Econometrics: one step ahead forecast - page 89
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Why do you need this "stationarity"? (it's like an obsession) It's not there, it's not there. Get rid of that illusion, get it out of your head. It keeps the thought tied up -- from now to now.
There really is no need for it. And it doesn't follow from anywhere that it is present, or ought to be present, anywhere.
Why do you need this "stationarity"? (it's like an obsession) It's not there, it's not there....
It's there, it's there.
it's a matter of faith already. It isn't!
Why do you need this "stationarity"? (it's like an obsession) It's not there, it's not there. Get rid of that illusion, get it out of your head. It keeps the thought tied up -- from now to now.
There really is no need for it. And it doesn't follow from anywhere that it is present, or ought to be present, anywhere.
What is needed is the temporary stationarity of certain quotient characteristics, which can be used profitably. So that they change slowly enough. Then a system based on historical data can be trusted for some time.
It's not a question of faith, it's a question of money.
A little elder in a garden and an old man in Kiev...
You need the temporary stationarity of some of the quotient characteristics that can be used profitably. So that they change slowly enough. Then a system built on historical data can be trusted for some time.
Of course. It can't be because it can never be. And why have sunspots when you can do without them?
Why do you need this "stationarity"? (it's like an obsession) It's not there, it's not there. Get rid of that illusion, get it out of your head. It keeps the thought tied up -- from now to now.
There really is no need for it. Besides, it doesn't follow from anywhere that it is present or should be present at all.
If an economic process is not stationary (steady-state) and hence ergodic, and even if the probability distribution functions of investment expectations can still be computed, these functions are subject to sudden (i.e. unpredictable) changes. There are currently no statistical methods that allow for reliable forecasts of market dynamics, due to the non-ergodicity of statistical series of economic data.