What happened to Doe last night? - page 7

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Reshetov >>:

Достаточно вспомнить ситуацию с Медофф, который в открытую жульничал много лет, несмотря на то, что в SEC на него потоком шли претензии от пострадавших. SEC закрывал глаза на все это, потому что в доле. Но закрывал до поры до времени, т.е. до тех пор, пока Медофф вконец не обогамел не залез в общак к избранным.

Can I have a link to the "long-running stream of claims from victims"? You're not making any sense.

 
Kolya Morzhov snagged an unhooked test cent account which had been in stasis since February 2009. Definitely an event.
 
In reality, all major phenomena are rooted in fundamental causes. Everything else is a trigger. Bernanke blinked the wrong thing, a phibe was reached, a zero in the bid... - all these things. If there are no fundamental reasons - everything recovers. Although ...)))... Of course, this may be very irritating. And even the deposit for some people.
 
Svinozavr >>:
В действительности, все крупные явления упираются в фундаментальные причины. Все остальное - спусковой крючок. Бернанке не так моргнул, фибы какой-нить достигли, с ноликом в заявке ошиблись... - все это частности. Если нет фундаментальных причин - все восстанавливается. Хотя...))) нервы, конечно, попортит изрядно. А кому и депозит.

Bernarke's blinking can still pull the trigger - too many people are looking into his mouth. But fibs are only good for post-facto, when everything is over, to stretch the net and explain everything very coherently. Although goffey goo is still more reliable - it's a time-tested recipe.

 
timbo >>:

Моргание Бернарке ещё может потянуть на спусковой крючок - слишком много народа ему в рот смотрят.

))) That's how I imagined it: Benya opens his mouth, and there's an eye - just like on the dollar, and it doesn't blink that way . (horror.

But fibs are only good for post-facto, when it's all over, to stretch the net and explain everything in a very coherent way. Although goffey goo is more reliable - it's a time-tested recipe.

Maybe, maybe. That's what I'm saying - specifics...

 
As a programmer, I accept the possibility of such a technical failure and a chain reaction. Due to the widespread crisis phenomena, all sorts of safety mechanisms have been built into algorithms everywhere, a reaction to a possible sharp drop in prices and indices. Everyone is overreacting and, in general, the system has become partly unstable. Sooner or later something like this had to happen. Everyone who earns by auto-trading can easily understand it, because some kind of reactions to abnormal situations is implemented in any trading robot, and it usually means either complete withdrawal from the market or opening of positions according to the prepared algorithm.
Yes, everyone is prepared for a fall, but that doesn't mean it will necessarily happen.
 
gip >>:
Как программист вполне допускаю возможность такого технического сбоя и цепной реакции. В связи с повсеместными кризисными явлениями в алгоритмы везде заложили всяческие предохранительные механизмы, реакцию на возможное резкое падение цен и индексов. Все перестраховываются и в общем система стала частично неустойчивой. Рано или поздно что-то такое должно было случиться. Все кто автоторговлей зарабатывают легко это поймут, ведь в любом торговом роботе заложена та или иная реакция на нештатные ситуации и обычно это либо полный выход из рынка, либо открытие позиций по заложенному алгоритму.
Да, все готовы к падению, но это не значит, что оно обязательно будет.

the reaction erased the long-term view of probably many investors

 
gip >>:
Как программист вполне допускаю возможность такого технического сбоя и цепной реакции. В связи с повсеместными кризисными явлениями в алгоритмы везде заложили всяческие предохранительные механизмы, реакцию на возможное резкое падение цен и индексов. Все перестраховываются и в общем система стала частично неустойчивой. Рано или поздно что-то такое должно было случиться. Все кто автоторговлей зарабатывают легко это поймут, ведь в любом торговом роботе заложена та или иная реакция на нештатные ситуации и обычно это либо полный выход из рынка, либо открытие позиций по заложенному алгоритму.
Да, все готовы к падению, но это не значит, что оно обязательно будет.

The only less sensible thing that comes to mind is that the situation developed like this:

1. On the stock exchange computers, everything was normal and uninterrupted. Therefore, the technical index was not triggered and trading was not suspended.

2. Further on the network, which goes to the brokers, either as a result of a failure or deliberately, the upper part of Bid-a stopped broadcasting in the market. For example, packets with this very part were killed by a faulty router.

Only in this case a similar development is possible. I.e. all brokers, whether they are bots or squirrels, see that the spread has fallen towards the bid and stops or margin calls are triggered. They start to take those orders that they can see with slippages or take margin calls. After all, the rules allow taking any bid in the tumbler, not necessarily the most profitable one.

Because technical index is triggered only at sharp price change unconfirmed by volumes of deals, it is not silent on computers of exchange floors - force majeure is not observed, trading volumes are high. Quotes show a collapse. Those who had higher bids at Bid-r, begin to reduce them automatically to more profitable positions. Then the lacking part of the put is displayed on brokers' monitors and the price partially returns to the previous levels.

This seems to be the only scenario where no one notices the cause of a technical failure, because network routers do not log - they automatically kill all suspicious packets, because speed is more important for them than reliability. Reliability is ensured by high-speed switching of route tables over other Internet channels if any router fails to cope with the flow of packets.

Jingo >>:

the reaction which occurred has wiped out the long term view of probably many investors

It would be more correct to say: wiped deposits. With no money to invest, what views can there be? Only a demo to play with.

 
timbo >>:

Из-за фибы? А если посмотреть в хрустальный шар? Внимательно изучить кофейную гущу? Я готов обсуждать реальные факторы, но фибы это к граалеведам и прочим мастерам нетрадиционного секса.

timbo, I didn't say that Fiba is the cause, I just stated the fact of history: after Fiba reached the 26th of April, first small and then large sales. I am not inclined to absolutise Fiba, but people believe in it and trade accordingly. Many of them are even familiar with the Wave Principle, according to which the most probable development of the wave zigzag (5-3-5) goes like this: first the A five, then the B three, correcting A by 61.8%, and then another C five.

What about the other 30 companies on which the DJIA is based? (I think there are 30 of them).
Sergey, that's the interesting part. The glitch is that the index itself can be traded, and in very large volumes. On the other hand, the index is a weighted sum of the quotes of those 30 companies. The sharp fall in the index says it directly: those 30 stocks went down (on average, of course).
What triggered the Black Thursday - the actual fall of the 30 giants that make up the Dow, or the big sell-off in the index - is unclear to me. It seems to me that the very possibility of trading the index as a stand-alone instrument is a gross mistake by the financial authorities, confusing cause and effect. And it is duplicated in all countries.
P.S. It is possible to compile a synthetic index from the stocks of these 30 companies and trade that portfolio. This is fine and does not contradict common sense.
 

Such declines on such volumes could not be caused by failures. Even if the robots went berserk and all the short-term investors mistakenly reacted to the wrong data, this would not happen. Large funds rule at the fund and it takes a long time for them to agree on buying and selling decisions. They do not make decisions based on intraday dynamics. Sell volumes have been determined in advance. Only their trades could fail so all markets at the same time. They were ready to sell this day or this week. One can only guess what was the reason for such friendly selling. Then of course it triggered some panic, margin calls etc. imha

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