Is any prediction doomed? - page 5

 
denis_orlov:

That's why I love this forum - it's easy to see who can and gets the profits

:)

Those who can see straight away are not forecasters, and those above are clairvoyants.

It is easier for them to live. I envy them from the bottom of my heart.

:)
 
LeoV:
+1. Predicting an instrument from the data of the instrument itself (e.g., predicting euro-dollar from euro-dollar data) is a futile matter. It's a well-known fact, researched and confirmed 10 years ago. So it makes no sense to step on a rake or try to re-invent the wheel, ....)))
A fact? Researched? Verified?

By whom? When? Where? -- Is it the ultimate truth?

Someone, to the best of their knowledge, has studied, calculated, concluded (not to mention possibly puffed up and thrown something in young minds) -- done an honest job. But any such study has its limits of applicability. If you mindlessly extrapolate beyond the boundaries of applicability... And then it's "toothless old ladies spreading it around"...

.

about it "a useless business" -- that's what "men of science" said about electricity, and about magnetism, and about experiments of aeronautics, and in general about everything unknown to these "men of science" and which such "men of science" do not comprehend...
 
sergeyas:

Those who can do it, make the forecasts and profit.

Those who can't - let the prediction be impossible.

once again about skill
 
FAGOTT:


Why? If there is a single predictive profitable TS, then it is not doomed.

Otherwise we're about to have a 120-page conversation about "What is 'forecasting'?

and good ;)
 
denis_orlov:
Once again, about skill.

Your manifesto is understandable and enlightening (in all seriousness).

It's all(smarts) to keep in mind, of course.

Just hardly a reason to go out and shoot yourself.

Especially if a good dinner awaits.

 

5 pages written and nothing on the subject

 
AlexeyFX:

5 pages written and nothing on the subject

Did you expect more than that from yet another flub site?
 
AlexeyFX:

5 pages written and nothing on the subject

Maybe it's an old topic.

Yes and the topic is about which side of the egg is the right one to peel.

There's a thread next to it about the same thing.

There are so many similar ones.

 
sergeyas:

Your manifesto is understandable and enlightening (in all seriousness).

It's all(skills) you have to keep in mind, of course.

Only it's hardly a reason to go and shoot yourself.

Especially if a good dinner awaits.

Shoot yourself, of course not. But to think about the relevance of the concepts of skill or ability in relation to fora is a good reason.

Bon appétit. :)

 
avtomat: Fact? Researched? Confirmed?

Yes

By whom? When? Where?

By a lot of experienced people who are involved in the finnancial markets. I'm not ready to give you their complete list.

avtomat : Is it the absolute truth?


Yes

avtomat : Someone, to the extent of his knowledge, has studied something, calculated, came to a conclusion (not to mention the fact that he may have stuffed something up and injected it into an uninformed mind) - he has done a fair job. But any such study has its limits of applicability. If you mindlessly extrapolate beyond the boundaries of applicability... And then, "and toothless old women spread them around"...


The word 'someone' is not appropriate here)))) Of course, anything can be questioned - it just won't do any good.

avtomat : about it "it is a useless business" - so spoke "scientific men" both about electricity, and about magnetism, and about experiments of aeronautics, and in general about everything unknown to these "scientific men" and not comprehended by these "scientific men"...


Here's the thing. If everything was questioned, then science would not have moved on, because there are a million ways of making a stone hammer, and if every time you question the found way of making this hammer, then mankind would still be searching for the best way to make a stone hammer.

With respect to financial markets - 10 years ago, traders drew charts of currency movements on a millimeter, if you know what it is, then, if you call into question the more sophisticated methods of communication, we are still drawing charts on a millimeter.

Applied to colour. If you are not aware that this fact has long been researched and abandoned, it does not mean that it is not.