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We are all familiar with the concept of seasonality, for example, we are all accustomed to rising prices for fresh vegetables in winter or rising fuel prices during severe frosts, but few people know that similar patterns exist in the Forex market.

Seasonality is a phenomenon where price experiences similar and predictable changes during the same period each calendar year. These changes may occur during a particular meteorological season, crop season, quarter, month, holiday period or off-peak period. Seasonal analysis is characteristic of the commodity market. For example, there is a seasonal trend in the demand for heating oil, which increases prices when demand rises and decreases when demand falls. There is a seasonal trend in the supply of soybeans (associated with planting, growing and harvesting) that influences prices by creating patterns.


Seasonality also occurs in other markets, such as stocks, indices and Forex, usually for fundamental reasons. Identifying seasonal patterns and using them to forecast trends, identify trade ideas or identify a trading opportunity can give a trader an edge. Note how seasonality itself can vary and change over the course of different years. Whether used alone or in combination with other methods, seasonal analysis is an undeniably useful tool.

Author: Roman Shiredchenko

 

Seasonality is a phenomenon where the price undergoes similar and predictable changes during the same period each calendar year.

In fact, seasonality with annual cyclicality is not interesting in trading. They are interesting in ascending order: monthly, weekly, daily seasonalities. There are also seasonalities with a cycle of hours, but there, as a rule, costs overlap revenues.

By using seasonalities with a smaller cycle you avoid the main problem mentioned in the article, namely the lack of statistical significance of the results.

 
Dmi3 #:
There is also seasonality with a cycle of hours, but there already, as a rule, costs overlap revenues.

thanks. For the comment and thoughts... I was looking at the patterns (glimpses) of hourly movement of the euro over the years in the table.... manually entered the data.... so far I have not found very obvious ones visually....

I used a script to collect the status, like how much the price went up and down from 0 to 23 hours. I haven't found any obvious ones on Eurodollar.....

I will run through electronic excel - I will make a sample and look more thoroughly.....

There you can also look at session seasonality....


In general, on commodity markets seasonality by seasons works.... You can also take a look at the sample by year - every year....

I get invitations to enter - exit from the seasonal site: like date of entry, direction and term of holding the position and approximate average profit for the period in the position.....

Then I can describe a little more.... here if you are interested.

And in general - you can watch and make a selection by sessions also by script, for example.....

 
It's funny, in previous years gold always started rising in December. Last year it started rising in November. And this year it's already in October?
 
Roman Shiredchenko #:

sps. For the comment and thoughts....I was looking at the patterns (glimpsed) hourly movement of the euro over the years in a table..... manually entering data.... so far I haven't found any very obvious ones visually....

I used a script to collect the status, like how much the price went up and down from 0 to 23 hours. I haven't found any obvious ones on Eurodollar.....

I will run through electronic excel - I will make a sample and look more thoroughly.....

There you can also look at session seasonality....


In general on commodity markets seasonality by seasons works.... You can also look at a sample by year - each of them....

I get invitations to enter - exit from the seasonal site: like date of entry, direction and term of holding the position and approximate average profit for the period in the position.....

Then I can describe a little more.... here if you are interested.

And in general - you can watch and make a selection by sessions also by script, for example.....

There may be nothing on Eurodollar, it is too highly effective instrument. On Moscow Exchange indices and some shares there is, as well as on the ruble to the dollar.

 
Dmi3 #:

There may be nothing on the eurodollar, it is too high-performance instrument. On mosbirch indices, individual stocks there is, as well as on ruble to dollar.

Spsb for the tip... ;-) I will look and do....
 
Roman Shiredchenko #:

sps. For the comment and thoughts...I was looking at the patterns (glimpsed) hourly movement of the euro over the years in a table.... manually entering data.... so far I haven't found any very obvious ones visually....

I used a script to collect the status, like how much the price went up and down from 0 to 23 hours. I haven't found any obvious ones on Eurodollar.....

I will run it through electronic excel - I will make a sample and look more thoroughly.....

There you can also look at session seasonality....


In general on commodity markets seasonality by seasons works.... You can also look at a sample by years - each of them....

I get invitations to enter - exit from the seasonal site: like date of entry, direction and term of holding the position and approximate average profit for the period in the position.....

Then I can describe a little more.... here if you are interested.

And in general - you can watch and make a selection by sessions also by script, for example.....

Why torture yourself so much if you can take Hartley transformation and use it to detect all cycles (if any)?

 
Aleksej Poljakov #:

Why torture yourself when you can take the Hartley transform and use it to identify all cycles (if any)?

please have fun as you see fit. I find seasonality clearer and more reliable. And more fun! No torture at all. One buzz.
You have another opera.... ;-)
 
My opinion on seasonality is that it is quite a workable approach if trading long term and taking into account the external background (epidemics, droughts, wars and other trending market conditions).
 
Sergei Kiriakov #:
My opinion on seasonality is quite a working approach if you trade long term and taking into account the external background (epidemics, droughts, wars and other trend market conditions).
Yes. By the way, at the end of the year I'm gaining gold and silver..... later from December, maybe I'll post here seasonality for the end of the year, December of this year.
 
Roman, it is not enough to project the lines of old years ahead of the current price according to the dates, because it is more convenient to observe the future :) is it possible to implement it?
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