[Archive!] FOREX - Trends, Forecasts & Consequences (Episode 12: February 2012) - page 141
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Not 1.26 awaits))))
There will be 1.25 and 1.22 and even 1.2 the only question is, WHAT???
There will be 1.25 and 1.22 and even 1.2.
After the Fed announced on 25 January its pledge to keep interest rates at minimum levels until the end of 2014 and noted the possibility of further quantitative easing, John Taylor, founder of FX Concepts, a major currency hedge fund, has a bearish view of the US dollar outlook.
The specialist is even more negative towards the dollar than the euro. "All market participants are confident that once the dollar starts to gain strength, Bernanke will come up with another way to weaken it," Taylor says. In his view, EUR/USD will slide to parity by the end of the year.
The economist also expects the dollar to weaken against the Japanese yen, despite the fact that at the moment the American currency is temporarily supported by dollar purchases made by the Bank of Japan. Taylor shares the view that the Japanese central bank will intervene when USD/JPY falls to levels around 75 yen, but notes that "cunning" traders and speculators will wait for the pair to rise on the wave of intervention, after which they will start selling dollars again.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) published another report on Friday on traders' positions in the FX market.
- Euro: net short positions declined from 171,000 contracts (24.01) to 158,000 contracts (31.01). This level remains excessively high.
- British pound: net short positions declined from 31 thousand contracts (24.01) to 26 thousand contracts (31.01). Sterling shorts declined for the second week in a row.
- Japanese yen: net long positions have risen from 44,000 contracts (24.01) to 57,000 contracts (31.01). The Yen is just below its high for more than a year reached on January 10, when net longs surpassed the August 2 level of 59k contracts.
- Swiss franc: Net short positions have declined from 13,000 contracts (24.01) to 11,000 contracts (31.01). The franc shorts have declined for the second week in a row.
- The number of long positions in the USD is down by one-third, the total number in the region of 100k contracts is not excessive. In monetary terms, the volume of longs has fallen from $20.09bn (24.01) to $14bn (24.01). (24.01) to $14.22 billion. (31.01).
The CFTC publishes the Commitment of Traders Report (COT) every Friday. This report shows the number of long and short positions opened by traders in the futures market. The COT report allows you to gauge market sentiment, particularly for the big players. It should be noted that the data is as of Tuesday's close of the published trading week, which means that the information appears with a time lag of 4 days. Nevertheless, the CFTC's data can give a good overview of the market participants' positions and how these positions change.
Before the bend in the beam ))))
Don't swear)))
that's what I'm talking about)))) where's that?
Well, you know my position on the move.)
1.25 will be late February-March 2012, and 1.22 and 1.2 will not be this year most likely
Before the bend through the beam ))))
Don't swear))))
that's what I said)))) where is it?
Choose any level above zero )))) Whatever you like )))
Question: what are you basing this prediction on??? I think I'm not the only one who would be interested!
you just write it down in your notebook and you will see. I am not revealing the principles of my forecasting, but you will see that it will
Too late )))) You revealed it a long time ago )))