Technical analysis - A scam for beginners? - page 2
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Yay!
Congratulations, another colleague has woken up from this foolishness, in the form of TA. I do not have MT-state yet, but I have MathCAD-state. No peeping, no optimization (believe me, I work for myself :o). The trades are made at the moment of new bar opening, i.e. the result will be absolutely similar to MT testing by opening prices. This is exactly how will work and it will not change much if the Expert Advisor works properly.
Here is a small test: EURUSD, M5, 1500 bars, 10 points spread. Light gray thin line is a profit status in pips, dark gray step line is fixed profit as of closing of the last order (it is visually seen how the deposit level deviates and how many trades - I made it for myself, it is convenient for analyzing):
The same, but for 50,000 bars
Here is a very brief description of the system https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/129406/page15. The only thing that I "omitted from the story" is a specialized external pattern identification system. This thing works based on Bayesian logic, and accordingly using external data. It is still in development. The most difficult component to implement.
PS: By the way, I managed to increase identification accuracy by 10% using Schnoll's "concept" (information from the same link) on a test period. Just "bluntly" tucking the maximum likelihood method into a "thin structure" instead of the assumed distribution law. Man, it works! But how those clever theorists managed to get hold of it while I was sharing ideas, that's something. :о)
to Richie
Yay!
Congratulations, another colleague has woken up from this foolishness, in the form of TA. I do not have MT-state yet, but I have MathCAD-state. No peeping, no optimization (believe me, I work for myself :o). The trades are made at the moment of new bar opening, i.e. the result will be absolutely similar to MT testing by opening prices. The system will work exactly as and will not change much if the Expert Advisor works properly.
Here is a small test: EURUSD, M5, 1500 bars, 10 points spread. Light gray thin line is a profit status in pips, dark gray step line is fixed profit as of closing of the last order (it is visually seen how the deposit level deviates and how many trades - I made it for myself, it is convenient for analyzing):
The same, but for 50,000 bars
Here is a very brief description of the system https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/129406/page15. The only thing that I "omitted from the story" is a specialized external pattern identification system. This thing works based on Bayesian logic, and accordingly using external data. It is still in development. The most difficult component to implement.
PS: By the way, I managed to increase identification accuracy by 10% using Schnoll's "concept" (information from the same link) on a test period. Just "bluntly" tuck the "thin structure" to the maximum likelihood method instead of the assumed distribution law. Man, it works! But how those clever theorists managed to get hold of it while I was sharing ideas, that's something. :о)
Same question: Are you willing to pay or do you want to pay for free?
Although it looks like
Still a freeloader.
You don't have to be so easy on your shoulders. After all, the man was a participant of the 2010 Championship...
You don't have to be so easy on your shoulders. After all, the man was a participant of the 2010 Championship...
You don't have to be so easy on your shoulders. After all, the man was a participant of the 2010 Championship...
Who?
Have you made any money from this nonsense? A dollar at least?
+1
You don't have to be so quick with that. The man's in the 2010 championship...
I don't quite understand the phrase. What's it supposed to mean? I'm sorry, but the Championship is not an authority. I use successful pammers or good monitoring. Ritzycia doesn't have any of those.
Oh, and you're sure he's on the champion? Under what nickname? You're not confused? There's Rich, but that's not him.
This is the conclusion I came to after spending 4 years studying TA and developing my own systems. Besides, I am well acquainted with several traders who have been trading for 7-10 years. Their conclusions about TA are similar to mine: you cannot make money on Forex with technical analysis.
What does technical analysis mean to you?
Something similar has been discussed on Invest: http://club.investo.ru/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=41168This is the conclusion I came to after spending 4 years studying TA and developing my own systems. Besides, I know well several traders who have been trading for 7-10 years. Their conclusions about TA are the same as mine: you won't make money on Forex market with technical analysis.
I propose to those who do not agree with it, as follows:
Post in this thread the performance of EAs on real or demo accounts that meet ALL of the following conditions:
1. Testing period - at least 3 years;
2. Work with fixed lots (no increase of lots);
3. Duration of each transaction - not less than 1 hour. (Pipswise positions, like those mentioned by Slava, are not taken into account);
4. Absence of methods of trading based on "cunning" capital management - martin, anti-martin, avalanches, etc.;
5. Lack of "peeking" into history.
I suggest that the hams and "clowns" of this forum should "LEAVE" on this thread. I will not respond to any "rejoinders" and flooding - no time or desire. I'm not interested in the stats of those who earn money teaching TA, writing books on TA. I will come back in a week and make final conclusions. For myself, of course.
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I've got a demo account, but it's more than 3 years old. I've got a lot of respect for traders who have the patience to use my hands to trade on it. For 3 years the account grew more than 10 times, the drawdown is of course quite large, but nevertheless the result is good. I've never been used to trade with my forex broker. Of course I don't trade with fixed lots. Why should I trade 3 years with a fixed lot with increasing deposit?
Technical analysis, econometric analysis, statistical analysis... whatever you want to call it, it gives us an idea of what happened. Our job is to look for patterns, because history repeats itself (with a certain probability in each case).
Technical analysis definitely works. What matters is the professionalism of the trader and the ability to properly manage capital (risks).