Probability assessment is purely mathematical - page 6
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
The estimate of the time to reach SL and TP seems to me more convincing for a random walk model with drift.
same author on the probability of reaching the price.
;)
The estimate of the time to reach SL and TR seems to me more convincing for a random walk model with drift.
Let's assume I have one point left before the stop profit is triggered.
And 49 pips before the stop loss is triggered.
How do I estimate the probability that the stop loss will trigger? It's something very complicated...
The whole post is nonsense of some kind. Who says price won't move indefinitely in the designated channel? Is it experience or something? And if SL=0, then what's the probability? Stupefying.
The whole post is nonsense. Who says the price won't move indefinitely in the designated channel? Experience, or what? And if SL=0, then what's the probability? I am stunned.
how do you assess demolition?a priori or a posteriori?
;)
Since the topic of probabilities came up, I wanted to ask a question.
We have two unobservable events, which with some probability (each event has its own probability) "trigger" the same process. How do we calculate the probability of both of these events happening at the same time?
For example, if a dry tree branch breaks with probability 0.6. If a squirrel sits on the branch, the probability is 0.3. What if it is a dry tree and a squirrel is sitting? It's all about the average. But it doesn't make sense. It turns out that if we remove the squirrel, the probability increases :)
A school question, but I'm confused :(
There is no solution. According to the conditions of the problem the probabilities belong to different sets.
If there are 30% dry trees in the forest, it is possible that a squirrel will collapse with a dry branch with 100% probability :)
There is no solution.
already decided:)))
Well, you've got it wrong :)
that's right, that's right. it's classic:)
nope, 72% will only be if the dry and non-dry branch under the squirrel breaks with an equal probability of 0.3)
And elementary logic does suggest that the breakability of branches depends on the dryness :)
nope, 72% will only be if a dry and a non-dry branch under a squirrel breaks with equal probability 0.3)
And elementary logic does suggest that the breakability of branches depends on dryness :)
That's the logic. And the problem condition says: the factors are independent. It also happens that the conditions contradict common sense:)