FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Episode 5: July 2011) - page 67
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OK, put a stop at 1.41, left the position to buy, we'll see.
1.408.
Oh! Now, when 1.415 hits, we'll go far to the south.
That's the sense of bypass trawling ))))
That's where the North puts its bai there, grab a moose and you'll be biting your elbows when we go up.
11.07.2011 10:55:25
The risks of EUR/USD falling below support at 1.40 in the coming months have been growing more and more significantly lately. As a matter of fact we can say on Monday morning that the subject of the debt crisis in Europe has developed significantly. At least now we see two new ideas or &lquo;bogeys» that may force EUR/USD pair to break down the price range of 1.40-1.46/1.47.
Greece — default after all?!
Everything goes to the fact that the hire purchase or «soft restructuring» of the Greek debt, which, by the way, was considered the least painful a few weeks ago proposed by the French banks, is gradually losing its relevance and, apparently, will not be implemented. So, today in Brussels they are going to discuss a new scenario for a way out of the current debt crisis, which would involve Greece defaulting on some of its debt securities in order to eventually bring the overall level of Greek debt down to an acceptable level. Actually this kind of aspiration of European leaders can be driven by the formula «...sell EUR/USD on expectations of a classic Greek default...».
Let's add that this kind of rumors are actively cultivated in the market by a number of fresh publications in WSJ and FT, which noticeably increase interest to «short» positions in EUR/USD.
Italy — SOS?!
The second no less interesting story, which visited everyone last morning — is the speculations that Italy may also be involved in the current debt crisis in Europe, so it's time to think about its bailout as well. In this case it is trite to refer to the publication in the German newspaper Die Welt, that for the purpose of reinsurance and possible prevention of any crisis phenomena in Italy the Euro stabilisation fund should be doubled to EUR 1.5 trillion. Some also point out that ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet, responsible for coordination of finance ministers Jean-Claude Juncker and EU commissioner Olli Rehn were invited to a basically ordinary meeting between the EU president and the EU commissioner.
The main problem for the euro in this case is that we can see only possible scenarios in Europe, as well as unflattering rumors for the single European currency, but we also lack of specificity on this issue. And many people now understand that uncertainty around Greece may last until at least September and that could be a bigger risk for the euro than a default itself.
We should add, that in the current situation a confident closing of EUR/USD pair below 1.4150 might be a signal that the &lquo;side trend comes to its logical end, and a new summer low for the Euro is waiting for us.
Konstantin Bochkarev, Head of analytical department of Admiral Markets.
The Admiral Markets experts' opinions are given for information purposes only and do not constitute a direct recommendation to buy (or sell) or take any other actions on financial markets.
Previous: Forex: ADP is good, NFP is ... ?
http://www.fxtrade.ru/fundamental-analysis/11.07.2011-eurusd-italiya-greciya-sos
The euro fell after German publication Die Welt reported that the ECB is looking for ways to increase the size of the bailout fund, including a potential bailout for Italy.
According to the German source, the size of the fund could be doubled to E1.5 trillion ($2.13 trillion) to cover the crisis in Italy. The Financial Times quoted anonymous sources as saying that EU leaders are ready to accept the inevitability of a default on some Greek bonds.
"Italy is a very large economy and we could really see the crisis affecting that country, so the ECB, the EU and the IMF need to come up with another plan to deal with it," said Kun Guo of ANZ National Bank Ltd. "These concerns continue to put pressure on the single currency."
America's largest aluminium producer Alcoa Inc. will traditionally be the first company from the Dow Jones Industrial Average component to open a new quarterly reporting period today. The company is expected to report second-quarter profit growth of 13%.
The single currency is retreating on Monday, trading near 2-week lows against the dollar and yen on fears that EU debt problems are spreading to Italy, while officials have yet to agree on the structure of a bailout mechanism for Greece.
The euro fell after German publication Die Welt reported that the ECB is looking for ways to increase the size of the bailout fund, including a potential bailout for Italy.
According to the German source, the size of the fund could be doubled to E1.5 trillion ($2.13 trillion) to cover the crisis in Italy. The Financial Times quoted anonymous sources as saying that EU leaders are ready to accept the inevitability of a default on some Greek bonds.
"Italy is a very large economy and we could really see the crisis affecting that country, so the ECB, the EU and the IMF need to come up with another plan to deal with it," said Kun Guo of ANZ National Bank Ltd. "These concerns continue to put pressure on the single currency."
America's largest aluminium producer Alcoa Inc. will traditionally be the first company from the Dow Jones Industrial Average component to open a new quarterly reporting period today. The company is expected to report second-quarter profit growth of 13%.
I.e. Euro + 1000pp trading plan, Bye-bye ? Long live the inverse wolf!
Here's the North putting his bai there, grab a moose and you'll be biting your elbows when we go up.
He knows the harvest festival is coming soon)))
He knows the harvest festival is coming soon)))