Is any prediction doomed? - page 29

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FAGOTT:


I have to go through the labyrinth of your brain: do you really have a degree in mathematics? Even for a semester?

You have a CU. You run it through history. You get a result. Then you change the parameter. You run it again and get a result. Then you change the parameter, run it through the history and get a result. Then you choose the optimal parameter based on the results.

Now, pay attention to a question! Can you run through the history of your junction crossings first the strategy of crossing the red light only, then the strategy of crossing the yellow light only, and then the strategy of crossing the green light only and select the optimum of them?

Don't worry and take your time - think carefully!

So where is it easier to assess probabilities - financial markets or crossroads?

In this regard, it is important to clarify that once we have achieved the optimal parameters of the TS, can we now assume that it is predicting, albeit on historical data, price movements?
 
tara:

... and the prediction on the other :)

Well it is. Some forecasters predict rain, others predict it.

And no matter how much PapaYozh searches the Russian language dictionaries, it has no effect on the likelihood of rain.


 
Avals:


Let's say we detected a pattern in 2008 that it has been profitable to buy EURUSD for the last 8 years. A lot of deals according to some system - the statistics is representative. Does it mean that in next years we should also buy EUR or it is an accident based on the global up-trend, which may very well end?

"Take it and trade it" often leads to disappointing results. The question is the correct interpretation of statistics, which is often a very difficult task.

I think since centuries have not been able to find, even outline, a pattern in the financial markets, then globally it does not exist. The market is too perfect to allow anyone to unravel its patterns. Rather, we are only allowed to look for possible market errors and call them "patterns" as we understand them. The concepts of market and regularity are incompatible, otherwise there would be no market. Apparently, we can only talk about trends, probably in a short-term context. I sometimes ask myself: is it possible to predict the trajectory of a chased car? Isn't this situation similar to the market, where we chase the price?
 
yosuf:
I think because over the centuries they have not been able to find, even outline, a pattern in the financial markets, then globally it does not exist.
Ask yourself the question: if you had found something like this, would you share it with anyone? If so, why would you do it?
 
AlexeyFX:
Ask yourself this question: If you found something like this, would you share it with anyone? If so, why?
You wouldn't be able to keep it a secret for long anyway, or that individual would reveal himself otherwise, by excessive loosening of the market, which is not the case. A man with his greed will never rest, even if he makes all the money, then give him power!
 
yosuf:
Still it would not have been possible to keep it a secret for long, or this individual would have shown himself otherwise, by excessive loosening of the market, which is not the case. A man with his greed will never rest, even if he makes all the money, then give him power!
Horror! That's how nasty, greedy people are!
 
For me personally the rule is 100% working: it is impossible to predict the market. it is possible to make money, which is what i have been trying to do for the last 4 years. only in the last year i have been getting more clear, but i keep getting frustrated.
 
maryan.dirtyn:
For me personally the rule is 100% working: you cannot predict the market... you can make money, which is what I've been trying to do for the last 4 years.
That's why it's going so hard. The rule is wrong.
 
maryan.dirtyn:
For me personally, the rule is 100% working: you cannot predict the market... you can earn, which I have been trying to do for the last 4 years.
When you are trying to earn, subconsciously you are already predicting profit, you just do not want or do not want to admit it.
 
yosuf:
Still it would not have been possible to keep it a secret for long, or this individual would have shown himself otherwise, by excessive loosening of the market, which is not the case. A man with his greed will never rest, even if he makes all the money, then give him power!

It is not clear. Why can't it be kept secret for long? Making money doesn't have to be accompanied by a shake-up of the market. And not all people are greedy; I, for example, do not need much, I have enough.
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