[Archive!] FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Consequences (Episode 7: September 2011) - page 73
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* I, saw it on the Alpari forum :-)( EURFLOOD - 12.09 - 16.09/2011)
that's me (links to zulu in my personal email)
I see! :-)
You could have written in private; why frame the person?
Once again on dollar liquidity
It became known on 14.09 that the central banks would solve the problem with unlimited liquidity.
it was announced on 14.09. What happened this week was a reaction to upcoming tenders.
The ECB announced in its press release on 15.09.2011 that there will be three more tenders which include the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank.
tender
exercise date
maturity date
12. October 2011
13. October 2011
5. January 2012
9. November 2011
10. November 2011
2. February 2012
7. December 2011
8. December 2011
1. March 2012
Here is the link to the calendar where you can see when the next market regulation will be performed for 2011, 2012 and 2013.
Here is a history of what is held
We have to find out what this means and how to use it.
Week 37
Europe - Greece
If the next tranche of bailout money for Greece is not paid, many large banks will need money immediately.
TheGermangovernmentis already losing out on bailing out banks if the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank do not support Greece.
OnceGreece becomes insolvent other countries like Italy could be contaminated.
A big drop in the priceof government bonds will also force German banks into a squeeze where billions are needed.
The government considers it important to expand the capacity of the EFSF in time to be able to support banks in the future.
Parliaments haveyet to approvethe proposals.
In Germany, the Bundestag will vote on September 29th to approve the expansion of the fund.
There are problems with political resistance in Slovakia and with Wednesday's elections also in Austria.
The reorganisation could, however, come into force if the parliaments of both states have not yet agreed. The approval of the countries that are responsible for 90% of the guarantees for the rescue fund is required.
The so-calledtroika of the IMF, the European Central Bank and the EU are already aligning their timetable so that a bank rescue would be possible.
At the earliest at the beginning of next week(19.09.2011)they will start with the checking of the recently introduced austerity measures in Greece, arrival at Aten on 14th.09.2011.
According to currency commissioner Olli Rehn, a summary of the passed or failed reforms and the next eight billion for Greece is expected at the end of September.
Until then, the EFSF should be given its new powers to rescue banks.
The fact that options for a rescue of Greece, the schedule of the troika and a restructuring of the EFSF are being explored by the German government shows how openly that is being discussed.
The participants are now evidently trying to limit the risk for the banking sector. Also Greek institutions could be helped in case of state bankruptcy.
Merkel and Sarkozy want tokeep the euro for the Greeks and the primary goal is to reach an agreement with Greece and not risk insolvency,which has been a threat since mid-October.
Thenext tranche willrequirean economic effort by the Greeks. The Greek government decided at the weekend to introduce a taxon non-living assets, but this does not satisfy the troika.
Ina telephone conference which took place in the evening of 14.09.2011 , Angela Merkel and the French president Nicolas Sarkozy, requested the Prime Minister George Papandreou to ensure that all
reforms are carried out accurately and effectively as expected by the international community.
The government spokesman in Athens said after the meeting that the country will fulfil all its obligations.
Merkel and Sarkozy explained that the future of the Greeks in the euro zone.
What will be the additions to last week?
USDCHF. In my opinion, a "double zigzag [W]-[X]-[Y] pattern is forming" If, (key phrase) my assumption, is correct, then, on Monday price will drop. I will be selling on Monday.
USDCHF. In my opinion, a "double zigzag [W]-[X]-[Y] pattern is forming" If, (key phrase) my assumption, is correct, then, on Monday price will drop. I will be selling on Monday.
I have this representation option:
Note the "roughness" of my chart before the current trend and the relative "smoothness" of the price as it moves along the trend.
On 15.09.2011, at the opening of the American session, the market changed dramatically.
If Margarita would be online, we could ask what exactly happened and what the consequences would be.
While Rita is resting, I would not extrapolate the movement before the 15th to the period after the 15th.
Respectively, while - we grow.
Hence my predictions (if anyone takes them as such), strictly speaking, are not predictions at all. I like the Karachay wisdom: "The question: What day is the best in life. The answer is: today!". All my "curveballs" are simply trying to keep track of the market as it is here and now. What will happen on Monday - I don't know. Simply, I'm holding an open long position right now and I don't see any reason to close it yet.
Germany
Finance Minister Schäublesees no problem toexpand the fund's capacity in parliament.
Over the weekend, in an interview with the Bild am Sonntag newspaper, Schaeuble said that even without the votes of the opposition, the result should be positive.
And he also stressed that without a positive result, there will be no troika payment.
calendar
September 29 - German Bundestag is due to hold a vote
October 12 first unplanned 84-day tender
next tranche for Greece is postponed for October 14
I have this version of the view:
Note the "roughness" of my chart before the start of the current trend and the relative "smoothness" of the price as it moves along the trend.
The 15.09.2011, at the opening of the American session, has dramatically changed the nature of the market.
If Margarita would be online, we could ask what exactly happened and what the consequences would be .
While Rita is resting, I would not extrapolate the movement before the 15th to the period after the 15th.
Respectively, while - we grow.
Hence my predictions (if anyone takes them as such), strictly speaking, are not predictions at all. I like the Karachay wisdom: "The question: What day is the best in life. The answer is: today!". All my "curveballs" are simply trying to keep track of the market as it is here and now. What will happen on Monday - I don't know. Just, right now I'm holding an open long position and I don't see any reason to close it yet.
It's hard to argue with you...))) My "curves" are trying to track the market, as it is here and now, but from H4 position. What will happen on Monday - I do not know. Just, now I hold an open SELL position and do not see any reason to close it yet....)))
Noted...))).... on the "fidgetiness" of the price movement, before the current trend and the relative "smoothness" of the price when it moves along the trend, unfortunately, I must disappoint you, such a construction in the movements is acceptable, and does not carry the meaning you put into it. You can easily see this by looking at wave analysis theory, denied by most, and it will become clear how market researchers, since the 1930s, have described and explained this phenomenon.
The expectation of a decline in the exchange rate, is based not only on my understanding of TA, but also on the info that 21.09.2011 (Fed meeting), and 29.09.2011.(deadline for the second aid package to Athens and the EFSF amendments), it is unlikely there will be any serious upward movements before those dates, more likely to drift lower and wait....))))
Lastly, market cyclicality (changes in trend directions) is measured in a myriad of ways, from the square "9" and the elephant migration to Limpopo, to calendar dates and "gatherings" of the powers that be. I have chosen the calendar dates of "gatherings" as a reference point.
Correspondingly, for the time being - downwards...)).
Michael, I can't really argue with you either :)
But the ball is in my court, so not to share my views in response to yours would be simply unseemly :) I am sharing.
I think it's not good to make assumptions on H4 about how the price will move in a few trading hours. I, in that sense, have complete uncertainty on H4:
(As you see, even two opposite positions have closed in one point)
Note: there is a global trendline at the bottom and a local one at the top, which is not supported by a rebound from the global one. Correspondingly, I suppose that we are witnessing a downward correction against the background of the global uptrend. Herewith, according to the data of the previous two trading days I suppose this correction will be finished, and that is why I suppose the growth will resume within the next day or two. On М30 it is much easier: there are SL and TP levels, breakthrough of which will confirm or refute my assumptions.
Under the global trend is understood a classical trend line (by Sperandeo), in relation to which all market points of the whole trading history are on one side - from above, or from below.