The second sacred cow: "Grow profits, cut losses" - page 5
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"Rejoice in losses, grieve in gains... Within reasonable limits, of course" Eric Nyman.
In general, it's such a very "subtle" psychology of trading. So as not to go crazy))) After all, we all know the pain of loss... (money, of course)
But I only close at a certain positive, not before.
...
Well, that's a lot to argue about. It all depends on how we calculate this X, and on the system itself, of course.
I adhere to the opinion that quotes are chaotic (or are made to be so) in between "significant" levels, due to a multitude of players of different levels. Therefore trading with gradual changes in signal strength (position size) is more likely to lead to gradual sinking than to a positive effect. The exceptions are strong trends.
Yes, it all depends on the system, of course... If we start from really important levels (Fibo, channel bounds), then of course, we should open/close deals only at certain points.
If the system is based on market inertia, then we must move away from discrete values, I think. Otherwise it may become too close to the history.
"Rejoice in losses, grieve in gains... Within reason, of course." Eric Nyman.
Is this a "rejoice in punishment, grieve in encouragement" kind of thing ? ;)
Таким образом нужно признать целесообразность торговли по принципу "Ограничивать прибыль и давать убыткам расти" на флетовых котирах!
Теперь главное. Если набрать статистику по чередованию цвета соседних свечей по всем инструментам и на всех ТФ на Форексе, то можно убедится, что рынок носит преимущественно флетовй характер и для построения профитной ТС необходимо придерживаться необычного правила "Ограничивать прибыль и давать убыткам расти"! Откуда же тогда взялось известное и всеми любимое "Ограничивать убытки и давать прибыли расти"? Да, просто до последнего времени, рынки были трендовыми и только с 90-х годов приняли свой нынешний облик. А "неправильный" слоган остался, вводя глупых и доверчивых работяг-трейдеров в заблуждение и приводя к сливу депозитов!
P.S. Приведённые две ТС не являются эквивалентными с точки зрения рисков, которые должен принимать на себя тредер при торговле. При прочих равных условиях, риски для флетовх инструментов много больше, чем для трендовых! Это связано с неограниченными лосями, которые неизбежны при торговле по второму правилу. Поэтому, для выравнивания рисков, придётся уменьшать размеры открываемых позиций, что неприменно приведёт к снижению профитности ТС по сравнению с TC первого типа. Всё это является неизбежным следствием эффективности современных рынков.
Great!
Thank you!
Here's the thing about "strong signal", "medium signal" etc... After all, what is signal strength? Imho, it should be some non-discrete value X, calculated in the program, which can be both positive (signal to buy) and negative (signal to sell). I.e. we kind of calculate the potential at this point. And based on this, we already determine the direction of entry and calculate volumes of transactions (proportionally to X).
For example, we have X= -1, so we open SELL with volume 1.0. Then after some time we have X= -0.6, so we have 0.6 SELL lots remaining in the market, so we close 0.4 lots from the previous order.
I.e. exiting the trade is essentially no different from entering it on the opposite side. There is no "qualitatively different" signal here. The question is only the strength of the signal. And it seems to be qualitatively different only through our perception.
Once we close the position, it means that we believe that the price will not go further. And this means that it will go in the opposite direction with a certain probability. This share of probability is determined by the value of X
I totally disagree.
You're talking about some kind of perfect market that doesn't exist. If the price position was so easy to calculate as 100% sell or 100% buy, do you know how easy it would be for all of us to trade...?)
The thing is that there is no perfect, fair price, the market swings back and forth, and where it was expensive the first time, after a couple of hours it is already cheap, and then suddenly it is expensive again...
So there's no point in talking about a definite unit of potential that rises and falls in line with the price.
_______
For the same reason the second cow is failing... Because today's loss may become tomorrow's sought-after profit and vice versa. An experienced trader knows that they cannot do without drawdowns, because only angels sit on price peaks)).
So the question is always what kind of drawdown you are ready for, and whether you are confident enough in the signal to enter the market and tolerate the drawdown.
Developing a strategy, the signal is quite accurate. Looking for TP to SL ratio.
TP = 10
SL = 30
or maybe increase SL ?
There are profits and then one SL eats up all the profits.
Разрабатываю стратегию, сигнал довольно точный. Ищу соотношение TP и SL.
TP = 10
SL = 30
или может увеличить SL ?
бывает прибыль прибыль, а потом один SL сжирает всю прибыль.
Calculate the stoploss as the maximum deviation from a regression of a given length.
Urain
Can you write the code ? I'll try to put it in the EA
Developing a strategy, the signal is quite accurate. Looking for TP to SL ratio.
TP = 10
SL = 30
or maybe increase SL ?
There are profits and then one SL eats up all the profits.
Optimisation. It will show you exactly.Recommendation - 10 periods of 1 year - then compare the numbers.