Strategic foresight systems - page 11

 
Farnsworth:
I don't really get it, the days are full of markings and it's not interesting, and there's a shortage of them on the watch? We would have to match the scale. How about retraining for time? :о)


No, there isn't a shortage. I'm interested in looking at the structures on the M1, M5, M15, taking them apart "racking my brains", "What is this model? And Why is it like that?"

I have been doing this for 5 years and I have started to get the first results, I am pleased and interested....)))))

But if you need it, no problem, in the evening I will post charts of the TF you need with a detailed view of the situation from a VA position.

 
Zet:


No, it's not a deficit. I am interested in watching the structures on M1, M5, M15 and parsing them, "What is this model? And Why is it like that?"

I have been doing this for 5 years and I have started to get the first results, I am pleased and interested....)))))

But if you need it, no problem, I'll post charts of the TF you want in the evening with a detailed view of the situation from a VA perspective.

I didn't mean it that way. Just trying to explain for myself your phrase "...but it's not interesting...".

In the evening I will post charts of the TF you need with a detailed view of the situation from a VA position.

this is especially interesting.

 
Quote Current trend type Starting date of the current trend Length of current trend till the moment of the forecast (days) Deviation in pips to the moment of the forecast identification problem 24.02
(%)
25.02 (%)
AUDJPY ascending 01.27 20
35.2 40.9
AUDUSD downward 02.17 5
! 38.3 45.8
CHFJPY rising 01.19 11
11.6 9.2
EURCHF downward 02.11 10
7.6 3.6
EURGBP downward 01.27 21
29.9 40.9
EURJPY ascending 02.04 15
25.1 28.6
EURUSD rising 02.15 7
47.5 39.9
GBPCHF downward 02.14 9
32.2 16.4
GBPJPY going up 01.28 18
19.6 28.3
GBPUSD ascending 02.14 8
35.9 33.3
NZDUSD downward 02.02 17
18.8 23.0
USDCAD downward 02.09 10
29.8 30.6
USDCHF downward 02.14 9
24.4 10.0
USDJPY rising 02.03 17
18.7 33.0
 
Farnsworth:
Quote Current trend type Starting date of the current trend Length of current trend till the moment of the forecast (days) Deviation in pips to the moment of the forecast identification problem 24.02
(%)
25.02 (%)
AUDJPY ascending 01.27 20
35.2 40.9
AUDUSD downward 02.17 5
! 38.3 45.8
CHFJPY rising 01.19 11
11.6 9.2
EURCHF downward 02.11 9
7.6 3.6
EURGBP downward 01.27 20
29.9 40.9
EURJPY ascending 02.04 14
25.1
EURUSD ascending 02.15 7
47.5
GBPCHF decreasing 02.14 8
32.2
GBPJPY rising 01.28 17
19.6
GBPUSD ascending 02.14 8
35.9
NZDUSD decreasing 02.02 16
18.8
USDCAD downward 02.09 10
29.8
USDCHF downward 02.14 8
24.4
USDJPY going up 02.03 16
18.7
no forecast over 50%? or is it 18.7% probability of reversal and 81.3% probability of decrease (waiting for reversal 80.30)
 
Tantrik:
or is it 18.7% probability of reversal and 81.3% probability of decrease (waiting for reversal at 80.30)?

There are several reasons:

(1) It is the second day of testing after fixing, and reversals do not happen every day in fact.

(2) There is a feature of rationing:

  • 0%- the probability that the sum of increments on the forecast horizon will change the trend is insignificant, it is not strictly zero, but it can be neglected
  • 50-60% trend is about to start.
  • 100% the new trend (in relation to the old one), has definitely started and this figure tells almost about the missed start of the trend change. It is too late to decide on a trend change at this point (within the 5-7 trading day horizon), but again not a fact, new data will be required.

(3) You may be right, we should normalise in another way, I will think about it

PS: could you explain the technical term "usd/yopn"

 
Farnsworth:

PS: could you clarify the technical term "usd/yopn"

I think it is USD\JPY =))
 
Farnsworth:

PS: could you clarify the technical term "usd/yopn"

USDJPY
 

ahhh got it :o) says it's going up a bit, but apparently there's still a relatively long wait (the other day). But that's according to my system. (Forecasting horizon is 5 working her).

PS: just in case. Don't trust me to make any predictions right now. I really hope the accuracy will improve, but for some time. In parallel, I'm working on this part. I think that not all the errors associated with simply being attentive have yet to be fished out.

 
Tantrik:
USDJPY

I have yet to thoroughly test the trend classification system. According to some indications, this unit is bullshitting. But that's only for the weekend.

 

Hello!

If you are really interested and this is not a joke, I am always happy to discuss the market situation from a VA perspective.

At the current moment, once again, at the current moment, there are two alternatives.

Let's look at the chart

1 (red number on the chart). We assume that a CLIN has formed (Webge 5 - 3 - 5 - 3 - 5 ). What do we know about the wedge? 1 .a wedge can only be 1 major wave in an impulse, a wedge or a zigzag .2 . a correction always begins after the end of a wedge and never a new trend.

what cancels the assumption of a CLINE? Breaking

Low - 1 . 3428 .

What could be the depth of correction in the CLINE? From

62% to78% Fibo.

If the Wedge, there is a

1stwave, what follows? The3rdwave, which is always bigger than the 1stwave, if it is a wedge. etc.

Let's examine the chart

2 (red number on the chart). We assume that a major correction 2 is continuing to form , and part of that major correction is the zig-zag triplet ( zig-zag triplet 3 - 3 - 3 - 3 ), which has one final movement left to form, the wave [z ].

What will confirm our assumption of a triple zig-zag formation? Breakout

Low - 1 . 3428 .

What do we know about the triple zigzag?

1 .As a rule, the triple zigzag is a deep correction in relation to the dominating trend of the older TF.

2 .

The length of wave Z is usually greater than the length of wave XX.

3 . W- Y - Z.waves tend to equal each other in length or duration, possibly via the Fibo coefficient.

Conclusions: What is the price movement for tomorrow? The last moves related to the rise of the pair are left and it should go into a correction. I vote FOR REDUCE.

That seems to be all.

That is basically it. These are my expectations and the reasons why I expect these developments in the market.

As for the more distant future price movement, there are a lot of scenarios on the internet.

If I have not answered all the questions, I will ask more if you do.

Reason: