTube (2020)
          Does a safe Martingale exist ? - Trading Systems - MQL5 programming forum (2010)

Thank you for your clear and well-reasoned response. I completely agree with your points.

Martingale is indeed not a trading strategy but a money management or betting system, and as you explained, it is guaranteed to fail in the long run. If a trading system is not profitable without martingale, adding it will not magically make it profitable.

I appreciate you sharing these references and explanations. They add valuable information to this topic and will definitely help other traders—especially newcomers—better understand the real risks of martingale when they read this post in the future.

 
Victor Paul Hamilton #:

Martingale fails because it has unlimited downside and capped upside in a market with no obligation to revert. So what kills martingale ? , 

 A trend that lasts longer than your margin can last . 

Exactly, that’s a very good way to put it.

The unlimited downside combined with a limited upside is the core problem, especially in markets that are not guaranteed to revert. A single strong trend lasting longer than the account’s margin tolerance is enough to wipe out a martingale-based system.

Thank you for explaining it so clearly. This kind of explanation makes the risk very easy to understand for anyone reading this thread, especially newer traders.

 
In my experience, Martingale strategies often fail because they rely on the assumption that losing streaks will always end “soon enough.” Real markets don’t follow a predictable pattern, and extended drawdowns can wipe out accounts before the system recovers. Position sizing and risk management are critical without strict limits, even a few consecutive losses can become catastrophic. Broker conditions, like spreads and execution delays, also add hidden risk that backtests rarely capture. Ultimately, the breakdown isn’t just the strategy itself it’s the combination of market volatility, unrealistic expectations, and lack of proper safeguards that turns a seemingly profitable system into a disaster in real trading.
 
Amir Jahed-armaghani #:


who's upset? Why open this topic again when everyone born in 21st century has been taught since they were knee high to search a website? This website already has this topic many times.

https://www.mql5.com/en/search#!keyword=martingale&module=mql5_module_forum

 
Michael Charles Schefe #:
who's upset? Why open this topic again when everyone born in 21st century has been taught since they were knee high to search a website? This website already has this topic many times.
Nobody forced you to open this thread, my friend.
Contrary to your opinion, I still know people who are being fooled by the Martingale strategy.
 
Sejro Toussaint Boco #:
In my experience, Martingale strategies often fail because they rely on the assumption that losing streaks will always end “soon enough.” Real markets don’t follow a predictable pattern, and extended drawdowns can wipe out accounts before the system recovers. Position sizing and risk management are critical without strict limits, even a few consecutive losses can become catastrophic. Broker conditions, like spreads and execution delays, also add hidden risk that backtests rarely capture. Ultimately, the breakdown isn’t just the strategy itself it’s the combination of market volatility, unrealistic expectations, and lack of proper safeguards that turns a seemingly profitable system into a disaster in real trading.
Exactly. Thanks for sharing your experience, buddy.
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