Fake Pivots and false experts (retrospective algorithms)
Through experimentation one night, I figured out it was very easy to calculate the truest pivots in the market with minimal code by calculating the candles moving backwards in time rather than forwards. Moving backwards in time isn't reality, and of course we always move forwards in live trading.
Imagine storing all of these calculated pivots into a neural net and telling the EA to backtest after it knows where exactly to trade? This is likely what's happening with some experts on the marketplace and why there are very unrealistic backtests on some of them.
I coded this indicator which demonstrates perfect pivots, and also calculates live market pivots with the same minimal code. It demonstrates how it all falls apart live, and I believe this is how many AI based experts are rubbish on the live market.
Now look how it looks moving forward, and note how it all falls apart:
There are of course many good pivot indicators, and the zigzag, but I just thought it was interesting how easy it is for the software to grab the true pivots when searching backwards instead of forwards.
this is not a pure zig zag i suppose right ?
no it's not, although it is looking just like a zigzag. I coded something which has no rules nor math, and what it does is analyses the shape of the bands. When the band flattens, it's a trigger for the pivot, and I just added a zigzag drawing in to connect those points. I thought maybe this could be something for live trading, but I have yet to make it into a decent pivot indicator (if it could be possible in some way)
I turned it into something more useful so it isn't going in the trash after all - instead of signals, a trend line from confirmed pivot to current extreme
I turned it into something more useful so it isn't going in the trash after all - instead of signals, a trend line from confirmed pivot to current extreme
Interesting... yet frightening.😅
Just for kicks, how does the standard repainting ZigZag indicator compare when overlaid with your "ZagZig" indicator?
I imagine that the same spoof would be possible with both. I mean, if the points are pre-saved in advance of the backtest then what's the difference in terms of spoofing?
Interesting... yet frightening.😅
Just for kicks, how does the standard repainting ZigZag indicator compare when overlaid with your "ZagZig" indicator?
I imagine that the same spoof would be possible with both. I mean, if the points are pre-saved in advance of the backtest then what's the difference in terms of spoofing?
the zigzag points are essentially the same, although what I realized is that it's very easy to get all these same pivots when performing the scanning in a decremental loop. Then when the decremental loop is put into a live scenario, it's forced to scan forward no matter what - since time moves forward. In order to make these "true" pivots in real time, the reality is that we have to use a large depth for confirmation, and lag is inevitable.
The only true solution in combatting the lag necessary for confirmation is to use quantitative algos, or make the indicator multi-timeframe
the zigzag points are essentially the same, although what I realized is that it's very easy to get all these same pivots when performing the scanning in a decremental loop. Then when the decremental loop is put into a live scenario, it's forced to scan forward no matter what - since time moves forward. In order to make these "true" pivots in real time, the reality is that we have to use a large depth for confirmation, and lag is inevitable.
The only true solution in combatting the lag necessary for confirmation is to use quantitative algos, or make the indicator multi-timeframe
Yeah, I actually converted a non-repainting "zigzag-ish" indicator over to MT5 a while ago. It prints a secondary arrow at the time at which the primary pivot prints (as opposed to the bar position of the pivot). Veteran traders seem to like it, but I have my doubts as to whether it's really a ZigZag at all.
I think we all know that the actual ZigZag is truly intended to mark out tops and bottoms in history in order to identify series of waves. The original ZigZag author, Bill Wolfe, is probably having a cow somewhere.😠🐄
Yeah, I actually converted a non-repainting "zigzag-ish" indicator over to MT5 a while ago. It prints a secondary arrow at the time at which the primary pivot prints (as opposed to the bar position of the pivot). Veteran traders seem to like it, but I have my doubts as to whether it's really a ZigZag at all.
I think we all know that the actual ZigZag is truly intended to mark out tops and bottoms in history in order to identify series of waves. The original ZigZag author, Bill Wolfe, is probably having a cow somewhere.😠🐄
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Through experimentation one night, I figured out it was very easy to calculate the truest pivots in the market with minimal code by calculating the candles moving backwards in time rather than forwards. Moving backwards in time isn't reality, and of course we always move forwards in live trading.
Imagine storing all of these calculated pivots into a neural net and telling the EA to backtest after it knows where exactly to trade? This is likely what's happening with some experts on the marketplace and why there are very unrealistic backtests on some of them.
I coded this indicator which demonstrates perfect pivots, and also calculates live market pivots with the same minimal code. It demonstrates how it all falls apart live, and I believe this is how many AI based experts are rubbish on the live market.
Now look how it looks moving forward, and note how it all falls apart:
There are of course many good pivot indicators, and the zigzag, but I just thought it was interesting how easy it is for the software to grab the true pivots when searching backwards instead of forwards.