Something Interesting in Financial Video February 2015 - page 5

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Sergey Golubev
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newdigital, 2015.02.21 11:16

Nikkei forecast for the week of February 23, 2015, Technical Analysis

The Nikkei as you can see broke higher during the course of the week, slicing through the ¥18,000 level finally. Because of this, it feels as if the market has finally completely and totally broken out and is ready to continue going to the ¥20,000 level. The Bank of Japan continues to add liquidity to the marketplace, and the recent consolidation was simply the market trying to catch its breath after the impulsive move higher from the ¥14,500 level. Because of that, we feel that this market should continue to climb and that any time it pulls back should be thought of as value at this point in time.

Keep in mind that the Japanese yen is a lot weaker than it used to be, and that of course helps the Nikkei as well. It isn’t necessarily weakening at the moment, but the two generally run hand-in-hand and it does appear that perhaps there is a push to break out in many of the Japanese yen related currency pairs. While it hasn’t happened yet, it’s not uncommon for one of these markets to lead the other. Because of this, this move doesn’t surprise us at all.

The Bank of Japan continues a very weak monetary policy, and that should of course continue this market move higher. 20,000 is the next large, round, psychologically significant barrier, so it makes sense that will be where the market aims for. Besides, the previous consolidation area dictates a move to at least ¥19,950, so at that point in time we are close enough.

Pullbacks continue to offer value and support in our opinion, and therefore offer significant value in a market that should continue to outperform most other stock indices around the world. Now that we have broken out, most people will be looking to get into this marketplace, so short-term pullbacks will be the vehicle by which you enter this marketplace. However, we believe that the longer-term traders will just simply be holding onto Nikkei strength as it continues to flex its muscles


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2015.02.21 11:19

S&P 500 forecast for the week of February 23, 2015, Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 initially fell during the course of the week, but found enough support below to turn things back around and form a positive candle. We believe that the S&P 500 breaking above the 2100 level of course is a sign that the market should continue to go higher, and with that we have no interest whatsoever in selling. We believe that the market is in a longer-term uptrend so any time it pulls back, the S&P 500 will simply offer value. Selling isn’t even a thought at this point.



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2015.02.21 11:22

Gold forecast for the week of February 23, 2015, Technical Analysis

The gold markets fell during the course of the week, testing the $1200 level for support. They did in fact find it there, because it is not only a large, round, psychologically significant number, but it is also congruent with an uptrend line. Because of that, the market looks as if it could find buying pressure here, but a break down below the $1200 level would be fairly significant at this point in our opinion. We will wait to see what the weekly candle brings now, and place the proper trade based upon that.

Looking at this chart, one cannot help but notice how choppy the gold markets have been over the longer term. This has been highly influenced by the value of the US dollar rising, but don’t get too hung up on the idea that the US dollar rising automatically hurts gold, quite frankly it can go either way. There have been times in the past where gold has risen right along with the US dollar.

Ultimately, this could be a bit of a reaction to a lack of faith in currency around the world. Quite frankly, it may be that people were beginning to be concerned about the fact that the European Union has to continue to keep its interest rates low, and the value of the Euro continues to fall. This may simply be Europeans getting into the gold markets in general.

Regardless, we are at a crossroads in this particular market and it will be interesting to see how things play out. If we get enough support in this general vicinity, we feel that this could begin a longer-term move higher. Because of this, the longer-term trader is going to have to wait to see what the weekly candle brings, and should be comfortable doing so. After all, the move that we are looking at potentially happening could be a massive one that last four months, if not years. Giving up a few dollars here and there isn’t a big deal on the entry when we are speaking of this type of scenario.



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2015.02.21 11:25

EUR/USD forecast for the week of February 23, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair fell during the week as the market continues to churn between 1.13 on the bottom, and 1.15 on the top. Because of this, it’s going to be very difficult to trade this market from a longer-term perspective, and as a result we feel that is probably just going to be easier to wait for some type of bounce in order to take advantage of value in the US dollar. Ultimately, we have no interest in buying and we believe that this market goes down to the 1.10 handle.



Sergey Golubev
Moderator
108460
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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newdigital, 2015.02.25 13:39

EURUSD Range Survives Yellen and Greece, What Can Break It?

Despite a round of news that reinforced a 'mid-2015' Fed hike forecast, reminded us of impending ECB QE and kept the Greece negotiations off-balance; EURUSD refused to break a range that is little more than 100 points wide. Top news through the past session was Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. In her remarks, carefully chosen language seems to reinforce a scenario where the Fed is preparing the market for a rate hike around the middle of the year. Yet, that scenario seems to be well priced - or at least skepticism to anything but a direct warning is dug in - as the USDollar failed to break its month-long congestion. Cues for a policy-led break are dispersed widely over the coming weeks, so this market dynamic may not prove the spark for our next drive. In the meantime, if risk trends pick up the baton; a moderation move by the S&P 500 can spur a range of opportunities. We look at the Dollar and broader market in today's Trading Video.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
108460
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Something Interesting in Forex Video May 2013

newdigital, 2013.05.03 07:45

This is next short video by Alexander Elder from this seria: First Step to Trading Success: Choose Your Proper Time Frame

Traders often focus on finding one or many complex indicators to use, but Alexander Elder explains that deciding what time frame to analyze is the most important first step. 

 

 


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