Market condition - flat or trend? Which dominates? - page 17
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Worked out clearly, only the discrepancy between the statistics and the reality became clearer.
Again, the 30-point statistic on D1 is an illusion. If you want to cheat yourself, cheat yourself, but don't confuse others.
Worked out clearly, only the discrepancy between the stats and the real one became clearer.
Again, the 30-point statistic on D1 is an illusion. If you want to fool yourself, fool yourself, but don't confuse others.
I have already written about testing on minutes, if you do not want to hear - do not listen, the author of the idea will probably take it into account.
Here, I remembered another very, very scientific definition of a trend or flat market. It is based on a Zig-Zag (ZZ) pattern. It is constructed in the following way:
We take an arbitrary step H, for example, 10 points and the ZZ top is considered formed, if the price moved away from its maximum or minimum value (on the interval from the previous top) by the value larger than H.
Further, the estimation of the average value of its side <Z> is done according to the history data. If the difference <Z>-2H<0 turns out to be less than zero, it means that a flat prevails in the market, it is a rollback and the optimal trading strategy (TS) - is the trading on the pullbacks after the strong price movements Fig. b. If the difference <Z>-2H>0 turns out to be greater than zero, it means that the market is dominated by the trend and the optimal TS - trading along the trend Fig. a.
The red arrows in the figures show the moments of the end of ZZ top formation and the time of entering the position. The direction of position opening coincides with the direction of the arrow. The third option is possible when the difference |<Z>-2H|<Spred in absolute value does not exceed the spread, and then the market is considered efficient and the best TS is to sit on the fence and smoke bamboo. This case, as can be easily guessed, corresponds to a chaotic change in the direction of the red arrows, which connect the endpoints of the formation of the tops of ZZ.
I think I've already written about testing on the minutes.
On the minutes you wrote that you tested 'all day'. That's impressive...
If there really is a problem, state it in detail - with figures and pictures.
My tests have shown that the calculations are correct (with a small margin of error).
Here, I remembered another very, very scientific definition of a trend or flat market.
Well, that's kind of how it is ;) And it is the red arrows that are drawn. And both types of trading are implemented :-P
Well, that's what we seem to have ;) And it is the red arrows that are drawn. And both types of trade are implemented :-P
Well, then I've managed to lay it out very briefly and colourfully! :-))
And which mood dominates the market according to your estimation?
Well, I was able to put it very briefly and colourfully then! :-))
And what mood in the market dominates in your estimation?
Guess =)
50/50
50/50 can be different. Sometimes it is possible to get a little. Did you estimate this "bit" or was it strictly lower than the spread?
I have not counted the spreads, and have not delved into the statistics yet. I have already given figures for EURUSD:
I think I've already written about testing on minutes.
About the minutes you wrote that you tested "all day". That's impressive...
If there really is a problem, state it in detail - with figures and pictures.
My tests have shown that the calculations are correct (with a small margin of error).
Here is the latest example (EURO, M1, 30 points, spread, 2 points)
- break 1.5800
- BUY opening 1.5807
Here is another one: