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Backtesting accuracy
The main problem with backtesting is in my opinion the promise or the hype that starting with a 500 USD account in 3-5 years you will grow your account to 50 million USD or even more. To cut it short you cannot become rich starting with a 500 USD account in 5 years. The funny thing is that many traders choose to spend hundreds or even thousands of dollars on such EA's.
Most of them are trash mutton dressed as lamb .Back testing obsession is what leads people to part with cash when they should full well know back tests do not work in real live conditions .
In my early days as a trader, I only cared about how much I could make, regardless of the risk to my account. But after 13 years of experience, my primary focus is achieving small but consistent profits over the long term without high account risk. This is how I trade to this day, and I believe it's the best approach because it allows me to profit despite the crazy fluctuations happening these days.
Great topic for thoughtful discussions.
While all the points listed are valid hurdles, Risk / Money Management is undeniably the alpha and omega of systematic trading. Everything else is secondary to how you manage your capital.
To break it down:
Market irregularities and fat-tail events can largely be smoothed out through robust statistical methods. You design the architecture to absorb variance, cap tail risk, and optimize the win rate.
As for emotional control (trusting the EA) --- this shouldn't even be a factor if your underlying algorithmic logic is bulletproof. If your logic is mathematically sound and statistically significant, it will yield a positive expected return over a large sample size. You don't need "trust" when you have statistical confidence.
Regarding backtesting accuracy, let's be real: there is no such thing as 100% "clean" historical data. Even if you use high-end tick data managers, it still won't perfectly replicate live broker conditions --- spread widening, micro-slippage, and execution latency (especially on volatile pairs) are realities of the live market. Over-optimizing for a perfect backtest is a trap. You just get as close as possible and let your risk models handle the discrepancies.
My core argument: This brings us back to the real magic: Risk Management. RM isn't just about setting a stop loss; it's where the true architectural genius of a system shines. You can hand two traders the exact same core logic with the exact same high win rate, but depending on their position sizing algorithms and dynamic drawdown constraints, the resulting equity curves will be night and day.
At the end of the day, your entry logic might give you an edge, but your risk management model dictates whether you actually survive long enough to realize that positive expectancy.