Is any prediction doomed? - page 14
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The franc is highly oversold now. Moreover, the franc is oversold so much, that I wouldn't make conclusions about buying it on Monday, because its behavior doesn't fit any economic considerations. Personally, I would prefer to wait out of the market, and then on Tuesday-Wednesday, we'll "look and see". But this is MY analysis, MY forecasts and MY vision of the market, the results of this analysis with all their profits and losses will also be mine.
This is about something else. Multicurrency analysis and, as a consequence, forecasting the behaviour of several instruments actually has a basis in purely economic considerations, aligning at certain points in time fundamental movements, which is exactly what we are seeing in the behaviour of the franc right now.
Again, don't be so categorical...
Understand, you are essentially proposing to analyse each instrument individually for overbought/oversold, so what do multicurrency "alignments" have to do with it? They can go unaligned for years at all.
Yes, a correction will start sooner or later, but it will also happen for each instrument separately, although, at the same time, for all of them at the same time.
The question is, what is the difference, whether we will detect a reversal on one pair or on several at once? What is the advantage? Apart from unnecessary additional loading of the depo, I do not see any rational reason.
Wrong. The degree of non-stationarity is measurable, and this allows one to correct the probabilistic estimates by making them meaningful. The proof of their meaningfulness in the non-stationary case, by the way, is constructed by means of the main laws of classical TV.
Evidence of adjustment to what? The non-stationarity of the market? Well, well, well, I'd be interested to see how such a proof is made for a process that mathematicians can't even describe properly.
Avals, correctly answered. Mathematicians described it all long ago. Certainly not in textbooks.
Proof of adjustment of what? Non-stationarity of the market? Well, well, well, I'd be interested to see how such a proof of content can be found for a process that mathematicians can't even describe properly.
All right, enough with the quibbling. Let's get back to the main issue - the gap between finding patterns and predicting.
You have found a pattern, how can you use it to trade without predicting? How? How do you "just use it"?
"Generally speaking, predicting in financial markets is a useless business. Only searching for patterns....." - I do not understand this phrase at all. Isn't the forecasting based on finding and exploiting the patterns found?
Understand, you are essentially proposing to analyse each instrument individually for overbought/oversold, so what do multicurrency "alignments" have to do with it? They can go unaligned for years at all.
Yes, a correction will start sooner or later, but it will also happen for each instrument separately, although, at the same time, on all of them at the same time.
The question is, what is the difference, whether we will detect a reversal on one pair or on several at once? What is the advantage? Apart from unnecessary additional loading of the depo, I do not see any other rational reason.
OK, enough of the quibbling. Back to the main question - the gap between finding a pattern and predicting.
You have found a pattern, how can you use it to trade without predicting? How? How do you "just use it"?
OK, enough of the quibbling. Let's get back to the main issue - the gap between finding patterns and forecasting.
You have found a pattern, how can you use it to trade without predicting? How? How do you "just use it"?
"Generally speaking, predicting in financial markets is a useless business. Only searching for patterns....." - I do not understand this phrase at all. Isn't the forecasting based on finding and exploiting the patterns found?
The question is probably about distinguishing patterns from pseudo-laws. Like the classic example of teachers of statistics - the correlation between the number of babies born and the stork population :)