Crisis: Don't we care? - page 11

 
KING >> :

no. Real growth=(GDP for the current year/GDP for last year)*100 percent inflation. and there can't be IMHO.

Inflation is calculated by the value of the purchasing basket for the base year and the current year. After inflation is subtracted from current GDP, then inflation-adjusted GDP is divided by base year GDP, and so we get real growth. that is (GDP current/(1+%inflation*100))/GDP base = Real growth.

Well calculate from the formula ) what the growth will be...

 
BARS >> :

Well and calculate by formula ) what the height would be...


I'd plead guilty if it was written like this)

Real growth=(GDP for the current year/GDP for the previous year)*(100 percent inflation, in percent).

 
KING >> :

I would plead guilty if it was written like this)

Real growth=(GDP for the current year/GDP for the previous year)*(100 percent inflation, in percent).

Whatever you calculate... real growth comes out weak )

 

Let's put it this way; roughly speaking...

GDP colo 5% (also base GDP) inflation about 6%

Forum: (GDP current/(1+%inflation*100))/GDP base = real growth.

Получаем: (5/(1+6*100))/5=0,00.... )

 
BARS >> :

Let's put it this way; so geez...

GDP colo 5%(also base GDP) inflation about 6%

Forum: (current GDP/(1+%inflation*100))/GDP baseline = real growth.

Получаем: (5/(1+6*100))/5=0,00.... )

(GDP current/(1+%inflation/100))/GDP base = Real growth. (mixed up)

GDP is not in percentage, take it as 100p base and 120p current. inflation is 6%.

(120/(1+6/100))/120=1.13 Total real growth of 13% p.a.

And with your formula do not finally agree not to be lazy and counted, does not converge.

 
KING >> :

(GDP current/(1+% inflation/100))/GDP base = Real growth. (mixed up)

GDP is not a percentage, take it as 100p base and 120p current. inflation is 6%.

(120/(1+6/100))/120=1.13 Total real growth of 13% p.a.

And with your formula finally do not agree did not get lazy and calculated, does not add up.

12.8 to be exact.

If you take it as an example, it is clear that growth in GDP was 20p

Inflation has eaten up 6% and will be 6% of 120p :-)

And given that GDP usually rarely outpaces inflation, real growth will not be more than 10% on average.

 
BARS >> :

12.8 to be exact.

If we take this as an example it is clear that the growth in GDP was 20p

And inflation ate 6% and will be 6% of 120p :-)

Given that GDP usually rarely outpaces inflation, real growth will not exceed 10% on average.

13.2075% to be exact. You have not calculated it right. The formula (GDP present/GDP base)*(100% inflation) is WRONG. It is impossible to convert /(1+%inflation/100) to *(100%inflation), elementary maths.

As a technocrat, I don't care what's in there or what's out there (that's very crude), as long as the price moves. But in general, it is all very interesting.

 
KING >> :

13.2075% to be exact. You have calculated it wrong. The formula (GDP present/GDP baseline)*(100% inflation) is WRONG. It is impossible to convert /(1+%inflation/100) to *(100%inflation), elementary maths.

I, as a technologist, do not care what's out there (this is very crude), as long as the price moves. And in general it's all very interesting.

Let whoever needs to work out such details... There are different ways of counting.

One thing I realised is that in one year, the real growth will be shallow :-)

 
BARS >> :

Let whoever has to decide such details... There are different ways of counting here.

One thing I understood in a year, the real growth will be small :-)

It will not be small, but small.

And from the looks of it, next year (2009) Russia's GDP will fall. Simply because of the decline in the value of oil.

 

yeah.... Yesterday I bought Euros at 36.25, I thought it was expensive, today I can buy them at 37, so that is Forex for you!

By the way, in Stockholm or Helsinki all exchangers are called FOREX

and the dollar has gone up.... and WM exchangers are empty :(

They say that the dollar will soon hit 40 rubles. Why should you lend money to other countries in this situation?

They'd better buy the ruble to keep the exchange rate at 100/4

What about your predictions?

Reason: