Thank you all! It looks like I've found my Grail! - page 18
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if reoptimisation is required it is already a road to nowhere...the reason is very simple...when to reoptimise ? ... if you find an answer to this question then overoptimization will not be necessary ... - overoptimize when the profitability of the CU has dropped to 0 or below a certain value. If the CU was bringing 20%/month and its yield started to decrease and reached 1%/month (for example), then it needs to be re-optimized. Why does it need to be reoptimised? There is an answer and over-optimisation is necessary IMHO.
All this to say that I know what I'm talking about...2 years is no indicator...no need to get all euphoric... - so i'm saying the opposite - in most cases testing on history is useless at all
IMHO works all the time - makes a profit on a real account.
The pictures are interesting. But vat question - in the 10 years before the starting point of these pictures, did they give such a result on history? If not - you wouldn't have applied them in real trading during that period. And the TC returns shown are purely theoretical.
i mean i know what i'm talking about... 2 years is no indicator... no need to get all euphoric... - that's the opposite of what I'm saying - most of the time history testing is useless at all
well just don't be surprised that the market will suddenly have the momentum it had 5 years ago and ts will not cope with it...despite the over-optimisation...
we're just speaking a different language... but that's fine - as many people as there are opinions... i've given mine and listened to yours... go on my grail quest ))))))
IMHO works all the time - makes a profit on a real account.
The pictures are interesting. But vat question - in the 10 years before the starting point of these pictures, did they give such a result on history? If not - you wouldn't have applied them in real trading during that period. And the TC returns shown are purely theoretical.
I did not use them on the real - I cannot withstand such drawdowns psychologically... I got used to trading with my hands and tracking pos....charts lying around on my computer recently discovered...
well just don't be surprised that the market will suddenly have the momentum it had 5 years ago and ts will not cope with it...despite the over-optimisation...
we just speak slightly different languages ... but that's fine - as many people as there are opinions... i've given mine and listened to yours... off to continue my quest for the grail ))))))
Maybe it will suddenly appear, maybe it won't. Maybe it will be like in 1985, maybe like in 2000, maybe like 3 years ago.
Anything is possible.
The main problem is that market dynamics are non-ergodic and non-stationary.
Anything is possible.
The Grail Bowl! Finders are not advised to pour barmata and paraffin - lost properties (from the manual ....)
why would a finder need a barmata with lost properties?
And petrol?
Maybe it will suddenly appear, maybe it won't. Maybe it will appear like it did in 1985, maybe like it did in 2000, maybe like it did three years ago.
Anything is possible.
the main problem is that market dynamics are non-ergodic and non-stationary.
Everything can happen.
So...that's the conclusion...if it's possible, why not check with existing history?...I do...
A very bad statistical conclusion emerges from market non-hierogodicity and non-stationarity:
If an economic process is not stationary and ergodic, and even if probability distribution functions can still be computed, these functions are subject to sudden (i.e. unpredictable) changes and the market, unpredictable.
In your case there is a deep dip in the middle of the testing interval.
A very bad statistical conclusion emerges from market non-hierogodicity and non-stationarity:
If an economic process is not stationary and ergodic, and even if probability distribution functions can still be computed, these functions are subject to sudden (i.e. unpredictable) changes and the market, unpredictable.
In your case there is a deep dip in the middle of the testing interval.
I'm not a fan of scientific words (linguist), but everything is correct... this is a simple way of saying change in dynamics... and the TS is just simple and does not take into account all possible factors...