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The regularities of price movements: Part 2. Series of bars - page 17

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DmitriyN:
Let's complicate it to the real thing.
Come on already, it's still a blank.
[Deleted]
TheXpert:
Come on already, it's still a blank.
Society needs to think. You're not trying to swallow the cake in one bite. You eat it piece by piece... That's what newcomers need to digest.
And celestial arcs from maths professionals have yet to erupt.
DmitriyN:

I don't need to be told that
- there's no such thing as 2 out of 6;

Yes, you do.

It doesn't happen, it's too rigid a condition. I dare even point out that if you do find a strategy that gives such a distribution, then it is profitable without lot manipulation (by virtue of a proven lemma in a neighbouring thread)

DmitryN, your strategy for a series of 6 trades has nothing to do with trading. Firstly, you are considering a deterministic game. Secondly, finite (i.e. if you play several times - state and optimal strategy of new game do not depend on previous ones). In reality the percentage of profitable deals will converge to probabilities at series length tending to infinity, i.e. you will not be able to re-execute strategy after achieving success, as maximum time to get winning is not limited by anything
DmitriyN:

It's just a game to think about direction to think about ...
(post please do not quote)

The direction to think here is one completely far-fetched example.


And in general, no betting system leads to a winning strategy. On random data it is simply not possible. It's the same on data that looks like random.

[Deleted]
alsu:

No way, it is too rigid a condition. I dare even point out that if you do find a strategy that gives this distribution, then it is profitable without lot manipulation (by virtue of a proven lemma in a neighbouring thread)

Do you think I'm in a position to write a game of a hundred moves? Better - don't :)
DmitriyN:
That's for sure. It's far-fetched. Five minutes of thinking. Only Freemasons can win in forex.

What does this miracle game have to do with forex or Freemasons?
The key to this approach is that you cannot be certain that any number of trades will necessarily be profitable. It can only be asserted with a certain probability. And this probability will eventually outweigh the theoretical profit. Just like in the martingale story. A low probability, but very unprofitable event will balance more probable, but less profitable trades.
DmitriyN:
Just kidding. I'm in the middle of something important - listening to Dostoyevsky's Demons.
Reading the author?
HideYourRichess:

The direction to think here is one thing - acompletely far-fetched example.


In general, no betting systemleads to a winning strategy. On random data it's simplyimpossible. It's the same on data that looks like random.

spit in the face of the person who told you that :-) - or tear up that textbook where you read that...

Read a report from Brookhaven National Laboratory - where they investigated the parrondo paradox as it applies to financial markets :-)


There are betting systems that allow you to make a profit on random data...

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