SOME ANALYSIS FIGURES FACTS COMMENTS 2008
Interesting.
By the way, congratulations on the EA being on the first page of the equity ranking ;)
My 5 cents worth of statistics...
7050000.00 - initial balance and equity
6622016.27 - total equity at the end of 1 week
9392.93 - average equity
3154009.07 - total equity of profitable Expert Advisors.
259 - number of profitable Expert Advisors
12177.64 - average equity of profitable experts
2328007.20 - total equity of loss-making Expert Advisors
332 - number of unprofitable Expert Advisors
7012.07 - average equity of unprofitable Expert Advisors
114 - non-starting Expert Advisors
20 - EAs with equity less than 3000
The only comment from me is that 20 Expert Advisors with equity below 3000 for 3 trading days is much higher than 7 at the end of the first trading week last year. The risks are simply exorbitant for many people while trading according to the "brakes were invented by cowards" principle. Sad. Championship monkeys, as timbo will say. We should wait a month and see if we have any steers at all in this championship.
The first couple of weeks of the Championship are a glitz and a kamikaze celebration.
Beautifully said!
I think by the end of the month we will see players in the top 10 who had lots less than 3 at the beginning of CH-08.
now we're seeing risky bids... from 3 to 5 - but it's beautiful!
he who doesn't take risks, doesn't drink!
>> he who does not risk does not drink!
Those who don't take risks are already drunk as hell =))
The risks for many are simply exorbitant, and trading according to the "brakes were invented by cowards" principle. Sad. Championship monkeys, as timbo will say. We have to wait a month and see if we have any stayers at this championship.
What's so sad about it? It's quite a predictable result. It's not a monkey championship, but a joint event. If the entry bar is placed so low, crowds of monkeys are bound to run to the smell of withering forty grand greens. This does not happen at the Olympics or the actual championships, as the monkeys cannot make it through all the preliminary steps.
When and if the organisers want to limit the number of monkeys, they will make arrangements. In the meantime, three months is a long enough period and high market volatility allows us to take more profit in the first three days, but it also forces stop and take profit more often, i.e. forces to increase the number of deals and it is a serious blow for the monkeys.
Of course, it would be a shame if an obvious monkey wins, but it can be considered a victory for statistical analysis methods, which is also a positive result.
Unlikely to win, timbo.
There was a Zonker in Ch-06, if you remember. There were fears that he would win (his max balance was almost equal to Rich's total balance). And Zonker's final result is quite monkeyish.
In Ch-07 was winwin2007 - and the same fears were. Prior to the well-known measures taken around October 3, his Expert Advisor made 114 trades without a single loss. The chance of such an event is really small - about 0.004 (considering monkey probability p as 0.9524 - based on SL/TP=20). Not Abyssinian. The measures have had the desired effect. Statistics of deals returned to normal, i.e. became much closer to the monkey's one: for the next 90 deals 7 lots appeared, and the probability p became much lower. Hee hee.
P.S. My mistake. The real ratio SL/TP of winwin2007 to known measures is (SL-spread)/(TP+spread) ~ (20-2)/(1+2) = 6, and the monkey probability is 0.8571. Especially not abizian (the probability of 114 profitable trades in a series of 114 equals about two hundred million). The man has clearly caught the law, but its practical use by the client is disadvantageous to DC.
Unlikely to win, timbo.
"Unlikely" is not an argument. How close Zonker was to winning is just further confirmation of Monkey Power(TM). I don't remember the details, but if his last trade closed on the plus side, which is 50% probability for Monkey Power, he would be the champion. Such is the fine line of that "unlikely". (In a low voice: "Don't underestimate the possibilities of the Force").
The only hope is that there aren't too many particular monkeys among the championship participants and we won't see Monkey Power(TM) triumph after all.
P.S. I made a mistake. The real ratio SL/TP of winwin2007 to known measures is (SL-spread)/(TP+spread) ~ (20-2)/(1+2) = 6, and the monkey probability is 0.8571. Especially not abizian (probability of 114 profitable trades in a series of 114 equals about two hundred million). The man has obviously caught the law, but its practical use by the client is not profitable for DC.
VinWin is awesome, you have to admit that. Although not exactly what the championship was about.
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Week 1 - or rather the first weekend