Any strategy works as long as only one investor knows about it

New comment
 

Technical analysis studies market behaviour. I suggest we consider the reverse: the effect of technical analysis on market behaviour.

Logical proof.

1. Suppose that an investor - let's call him Investor1 - has guessed that if you buy at Moment1 and sell at Moment2, it will yield a profit of 1%. Moment1 and Moment2 can be based on any indicators. For simplicity we will take the following - Investor1 discovered that if he bought at 12:00 and sold at 13:00 he could get 1% profit on average.


2. investor1 quietly invests and receives 1% every day.

3. investor 1 tells Investor 2 - now they both start buying at 12:00 and selling at 13:00.

4. Even with not very large amounts, it will turn out that if they jointly place buy orders at 12:00, and thereby inflate the price - it is already more difficult to buy at the "normal" price. The same at 13:00 - they have to sell together, which drives the price down - it is more difficult for two to sell at the "normal" price at which they would sell at one.

5. As a result, it turns out that it is better to place bids not at 12:00 and 13:00, but a little earlier, at 11:59 and 12:59. Investor 1 did so, and made a profit close to p.p. 1-2, and Investor 2 probably even lost, because he had to buy more expensive than Investor 1 and sell cheaper than Investor 1. The bigger the volumes invested by Investor 1, the bigger the loss of Investor 2.

6. Investor 2 starts buying/selling at 11:58 and 12:58. Gradually, the game is ahead until the indicator - the idea of "buy at 12:00, sell at 13:00" ceases to work at all.

7. this will happen to any indicator. Because the essence of any indicator is to show when to buy and when to sell. If the "crowd" follows this indicator, there will always be "the smartest" one, who will make everything one step faster, making the crowd buy more than he does and sell cheaper.
For example, a bank with a fast connection to the exchange or Forex will buy large volumes seconds before the POPULAR indicator is triggered, showing what to buy. When the "crowd" starts buying - it will already be an uptrend - the bank will sell its volumes - and get income, precisely at the expense of the "crowd" following the classic indicator.

8. In the stock market, if someone has earned, then someone has lost. Everyone can not make money on the fluctuations, the stock market does not print money, but only redistributes the existing

In Forex the sums moving the market have to be much bigger than in the MICEX, but if the strategy is profitable, both investors will increase the volume until they come to a competition. In popular strategies, the amount will grow very quickly, negating the essence of the strategy.

Can the analysis be profitable?

Yes, if a unique indicator or strategy is used which no one else knows about.

 
May I ask what you 'smoke'? ))
 

I am happy to answer any constructive criticism.

I have experience of working on MICEX, RTS and Forex.

 
You know the saying - one man is no man's land? It also applies to the market.) Only a team can make something worthwhile and work all the time, and even if many people know about it, nothing will change in the market, there is enough money for everyone.
 
NeoNeuro:
Logical proof.


and if both investors speculate entered into a state of collusion and hired a racketeer (moderator:) who does not allow you to buy at a better price

what then?

 
NeoNeuro:
Can theanalysis be profitable?

Yes, if you use a unique indicator or strategy that no one else knows about.

I will be happy to answer any constructive criticism.

I have experience in Forex, MICEX, RTS, mql.

And of course you are here for the big secret to share it (your indicator (trading system)) with us ...
 
NeoNeuro:
Logical proof.
7. this will happen with any indicator. Because the essence of any indicator is to show when to buy and when to sell. If the "crowd" follows this indicator, there will always be the "smartest" one who will make everything one step faster, forcing the crowd to buy more expensive than him and sell cheaper.
Can the analysis be profitable?
Yes, if a unique indicator or strategy is used, which no one else knows about.


By this logic, investor1 and investor2 are the smart ones and the rest are the 'crowd'. Somehow, this doesn't make much sense...

I think so. If most sell, prices go down, if most buy, prices go up. Conclusion, the more investors sell at the same time, the more likely it is that prices will actually go down.

 
NeoNeuro:
Logical proof.
boo-boo-boo ...
7. This will happen to any indicator. Because the essence of any indicator is to show when to buy and when to sell.

hmm... are you serious? given your experience? the indicator shows when to buy or sell, i.e. on history, but alas, it cannot tell you anything in the future

If they knew about it, that's it.

Anything good on how to rob a bank in the comfort of your own home? Or another topic about manic depression with a persecution complex? :)

ZS: at least give me some screenshots to make it convincing.

 
NeoNeuro:

I am happy to answer any constructive criticism.

I have experience in Forex, MICEX, RTS, mql.


You should not have said that here ... You will not be understood here. )))

Everyone here is exchanging information with each other. So all this information when passed on to another becomes useless for trading. But there is a positive - the implementation of the same idea by two different people will be different. So, if you do not post your "grail" here, but discuss it, it will work.

 
NeoNeuro:
Logical proof.

1. Suppose that an investor - let's call him Investor1 - has guessed that if you buy at Moment1 and sell at Moment2, it will yield a profit of 1%. Moment1 and Moment2 can be based on any indicators. For simplicity, we take the following - an investor discovered that if he buys at 12:00 and sells at 13:00, he can get 1% profit on average.

Investor 1 quietly invests and receives 1% every day.

3. investor 1 tells Investor 2 about it - now they both start buying at 12:00 and selling at 13:00.

4. Even with not very large amounts, it will turn out that if they jointly place buy orders at 12:00, and thereby inflate the price - it is already more difficult to buy at the "normal" price. The same at 13:00 - they have to sell together, which drives the price down - it is more difficult for two to sell at the "normal" price at which they would sell at one.

5. As a result, it turns out that it is better to place bids not at 12:00 and 13:00, but a little earlier, at 11:59 and 12:59. Investor 1 did so, and made a profit close to p.p. 1-2, and Investor 2 probably even lost, because he had to buy more expensive than Investor 1 and sell cheaper than Investor 1. The bigger the volumes invested by Investor 1, the bigger the loss of Investor 2.

6. Investor 2 starts buying/selling at 11:58 and 12:58. Gradually, the game is ahead until the indicator - the idea of "buy at 12:00, sell at 13:00" ceases to work at all.

7. this will happen to any indicator. Because the essence of any indicator is to show when to buy and when to sell. If the "crowd" follows this indicator, there will always be "the smartest" one, who will make everything one step faster, making the crowd buy more than he does and sell cheaper.
For example, a bank with a fast connection to the exchange or Forex will buy large volumes seconds before the POPULAR indicator is triggered, showing what to buy. When the "crowd" starts buying - it will already be an uptrend - the bank will sell its volumes - and get income, precisely at the expense of the "crowd" following the classic indicator.

8. In the stock market, if someone has earned, then someone has lost. Everyone cannot make money from fluctuations, the stock market does not print money, it only redistributes existing money.

Can the analysis be profitable?

Yes, if you use a unique indicator or strategy that no one else knows about.


ADVERTISING IS GOOD!!!

On the subject, the answer is: Bullshit. BOO-HA-HA-HA-HA...

 
NeoNeuro:

I am happy to answer any constructive criticism.

I have experience in Forex, MICEX, RTS, mql.

Is mql a new stock exchange?
1234567
New comment
Reason: