[Archive] FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Consequences (Episode 11: January 2012) - page 460
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Because they are messing with Iran, a new war is brewing - minus the dollar, minus US GDP and an increase in the already huge budget deficit...
tried to read the nickname... realized that vlad.yakovlevich is clearly an overthinker.
Vladimir Yakovlevich is Dad. He did something and my nickname changed. Actually, my name is Dimon.
instead of taking economic measures, there are distractions, hence....
If the total volume of oil sold by Iran declines, there will be a need to increase production in other countries and also to raise oil prices, thereby reducing demand on the world market. Iran accounts for about 5% of global black gold production. According to expert estimates, it would be extremely difficult to compensate for such a reduction in supply. James Hamilton, an economist at the University of California, notes that in the past such cuts in oil sales have led to a price increase of 25-70% and consequently to recession in the United States.
According to calculations by the Energy Information Administration (an agency within the US Department of Energy), a price increase of 20 dollars per barrel is equivalent to a decrease of 0.4 percentage points of US GDP. Considering that in the third quarter of 2011 the American economy grew only 1.8% year-on-year, such threats have to be reckoned with.
If the same increase in oil prices were to occur in 2012, it would wipe out almost entirely the entire positive effect of the extension of the payroll tax credit that has been debated for so long in the US Congress. It is true that America has increased production of shale oil from its own reserves. However, domestic production will still not suffice in the event of supply disruptions from abroad. The United States will be able to protect itself only by finding a substitute for oil - an alternative fuel, and this research is going on, but not as quickly and successfully as Americans would like.
J.P.Morgan analysts believe that the euphoria will not last long and that the current euro rise should be used to sell EUR/USD. Specialists remind that another EU summit will take place on 30 January, the outcome of which may disappoint the market again.
If the pair will rise to $1.3100, it will be possible to begin to open shorts, putting stops at a level of $1.3250 and expecting pair fall to $1.2750.
Such strategy is applicable only in case negotiations between Greece and its creditors are successful. If the country fails on this issue this week, however, it will be necessary to sell the Euro at any current levels.
J.P.Morgan analysts believe that the euphoria will not last long and that the current rise in the euro should be used to sell EUR/USD. Specialists remind that another EU summit will take place on 30 January, the outcome of which may disappoint the market again.
If the pair will rise to $1.3100, it will be possible to begin to open shorts, putting stops at a level of $1.3250 and expecting pair fall to $1.2750.
Such strategy is feasible only if negotiations between Greece and its creditors are successful. If the country fails on this issue this week, however, it will be necessary to sell the Euro at any current levels.
They do)))) Only they don't say that the big guys are already shopping and don't really care what they decide about Greece)))
2012.01.23 15:41:12 *Iranrepeats threat to close Strait of Hormuz after EU official decision to impose embargo - reports
The second US aircraft carrier has entered the Persian Gulf
p.s . who will even ask them ))))) funny.... pure children
They do)))) Only they don't say that the big guys are already buying and don't really care what they decide about Greece)))
Vladimir Yakovlevich is Dad. He did something and my nickname changed. Actually, my name is Dimon.